To The Moon

I wonder if you noticed that there is a new kid on the block when it comes to AI infrastructure provider. Well, not that “new” actually.

It had hogged a bit of headlines back in March 2025. (see below)

What stock is it ? It is none other than $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$.

Having IPO almost 6 months ago, on 28 Mar 2025, it is timely to take a look at its overall performance so far…

What is CRWV ?

• It is a cloud computing company specializing in GPU-based infrastructure for AI and machine learning workloads.

• It provides scalable, high-performance GPU compute power through its network of data centers.

• Clients use CoreWeave’s platform to run demanding AI, graphics, and compute-intensive applications without owning hardware.

• The company serves a range of customers, from startups to major tech firms like Microsoft and OpenAI.

• CoreWeave also partners with industry leaders such as Nvidia to optimize its AI infrastructure solutions.

[Note] On 14 May 2025, it was confirmed that NVDA owned about 24.2 million CRWV shares as of Q1 2025, with a market value close to $1.6 billion.

Since IPO.

On 28 Mar 2025, CRWV held its initial public offering (IPO) with a $40 per share price tag.

At its peak, it has skyrocketed by +458.95% ending at $183.58 per share on 20 Jun 2025.

Fortunately or unfortunately, it has since mellowed to $91.52 (as of 20 Aug 2025). (see below)

Motley Fool declared that makes CRWV a candidate to be the "next” Palantir, meaning the next AI stock to generate blockbuster returns in a relatively short period.

Really ? I have my reservations. Let’s dig deeper..

Valuation Propositions.

Why are analysts so overtly optimistic about CRWV ? What are its “value propositions” ?

CoreWeave offers GPU cloud infrastructure (not the ordinary cloud infra) and software services. -

• Meaning, its data centers are purpose-built to support (a) artificial intelligence and (b) other high-performance computing workloads that require GPU acceleration.

Secondly, it has scored very highly at the MLPerf benchmarks, unbiased tests that evaluate the performance of AI hardware, software, and services across training and inference workloads.

On 14 May 2025, CRWV reported an “impressive” first-quarter financial results since going public.

Q1 2025 Report Card.

CoreWeave performance in comparison with LSEG consensus:

Net loss translates to Loss per share

• Loss per share: Loss of -$1.49 vs Q1 2024’s loss per share of -$0.62, that is a +140% YoY loss. (see above)

• Revenue: $981.6 million vs $853 million expected vs Q1 2024’s $189 million, that’s a +420% YoY gain. (see above)

Long Term Interest.

Interest payments explain the difference between CoreWeave’s adjusted operating income and adjusted net income.

Building AI infrastructure is expensive, and CoreWeave owes $7.8 billion in long-term debt and leases.

• In Q1 2025 alone, it paid $264 million in interest on this debt.

• This means interest payments took up > ¼ of CRWV’s revenue.

• Meaning, a big part of CRWV’s income goes toward paying interest on its loans.

Q2 2025 Report Card.

On 12 Aug 2025, CRVW reported its Q2 earnings. Based on LSEG estimates:

• Loss per share : was -$0.60 vs Q2 2024’s -$1.62; that’s a +62.96% YoY improvement.

• Revenue: was $1.21 billion vs $1.08 billion expected vs Q2 2024’s 395.37 million, that’s a +206.11% YoY gain.

• Operating margin: fell by -18% to 2% from 20% a year ago, due primarily to $145 million in stock-based compensation costs.

• Operating expenses: rose to $1.19 billion vs Q2 2024’s $317.65 million; that’s nearly +274.56% YoY increase in expenditure; not a good sign when compared to revenue’s growth.

Q3 Guidance / Outlook.

For current quarter (Q3 2025), CRVW anticipates:

• Revenue: to come in between $1.26 - $1.30 billion vs analysts’ expectations of $1.25 billion.

• Revenue (FY 2025) : to come in between $5.15 - $5.35 billion vs analysts’ expectations of $5.05 billion; that’s a +174% growth rate; up from May 2025’s forecast of $4.9 - $5.1 billion.

Strategic Acquisition.

Just this May 2025, CRWV completed acquisition of AI developer platform Weights & Biases, that extends the utility of its platform.

CRWV provides (the GPU-accelerated) infrastructure required for AI workloads.

Weights & Biases on the other hand provides:

• Tools developers need to train & evaluate AI models.

• Services that monitor performances of AI applications.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratios.

CRWV’s price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is about 18x its yearly sales, making it

Comparatively speaking, its as-closed peers eg. $Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$ P/S is 31x, while $Microsoft(MSFT)$ P/S is 13x sales.

It is neither cheap nor very expensive, at the moment.

Peers Comparison.

Actually Cloudflare and Microsoft are not exact apple-to-apple peers.

After digging a bit more, the closer fit are actually:

• $NEBIUS(NBIS)$.

