To The Moon

While browsing through the list of ‘suggested’ posts, a title caught my eye (see below), and I thought I might learn something new while reading.

After reading, I feel that it’s worth the while to share what I have read, with a twist though.

Here goes something or nothing, depends on how one interprets the post.

Intro.

On 14 Jan 2026, Macro Risk Advisors’ John Kolovos appeared on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to talk about the base case for equity markets.

His base case for the S&P 500 in 2026, is around the 7600 or so level.

According to him, this year is more about getting the rotations and the risk management right.

He also expressed worry associated with (a) mid-term elections, and (b) volatility they tend to bring with them.

At the same time, he half expected some kind of downside chop weakness mid-year.

Although, Kolovos thinks it may happen sooner rather than later, and may be the early part of Q1 2026, going up to -16%, even a little bit more.

With these trends in view, below are the best stocks to buy in 2026 for beginners.

Methodology Used.

Blue chip ETFs, wide moat ETFs, and quality ETFs were reviewed to come up with the list of best stocks for beginners, that analysts are bullish on.

Then the top 12 were selected and sorted in ascending order of hedge fund holders, with the highest number of hedge fund holders as of Q3 2025.

Below are the twelve recommended stocks, ranked in ascending order.

1. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

2. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

3. Meta Platforms, Inc. (META)

4. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)

5. Broadcom Inc. (AVGO)

6. Visa Inc. (V)

7. Netflix, Inc. (NFLX)

8. Uber Technologies, Inc. (UBER)

9. UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH)

10. Mastercard Incorporated (MA)

11. Capital One Financial Corporation (COF)

12. Oracle (ORCL).

Due to real estate challenge, I will focus on two stocks - MSFT and ORCL only.

What Was Published.

$Microsoft(MSFT)$

Analyst Upside: 38.18%

Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 312

MSFT is one of the best stocks to buy in 2026 for beginners.

On 14 Jan 2026, Morgan Stanley reaffirmed a Buy rating on MSFT and set a price target of $650.

Separately on 13 Jan 2026, MSFT announced a new plan to manage its data centers.

The company aims to reduce its impact on water usage and power costs for local communities.

To achieve this, MSFT is committed to paying utility rates high enough to cover its own energy expenses.

The company also plans to work with local utilities for the expansion of supply, where and when needed, for its data centers.

Vice Chair and President, Brad Smith, said in a statement:

• MSFT pledged to replenish more water than the amount consumed by its data centers.

• The company will also start to publish information detailing water use in each data center region in the US, alongside its progress on replenishment.

Reuters reported the same day that MSFT did not respond to a request regarding the financial details of its initiative.

MSFT develops and supports services, software, devices, and solutions.

It operates through the Intelligent Cloud, Productivity and Business Processes, and More Personal Computing segments.

$Oracle(ORCL)$

Analyst Upside: 20.96% | Number of Hedge Fund Holders: 140

ORCL is one of the best stocks to buy in 2026 for beginners.

On 14 Jan 2026, KeyBanc reiterated a Buy rating on ORCL and set a price target of $300.

The rating update came the same day ORCL announced the signing of a new cloud agreement with the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD).

This will enable the MoD to rapidly transition from legacy technology systems to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI).

The agreement supports the Ministry’s modernization goals, effective use of critical data to bolster the national security of the region, and adoption of new AI capabilities.

The cloud agreement between ORCL and MoD allows access to OCI to support the modernisation and consolidation of legacy systems.

Jason Rees, senior vice president of Technology Engineering, Oracle EMEA, stated that the migration of work loads to Oracle Cloud Infrastructure would allow the sophisticated use of data and AI to bolster national security for the UK without complicated and costly rewrites, with OCI’s in-built security and AI solutions offering a strong foundation for improved decision making, faster innovation, and mission-ready capabilities.

ORCL provides products & services addressing aspects of corporate IT environments, including applications and infrastructure technologies.

The company’s operations are divided into the following business segments:

• Cloud and License.

• Hardware.

• Services.

My viewpoints : (mine only).

To be frank, I have “issues” with the recommendation list.

Firstly, I have done a double-take to verify the post’s published date - it was 16 Jan 2026.

Personally, I feel the recommendation list is outdated.

If it is to be referenced, it serves only as a guide; not even a recommendation.

