To The Moon

I came across a post from Zack Investment that was an ‘interesting’ read; so I thought I’d share it here with anyone who is interested.

As usual, Q3 reporting season will officially start when US big banks release their earnings on Tue, 14 Oct 2025.

When it happens, nearly 24 S&P 500 companies would have already shared theirs, setting the tone for US market.

For a start, Zack Investment have included the last corporate earnings from major IT companies Adobe and Oracle in their forecast, staging for the broader Q3 2025 reporting season.

$Adobe(ADBE)$.

Although, it has beaten expectations and slightly raised guidance, the results did little to change the prevailing negative outlook.

The concern is ADBE may struggle to maintain its software leadership in an AI-driven world.

ADBE’s stock has fallen about ⅓ over the past year, underperforming both the broader market and the tech sector. (see below)

As of 29 Sep 2025 closing

ADBE’s fiscal year ends in November 2025, making its next quarter the fiscal fourth.

Current estimates call for FY earnings growth of +12%, on +9.6% higher revenue.

For 2026, earnings are projected to grow +12.8% with revenue up +9.2%.

While these numbers are consistent with recent performance, sentiment has turned bearish, leading ADBE to trade at its lowest valuation multiple in over a decade.

Key debate centres around whether ADBE is genuinely value opportunity or a long-term value trap ?

Similarly, $Alphabet(GOOG)$ faces a similar issue with skepticism over the long-term strength of its search dominance, though it has other businesses to fall back on.

Still, risks to its core search business is real and remains significant.

$Oracle(ORCL)$.

In contrast, ORCL shares have surged +70.31.65 YTD (as of 29 Sep 2025 closing) vs GOOG’s +28.19% YTD. (see below)

As of 29 Sep 2025 closing

ORCL’s earnings were exceptionally strong, with backlog growth and guidance far exceeding analysts’ optimistic projections.

Note: As shared in my post dated 16 Sep 2025, ORCL’s numbers are not as rosy as media made it out to be. Click here ! , know the “truth”. Help Repost that post so more will know too. Tks !

S&P 500’s Q3 2025 Forecast

Wall Street’s assessment of S&P 500’s Q3 earnings is they expect it to rise +5.1% YoY, with revenues up +6%. (see below)

Q3 2025 Earnings growth estimates (bi-weekly)

This is a contrast from its earlier quarter growth of +12.5% (in Q2) and +12.3% (in Q1) respectively.

If actual growth comes in at +5.1%, it will be the weakest pace since Q3 2023, when growth was +4.4%.

Since July 2025, Q3 earnings estimates have:

• Increased for 5 of 16 sectors, that include Technology, Finance, and Energy sectors.

• Decreased for remaining 11 sectors that include Medical, Transportation, Basic Materials, and Consumer Staples.

Interestingly, combined gains, from Technology & Finance, account for more than 50% of total S&P 500 earnings and have outweighed declines in remaining 11 sectors.

Tech Sector - Saviour of S&P 500 ?

Technology is expected to remain the main growth driver in Q3, with sector earnings projected to rise +12% on +12.5% higher revenue. (see below)

Without Technology’s contribution, overall S&P 500 earnings would grow only +2%, instead of +5.1%.

Tech sector - Quarterly growth rates

Above charts S&P 500’s Tech sector’s quarterly —earnings & revenue growth comparing (a) expectations for Q3 2025 with actual growth for the preceding two periods and (b) expectations for following three quarters - Q4 2025, Q1 2026 & Q2 2026.

Q3 2025 Tech earnings growth estimates (bi-weekly)

• Q3 estimates for Tech sector have been trending higher since the quarter got underway. (see above)

As of 29 Sep 2025 closing

Cross reference with $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ yielded the same conclusion. (see above)

The S&P 500 experienced its biggest decline in early April 2025, when Trump unveiled its “Liberation Day” tariffs; causing market to fall by -6.82% on a single day.

Thereafter, it commences the long march to recovery exceeding 02 Jan 2025’s 231.97 level on 02 May 2025 and has never looked back.

S&P 500 Earnings - Big Picture.

(1) Quarterly.

S&P 500 Quarterly earnings & revenue

The chart above shows estimates for the S&P 500 index for Q3 earnings and revenue growth, in the context of (a) preceding 4quarters and (b) coming 3 quarters.

(2) Annually.

Above chart below shows overall S&P 500’s earnings (annual) picture on a calendar-year basis.

Overall earnings picture for the S&P 500 shows projected EPS of:

• $257.93 in 2025.

• $290.26 in 2026.

My viewpoints: (mine only)

Conclusions derived from above historical data and analysis is:

S&P 500 Tech Sector.

For Q3 2025:

• The S&P 500 Technology sector is expected to see earnings grow by +12.0% and revenues by +12.5%.

• This will be a notable slowdown from previous 2 quarters, that saw much stronger growth.

• Q1 2025 had earnings up +24.1% and revenues up +11.3%.

• Q2 2025 showed earnings up 21.8% and revenues up +14.3%.

Looking ahead, next three quarters : modest gains have been projected

• Q4 2025 earnings are estimated to rise +7.8% and revenues +11.0%.

• Q1 2026, the sector could see earnings up +11.5% and revenues up +12.3%.

• Q2 2026, growth rebounds somewhat, with earnings up +16.2% and revenues up +10.3%.

Overall S&P 500.

For Q3 2025:

• The S&P 500 is expected to post earnings growth of +5.1% and revenue growth of +6.0% YoY.

• This shows a clear slowdown compared to Q2 2025 (earnings up 12.5%, revenues up 6.2%) and Q1 2025 (earnings up 12.3%, revenues up 4.7%).

Looking ahead, next three quarters :

• Q4 2025 is projected to be slightly stronger with earnings growth of +6.9% and revenues up +6.6%.

• In Q1 2026, estimates rise to +9.2% for earnings and +6.4% for revenues.

• By Q2 2026, growth continues with earnings up +10.3% and revenue up +5.7%.

In summary, Q3 2025 is supposed to be the weakest period in recent quarters, with trends pointing to gradual improvement in overall earnings and revenue growth for the S&P 500 through early 2026.

Is now the time to start taking profits and build up the cash coffer, ready to buy the dip selectively, with focus on Technology, Finance and Energy ? What do you think ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• INTC Wins in NVDA $5 Billion Investment ? Mon, 29 September. Idea post.

• Will US Market Crash Due To Govt Shutdown? Mon, 29 September. Pick post.

• VRT is still a "Cool" Buy, Citibank says ! Wed, 24 September. Pick post.

• Do you think most S&P 500 companies will report a weaker Q3 2025 earnings?

• Do you think tech stock $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ will report a better Q3 earnings compared to its Q2 and Q1 earnings ?

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