• $DigitalOcean Holdings, Inc.(DOCN)$.

Due to real estate, I will focus on Nebius Group only.

History.

Nebius’s original name was Yandex N.V, or ‘popularly’ known in EU as the “Google of Russia”, is headquartered in Amsterdam.

On 24 May 2011, Yandex raised $1.3 billion in an IPO on Nasdaq. Back then, it was the biggest IPO for a dot-com company since Google's offering in 2004.

In February 2022, Yandex was suspended for trading (on Nasdaq), due to international sanctions during Russia invasion of Ukraine.

In July 2024, it sold Yandex to a consortium of Russian investors, retaining several businesses that operated outside of Russia.

It was renamed Nebius Group and In October 2024, it was permitted to resume trading on Nasdaq.

Core Business.

Nebius Group’s core business model revolves around AI-Infrastructure-as-a-Service.

The company offers on-demand access to high-performance GPU computing so that clients can train and deploy AI models without managing any hardware​.

Its offerings in total:

• Nebius AI - A cloud platform designed for AI deployment & machine learning;

• Toloka AI - Focuses on generative AI applications like model training & data generation.

• Avride - Provider of autonomous vehicle solutions for logistics & ride-hailing.

• TripleTen - An EdTech platform that equips learners with STEM and tech skills.

By now, investors should be clear that when Ai-infrastructure and comparison with Coreweave is concerned, focus is on Nebius AI; not the group conglomerate that included 3 other divisions.

Did you know:

• Just last 02 Dec 2024, it was announced that Nvidia invested in NBIS during a $700 million private placement financing round.

• Nvidia’s participation was confirmed in Nebius’s official press release and through regulatory filings, with Nvidia purchasing nearly 1.2 million shares during Q4 2024.

Q1 2025 Earnings

As of Q1 2025, Nebius AI is not yet profitable.

However, this division is narrowing its losses and is expected to reach profitability soon, but has not yet reported positive EBITDA or net income.

• Loss per share: came in at -$0.43 vs -$0.45 expected vs Q1 2024’s $0.37, that’s a -216.21% YTD decline. (see above)

• Revenue: came in at $55.3 million vs $57.73 million expected vs Q1 2024’s $11.48 million, that’s a +385% YoY gain, driven largely by Nebius AI, core infrastructure business. (see above)

• Optimistically, NBIS costs of revenue has fallen to 53% from 78%, leading to higher gross margins and improved financial health.

Personal Viewpoints: (mine only)

If you asked me, I don’t think there are many differences separating the two stocks:

• Both are still in the red in earnings department.

• Both are “owned’ by Nvidia, hence their direct access to NVDA’s latest chips supply.

• For NBIS, its longtime focus of not just on renting but help its customers manage those chips is a plus.

• Coupled with a streamlined, developer-friendly NBIS platform is more appealing to less sophisticated customers, not just the largest tech behemonths.

• Perhaps, the biggest bias is CRWV is a US-based listed company while NBIS is Netherland-based.

• Like it or not, traders are bias & discriminating; not unless non-US listed companies consistently, have stellar quarterly earnings outcome that defy analysts’ estimates.

Insider’s Sell Out.

• On Thu, 14 Aug 2025 CRVW’s lock-up period officially expired.

• Immediately, there was a huge rush of insider’s selling to the tune of more than $1 billion of block trades in CoreWeave shares; jointly organized by Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. (see below)

• Even CRWV’s Director Jack Cogen, was involved in the selling with an aggregate market value of nearly $300 million, according to company filings.

• Visually and pyschologically, it does not bode well for CRVW’s company image.

• Needless to say, retail investors’ who are “unaware” about the lock-up period were left holding the falling knives.

Why CRWV or NBIS ?

In the midst of the diggings, the nagging question in my mind was why CRWV or NBIS instead of the more established cloud providers like MSFT, AMZN or even GOOG.

Isn’t this already a solved problem with Azure, AWS or GCP ?

Apparently not !

While hyperscalers dominate the market, they can be seriously expensive and often lack the specialization needed for modern ML/AI workloads.

This is especially true when it comes to:

• Real-time training.

• Inference.

• Cluster-level performance.

Choosing a GPU cloud provider becomes a high-stakes decision for any AI/ML team.

It’s not just about clock speed (FLOPS) but whether one’s models will train faster, deploy more reliably, and scale more affordably in practice.

Last but not least, its about whether a user/customer’s team has the infrastructure skills to make it work.

Looks like newly listed Tech stocks are not for the faint heart or its more of a “speculative” fun while it lasted. Is it any wonder why they do not form part of any investment gurus’ portfolio?

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• Do you think CRWV is the next Palantir when there is nothing common between them ’?

• Do you think CRWV is a “bias” better bet than NBIS, other than it is US-based ?

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