This is because so much have evolved at the political front that it is having easily affected 58% of the stocks on the recommendation list.

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

Case: Neutral.

Microsoft remains a dominant force in the AI sector.

However, the investment case is (now) clouded by one of the most significant legal battles in Silicon Valley history.

On 16 Jan 2026, the legal war with Elon Musk reached a boiling point that investors can no longer ignore.  

The $134 Billion Threat

Elon Musk has demanded between $79 - $134 billion in damages from OpenAI & Microsoft.  

• His legal team claims that MSFT "wrongfully gained" approximately $13.3 - $25.1 billion by "aiding and abetting" OpenAI’s transition from a non-profit to a for-profit entity.  

• While MSFT’s cash reserves (approx. $75 billion) are substantial, a potential jury trial set for late April 2026 in Oakland, California, creates a massive "headline risk".

• Assuming MSFT wins, the lawsuit’s discovery process, that has already unsealed sensitive internal emails from CEO, Satya Nadella, could reveal strategic secrets that competitors could use.

OpenAI "Black Box” Dependency.

The lawsuit also highlighted a vulnerability.

• That is MSFT’s AI lead is heavily reliant on a partner currently undergoing a radical and legally contested restructuring.

Restructuring Turmoil:

• OpenAI recently announced a transition to a full for-profit model to keep MSFT’s 27% stake intact.

• Musk is seeking an injunction to stop this.

• His action could - freeze or complicate, integration of OpenAI models into MSFT’s Azure and Copilot services.  

Internal Doubt:

• Unsealed diary entries from OpenAI’s president, Greg Brockman, suggested that the "non-profit" label may have been a facade as early as 2015.

• This raises "Governance Risk" for MSFT, as institutional investors (ESGs) dislike backing companies tied to potential fraud litigation.  

Fundamental : Azure AI Surge

Despite the legal drama, MSFT’s "engine" is still firing on all cylinders.

• For Q3 2025, Azure revenue growth reached a staggering 39%, with AI services contributing roughly 16% of that total growth.  

• MSFT has successfully converted its early OpenAI investment into a $13 billion annual revenue run rate for AI alone.

• Over 80% of Fortune 500 companies are now locked into the Azure AI Foundry.  

• "Stickiness" of MSFT enterprise ecosystem (Windows + Office 365 + Azure) makes it fairly difficult for customers to leave, even if the legal battles intensify.

CapEx and Margins Warnings.

• Similar to other hyperscalers, MSFT is spending aggressively.

• In Q1 2026, MSFT is forecasted to spend over $30 billion in capital expenditure (Capex).

• Should the Elon Musk trial leads to any form of "disgorgement" OR if SEC begins investigating the "for-profit" transition, the “planned” infrastructure spending to scale OpenAI services could end up looking like a liability rather than an asset.

Technical Analysis.

I think MSFT’s 12 months technical analysis is aligned with my beliefs. (see below)

As of Fri, 16 Jan 2026

Moving Averages.

It’s moving averages (MA) of 20-day ($478.23), 50-day ($484.83) and 200-day ($482.26) are trending above MSFT’s stock price ($459.86).

It strongly implies a bearish trend, indicating significant selling pressure and loss of investor confidence, with the shorter MAs confirming bearish momentum and the 200-day MA acting as a key resistance level.

It hints of further declines and a possible long-term downtrend, with Trump’s geopolitical antics at full play.

MACD.

MSFT’s MACD line (-6.54) sitting well below both the zero line and its signal line (-4.48).

The negative divergence (-2.06) confirms strong, expanding bearish momentum.

This setup indicates a sustained downward trajectory, suggesting that the asset may continue to seek lower support levels.

RSI.

With RSI (14 day) coming in at 50.73, MSFT is in neutral momentum, indicating a balance where bullish (buying) and bearish (selling) forces are equal, acting as a centerline.

If MSFT’s RSI is able to rise above 50, it will implay upward momentum (gains outweigh losses).

While a slip below 50 will suggest downward momentum (losses outweigh gains).

Summary.

To me, MSFT is no longer the "set & forget" stock it was in 2024.

• Bull case: Azure continues to outperform AWS and Google Cloud, with Copilot suite becoming an essential productivity tool.

• Bear case: The April 2026 jury trial is a binary event. A negative verdict or an injunction could lead to a massive "disgorgement" of profits and a forced separation from OpenAI’s latest models.

