To The Moon

🌟🌟🌟The market is in mayhem today, pushed in 3 directions at the same time and none of them are gentle.  

First, January's non farm payrolls smashed expectations: 130,000 vs 55,000 jobs expected.  Unemployment fell to  to 4.3% instead of 4.4% expected.  A labour market this strong gives the Fed zero urgency to cut.  Traders have now pushed the first rate cut from June to July with March rate cut odds collapsing and the probability of no change to above 94%.

Second, delayed rate cuts mean the market's upside may stay capped in the near term.  Hot jobs mean sticky inflation.  Sticky inflation means delayed easing.  And delayed easing means the market's upside may stay capped in the near term.

Third, geopolitical tensions are simmering, especially with Iran back in the headlines.  Oil markets twitch.  Safe haven flows stir.  Every headline reminds investors that the world is still fragile and risk can reprice in seconds.

This is where emotional discipline becomes a superpower.

In the short term, the market is a voting machine - reacting to every data point, every rumour, every geopolitical flare up.

But in the long term, the market becomes a weighing machine - rewarding fundamentals, resilience and time in the market.

That is why I stay the course and continue to in vest.

STI ETF: My Singapore Anchor Just Hit an All Time High 

While global markets wobble, $STI ETF(ES3.SI)$  quietly hit an all time high yesterday.  It is a timely reminder that stability still has a place in a noisy world.

Its top holdings include the 3 Singapore major banks DBS, OCBC and UOB as well as Singtel , Keppel Ltd, Jardine Matheson Holdings, ST Engineering, SGX, Capitaland Integrated Commercial Trust and Hong Kong Land Ltd.

STI ETF is the first and oldest ETF in Singapore designed to track the Straits Times Index with a market capitalisation of SGD 2.8 billion.

It has a low expense ratio of 0.28% and pays dividends twice a year.    The current dividend yield is 5.28%.

Performance wise STI ETF is up 5.4% year todate and in 2025, it has risen by 32%.

JPMorgan has projected a bull case target of 6,500 for the STI by the end of 2026.  This forecast follows a historic milestone for the index which crossed the psychologically significant 5,000 mark for the first time ever on 12 February 2026.

JPMorgan's target is underpinned by optimistic corporate earnings, a strong Singapore dollar and the government 's ongoing Equity Market Development Programme (EQDP) aimed at revitalising local stocks.

Surprisingly STI ETF has significantly outperformed $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$  year todate.  STI ETF is up 5.8% while  SPY is only  0.5% up.  SPY has struggled to find momentum in 2026 as it faced increasing volatility as "AI exhaustion" weighed on its heavy tech weightings.

SPYM ETF - My Low Cost US Growth Workhorse 

While STI ETF gives me stability , SPYM gives me exposure to America's innovation engine - the companies shaping global technology, productivity and long term growth.  

I call SPYM, my mini SPY.  Both ETFs are managed by State Street Global Advisors, the 4th largest fund manager in the US .  However while SPY's expense ratio is 0.09%, SPYM is only 0.02%, the lowest among competing ETFs, putting more money back into my pockets over a long term horizon.  Both ETFs track the S&P500 Index , the best 500 US mega cap stocks.

Even though SPYM has lagged behind the Singapore STI ETF, it is not "out" because its underlying index remains on a historic upward trajectory , recently breaching the 7,000 milestone in 2026.

Despite short term pullbacks, the S&P500 is supported by record breaking free cash flow from its top holdings and an AI "supercycle" that analysts believe is transitioning from speculative hype into a "marathon" of fundamental earnings growth.

Why SPY and SPYM Remain Resilient in 2026

Earnings over Hype: Unlike the 1990s dot com bubble, 2026's market leaders which include the Magnificent 7, are generating massive, tangible profits.  Analysts project a 14% to 15% annual earnings per share or EPS growth for the S&P500 through to the end of the year.

Broadening Participation: While tech dominated in 2025, early 2026 is seeing a healthy rotation.  The Energy sector has surged 14% in the first 6 weeks of the year, while Health Care and Industrials have also begun to reclaim momentum, creating a more stable foundation to the index.

Supportive Macro Environment: The Fed is now viewed as a tailwind rather than a headwind.  With a potential 2 additional rate cuts in 2026, liquidity is expected to remain high, encouraging continued allocation into US equities.

Ambitious Wall Street Targets: Major banks have raised their 2026 year end targets significantly.  JPMorgan and HSBC see the index reaching 7,500 while Oppenheimer and Deutsche Bank have set even bolder targets of 8,000+.

Key Risks To Watch 

Valuation Stretch: The forward P/E ratio currently sits at 21.5, which is above the 10 year average of 18.8, leaving little room for earnings disappointments.

Concentration: The top 10 stocks now account for nearly 40% of the index's total value, making SPY and SPYM sensitive to any sudden shifts in sentiment among a handful of tech giants.

My Take : SPYM is my way of owning the S&P500 at one of the lowest costs in the world.  It is a clean, efficient compounding machine that does not care about short term fear.

Concluding Thoughts: My Strategy Does Not Change 

Rate cuts may come later.  AI bubble fears may rise.  Volatility may shake the weak hands.  But my discipline stays the same.

I will continue to dollar cost average into STI ETzf and SPYM, the anchors of my portfolio - the quiet engines of resilience and long term compounding.

Because I am not investing for March.  I am investing for the next decade , and the one after that.

Investing is a marathon, not a sprint. 

Sprinting is exhausting.  It requires constant monitoring and high stress.  Marathon investing over time turns modest contributions into massive wealth.  Staying invested through the "boring" miles ensures that I am there for the finish line.

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