🚨🐻 Tesla’s Textbook Bearish Engulfing… or Just a Shakeout? 🍔📈
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Direxion Daily TSLA Bull 2X Shares(TSLL)$ $YIELDMAX TSLA OPTION INCOME STRATEGY ETF(TSLY)$ 03Oct25 NZT 🇳🇿
I’m watching this Tesla candle closely, because what we saw was a textbook bearish engulfing daily bar: –5.11%, closing at $436.00 after hitting a new 2025 high earlier in the session. Historically, Tesla doesn’t hand out two consecutive red daily candles lightly. The last three big red days all closed near their session lows… and every single one was followed by a gap up and a green close the very next day.
Daily structure is fascinating. We’ve now got a clean bearish engulfing after three consecutive gap-ups, each stair-stepping the rally higher. Support is being tested right at $436 — which, not coincidentally, is the Point & Figure support zone with a bullish price objective still pointing to $514.82. Lose that level decisively, and we start eyeing the $395 Musk $1B buy zone and even the $338.50 compensation plan level. But hold it… and the setup remains very much alive.
📊 Technical Picture: Clean, Compressed, and Decisive
• Daily candle: Bearish engulfing (-5.11%), closed at $436, EMA(13) at $434.30
• ATH: $488.54 remains overhead
• P&F Chart: Double top breakout on 01Oct25; bullish target $514.82
• Keltner/Bollinger bands: Price pulled back to mid-channel after tagging upper band extremes. Current structure mirrors prior pullback setups from November 2024 and February 2025.
• 30-min chart: Breakdown retested intraday; price stabilising above lower Keltner support with overnight futures already ticking up.
🌙 Overnight Setup: Green After Red
Tesla closed red, but is already +$5.50 (+1.35%) overnight. This is precisely the “red day + green overnight = next day gap and green” scenario highlighted in the historical cheat sheet. If this repeats, Tesla could be setting up for a sharp reflex move tomorrow. If not, we’ll know very quickly whether this was a short-term flush or the start of real distribution.
🧠 Sentiment vs Reality
Funny how sentiment flipped instantly. Today’s close felt like a funeral for many traders, even though this was the same day we printed new 2025 highs. Every prior “end of the world” candle since August has turned into a buyable shakeout. The last time Tesla printed back-to-back red days was over $100 lower than today.
🍔 Tesla Diner Fun Fact
Tesla’s California Diner just served 50,000 burgers in Q3, averaging 694 burgers per day in only 72 days. That rivals major fast-food chains. Who knew Musk’s next TAM expansion might involve burgers? 😅
📅 Game Plan
Tomorrow’s session is all about defending the $436 level.
• Above $436: The bearish candle is neutralised, and bulls can make a case for a gap-and-go toward $460+.
• Below $436: $395 is the next major line in the sand. A failure here would open the door for deeper retracement toward $338.50.
I’m positioning with a defensive mindset. A single green daily close would immediately negate today’s bearish signal and set the stage for a run back toward $470–$488. A failure would confirm this as the first genuine momentum shift since the August breakout.
👉❓Do you think this was the first crack in Tesla’s uptrend… or just another head-fake to shake out weak hands?
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Trade like a boss! Happy trading ahead, Cheers, BC 📈🚀🍀🍀🍀
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