To The Moon

On 26 Aug 2025, I have a post on then rising stock $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$. click here ! to read about it.

Besides talking about CRWV, I had compared it to $NEBIUS(NBIS)$, that I still feel has a more compelling value proposition.

Of course, at the end of the day, its really investors confidence over a stock when it comes to purchase as both stocks are still in the red.

Fast forward 2½ months later, I came across below article that I feel is an unbiased account of CRWV.

Sharing it here for all to read & learn at the same time, for one last time.

Company Profile.

CRWV is a data center company focused exclusively on AI infrastructure, having pivoted from Ethereum mining in 2022.

It provides specialized computing power, mainly through over 250,000 $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ GPUs, to large companies and AI labs for training and running AI models.

NVDA - the Investor.

NVDA is a major investor with about $4 billion in CRWV shares and supports CRWV by (a) buying up any unsold shares during its March 2025 IPO and (b) agreeing to buy excess CRWV data center’s capacity.

Financial Maneuver

Financially, CRWV has been “creative” using the NVDA GPUs chips it owns, as collateral for loans:

• First $2.3 billion at an effective 15% interest rate.

• Then $7.5 billion at 10%, extended by $400 million at 9%.

• Finally, a third loan also at 9%.

All loans carry floating rates and are secured by GPUs and data centers through special purpose vehicles (SPVs), that help shield assets and reduce capital costs.

Friends & ‘Foes’ ?

Below are CRWV’s top 3 largest customers that comes with its associated risks.

(1) $Microsoft(MSFT)$.

• MSFT is CRWV’s largest customer.

• Making up 71% and 67% of CRWV’s revenue in Q2 & Q3 respectively.

• Due to CRWV’s data centre delays, MSFT reportedly scaled back its commitments.

• Microsoft also skipped a $12 billion capacity purchase option, possibly tied to changes in its partnership with OpenAI.

• As MSFT continues to expand its data center network and rely on in-house AI chips, positioning it as both customer and potential competitor to CRWV.

(2) OpenAI.

• OpenAI signed a 5-year, $11.9 billion deal with CRWV in March 2025.

• It later expanded it to $22.4 billion, alongside a $350 million investment.

• The contract allows termination if performance targets are missed.

• The contract is “risky” for 2 reasons. (1) OpenAI remains unprofitable. (2) It plans to rely on its (own) “Stargate” data center, projected to supply 75% of its computing by 2030.

• Quite likely that OpenAI may not renew its contract with CRWV if all goes according to plan.

(3) $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$.

• Meta entered into a $14 billion contract thru 2031.

• Like MSFT & OpenAI, it is building its own facilities, financed by its recently concluded $30 billion bond sales.

Unfortunately, the top 3 customers are also building their own data centers and AI chips, potentially becoming competitors.

NVDA - the Customer.

Besides being an investor, NVDA is also the #2 key ‘silent’ customer, after MSFT.

Confused yet ?

NVDA has committed $1.3 billion to rent chips, plus a $6.3 billion contract offering CRWV flexibility with capacity allocation (interrupt delivery).

Many has broadly interpreted this as NVDA backstopping CRWV’s demand, though it does not mean that NVDA will buy all of CoreWeave’s unused capacity.

Revenue vs Debt vs Credit Facility vs Others.

Revenue.

Upcoming revenues include nearly $50 billion in remaining performance obligations (RPO) are expected by September 2027.

Debt.

CRWV faces heavy debt challenges with:

• $14 billion already owed as of September 2025.

• High interest expenses $310 million vs $51.9 million operating income, non-investment grade credit ratings, and multiple complex loans through subsidiaries.

• Technical defaults have occurred but were waived.

This heavy interest cost reflects CRWV’s junk bond credit rating, indicating a high risk of default and costly borrowing.

Credit Facility.

Besides mounting debt, CRWV also have a $650 million revolving credit agreement with JPMorgan Chase.

• It has expanded to $1.5 billion in May 2025.

• And further ballooned to $2.5 billion in November 2025.

As of end Q3 2025, CRWV had drawn down $700 million of credit facility.

Others.

There are senior notes, a loan from Magnetar, and vendor financing.

Power Challenge.

Energy is a critical constraint for any AI data centers.

This has prompted CRWV to secure over 500 MW of power via agreements with Core Scientific, a former Bitcoin miner with valuable long-term power contracts.

A Ticking Time Bomb.

If you look carefully, CRWV is trapped in a vicious cycle, where failure of one risk factor will cause the other to escalate, leading to a total collapse and vice versa.

(1) Risk - Financial.

Currently, CRWV faces heavy debt challenges:

• As of 30 Sep 2025, it already has chalked up a $14 billion debt, that includes $3.6 billion due by mid-2026.

• Quarterly interest expenses reached $311 million, with annual estimates at $1.25 billion

• CRWV’s expenses far exceed its operating income of $51.9 million.

• Technical defaults have occurred but were waived.

Additionally, CRWV has a less-than-desired complex loan structure, including several delayed draw term loans (DDTLs) secured through special purpose vehicles, creating vulnerability.

These loans have variable interest rates tied to customer payments, and failure by a major client like OpenAI to meet payments could trigger loan defaults.

CoreWeave has already violated terms on a $7.6 billion loan, causing a technical default that was (thankfully) waived by lenders but highlights the fragility of CRWV’s financial position.

(2) Risk - Operational.

CRWV’s operational risks intensify its financial situation.

It means any delay in its (a) data center construction, (b) power supply bottlenecks, and (c) possibility of large customers turning into competitors add to CRWV’s challenges.

While contracts and backlogs are large, execution risks may delay or reduce revenue.

My Viewpoint (mine only).

After reading the rather lengthy post, the first question that came to mind was - did CRWV bite off more than it could chew ?

In 2021, it was an Ethereum mining company.

By 2022, it has pivoted and became a data center, renting out its computing infrastructures for clients’ AI projection uses; operating as a landlord for computing power.

I cannot help but feels that NVDA has been the devil’s advocate behind the scene.

How do you account for the fact that it is both an investor & customer, all rolled into one through a complex web of arrangements.

Stock Movement.

With the recent run on AI-related stocks thanks to (a) Softbank, (b) Michael Burry and (c) Peter Thiel, CRWV was not spared either.

It has fallen from its June 2025 peak of $183.58 per share.

As of 21 Nov 2025, it ended the day at $71.65, -59% off its peak.

CRWV is significantly below its moving averages (ma) of 20-day ($102.21), 50-day ($119.43), and 100-day ($118.05), indicating a strong bearish market sentiment, as stock price is trading well under key support levels set by the moving averages.

In fact, the ma now act as resistance levels, with CRWV facing difficulty rising back above these prices in the near term.

CRWV’s RSI reading of 24.24 signals the stock is oversold.

After reading The Verge post, I am having 2nd thoughts about buying the dip. It looks good for a less than 5 years pun; not a long-term investment. Too risky - agree ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Due to creative differences and bias, I will scale back my posting.

My 2,430 ‘timeless’ posts remain available (for now) for those who value fundamentals as Mr Buffett had pointed — invest in businesses, not pick stocks.

To new subscribers, no flashy screens to entice blind investing. I aim to share on how to fish, not fish for you.

I’m grateful to share what I know. In the alternate moo moo universe, where I am valued & appreciated, I will still be sharing. Good luck on your i-journey.

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• Do you think CRWV is a ticking time bomb ’?

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