Investors would do well to follow closely, the pre-trial hearings in March 2026.

If the judge allows Musk to pursue "punitive” damages, the stock may see significant volatility.

Oracle (ORCL)

Case: Risky / Bearish Sentiment.

Oracle is facing significant skepticism from high-profile investors like Michael Burry, who has disclosed a short position (via put options) on the stock.  (see below)

The Fundamental Headwinds:

• Oracle is seeing a Free Cash Flow (FCF) deficit ($5.88 billion recently) due to extreme spending on AI data centers.  

Debt Load:

• To compete with MSFT and AMZN, ORCL has taken on massive debt.

• Burry’s thesis is likely that ORCL’s "AI hype" is masking a fragile balance sheet and a cloud strategy that is not as profitable as its peers.  

The Counter-Argument:

• Management points to a $138 billion backlog (RPO) as proof that future revenue is guaranteed.

• Realistically, until (a) the backlog is converted to actual cash flow and (b) debt is paid, ORCL remains a high-risk gamble.  

Burry’s Short Valid ?

Are Burry’s concerns valid despite ORCL's massive growth ?

To confirm, one must look at the "under the hood" financial comparison between ORCL and MSFT.

As of early 2026, the two companies are executing two very different financial strategies for the AI era.

Profitability Gap: MSFT vs ORCL

The fundamental difference lies in how they fund their growth. (see below)

MSFT is spending more than its peers in its AI pursuit and doing so with its own money, protecting shareholders from debt risk.  It is a “safe aggressor”.

ORCL on the other hand has pivoted its entire business to AI infrastructure.

• If "AI Gold Rush" continues for another 5 years, ORCL could become the largest cloud provider in the world.

• If there is a "bubble burst" ORCL’s debt load and negative cash flow make it much more vulnerable to a crash than Microsoft.

• ORCL is the "high-stakes gambler”.

Technical Analysis.

ORCL’s technical analysis outcome is somewhat similar to MSFT. (see below)

Moving Averages (MA).

Like MSFT, ORCL current stock price ($191.09) is trading below its 20-day ($194.66), 50-day ($205.96), and 200-day ($217.75) moving averages.

It is in a Death Cross state, when the 50-day MA crossed below the 200-day MA on 7 Jan 2026.

ORCL is in a confirmed bearish alignment.

The price is not only below its short-term trend but has also broken beneath the 200-day average, that typically serves as the "line in the sand" for long-term health.

Descending order of the averages (200 > 50 > 20) further confirms that downward momentum is accelerating, as the shorter-term averages are falling faster than the long-term trend.

With rising geopolitical tension over Greenland occupation, this will be the dampening effect pushing ORCL lower.

MACD.

ORCL’s MACD line (-5.37) remains below the zero line, although it has crossed above its signal line (-6.36).

The resulting positive divergence (0.99) confirms a shift toward bullish momentum despite the broader downtrend.

This setup indicates a short-term recovery phase, with the positive histogram suggesting that the downward pressure is diminishing and ORCL may be enter a relief rally.

The latter just may spell true, if its earnings for 4th quarter of 2025, continue to show that backlog are converted into actual revenue.

RSI.

ORCL’s RSI of 49.35 indicates a neutral market condition where buying and selling momentum are currently balanced. 

Summary.

Looking at ORCL’s MACD and RSI, the indicators are showing a mixed but transitioning signal.

The long-term trend remains bearish, and immediate momentum has actually shifted to bullish.

ORCL is currently in a "Counter-Trend” rally:

• Long-term structure is still weak (MACD < 0), but immediate price action is moving upward.

• Watch for the RSI to break above 50 and MACD to move toward the zero line as confirmation that a small bounce is turning into a real trend reversal.

I supposed there are many investors who are still holding onto the hope that ORCL will be able to reclaim its 52-week peak of $345.72.

After all that has been said and done, are you still bullish about MSFT & ORCL ?

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

• No Cuts & Sticky Inflation, What to invest ?

• MP Materials: $100 Target, Back in Sight ?

• INTC Q4 Earnings leads to Breakout Rally ?

• Do you think MSFT is a “safer” bet than ORCL in the AI-race’?

• Do you think ORCL is over bullish about its data centre, with only a few major clients who are renting now while their own data centre is being built?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

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