To The Moon

Are you remotely interested in ‘feel good’ posts at times like these when wars of different scales keep popping up across the global, keeping unrest at its feet ?

Honestly, I was not.

However, to keep harping about the Middle East conflict is not going to help our mental psyche too.

So I decided to read it, digest it and share it.

Wall Street analysts and forecasters have offered mixed projections for $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ stock at the end of 2026.

Notably, most forecasts center on Nvidia’s:

• Continued expansion in AI infrastructure.

• Rollout of next-generation platforms such as Blackwell and Rubin. 

NVDA’s accelerating data center revenue and leadership in parallel computing also underpin the outlook of most experts. 

Despite broadly bullish projections, NVDA shares have recently moved in line with broader market sentiment.

It remained bearish, triggered by the accelerating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. 

As of Fri, 27 Mar 2026 end day, NVDA was valued at $167.52 /share, down more than 11% YTD. (see above)

Stock Price Outlook.

Below are some of the latest price target forecasts on NVDA.

Evercore ISI.

• Analyst Mark Lipacis maintains the highest target at $352 by the end of 2026.

• The firm has reaffirmed an ‘outperform’ rating, citing potential revenue growth of up to 79% by mid-2026 with strong demand for AI accelerators, and expansion across software, networking, and enterprise adoption.

Wedbush Securities.

• Resident MD Dan Ives forecasted a $250 /share base case for December 2026 back in late 2025, assuming steady annual gains of 15% - 20% during the AI buildout.

• Following NVDA’s stronger earnings and GTC conference updates, he has raised his broader target toward $300, pointing to NVDA’s technological lead and expanding AI use cases.

US Major Banks.

• The likes of $Bank of America(BAC)$, $Citigroup(C)$ and $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, also projected NVDA to be around $300 by the end 2026.

• These estimates reflect expectations of more than $1 trillion in cumulative data center spending through 2027, faster enterprise AI adoption, and additional upside from newer platforms.

Independent analysis.

• Take Keithen Drury (contributing Motley Fool technology analyst) as example.

• He has somewhat similar estimates, projecting a $309 price - based on fiscal 2027 earnings per share of $7.74 and a 40x forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple.

Tailwinds.

Where did such optimism stems from when I cannot even see light at the end of the “Middle East conflict” tunnel ? 

Across forecasts, analysts highlight the following key tailwinds:

Hyperscaler capital spending.

• Largely driven by the ongoing expansion of AI cloud infrastructure by tech giants - $Microsoft(MSFT)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ and $Alphabet(GOOG)$.

• For 2026, projections for data center expenditures reach nearly $400 billion annually as firms race to build "AI Superfactories".

• These entities continue to increase CapEx in GPUs and networking hardware well into 2027 to accommodate the explosive demand for AI inference workloads.

• The hyperscaler spending wave also extends to specialized data centers being built for AI model hosting and inference optimization, with generative AI use cases driving incremental spending.

Shift from training to inference workloads.

• Inference is expected to account for roughly ⅔ of all AI compute by 2026.

• This shift benefits NVDA as its new architectures, like Rubin, are specifically "co-designed" to reduce inference token costs by up to 10x compared to Blackwell.

• More important, the shift also means more stable and recurring revenue for NVDA.

• Instead of one‑time training demand, inference scaling supports sustained GPU utilization, particularly in cloud and edge deployments.

• NVDA’s TensorRT and software suite are crucial differentiators helping it retain market share even as power efficiency and performance‑per‑dollar become key procurement factors.

Sovereign AI initiatives.

• Nation-states are increasingly treating AI as a matter of national security, with an estimated $100 billion in sovereign compute investments expected by the end of 2026 to ensure domestic data residency and model autonomy.

• Countries across Europe, the Middle East, and Asia are all accelerating their national AI programs to develop (a) local LLMs, (b) cybersecurity systems, and (c) digital infrastructure.

• Many of them rely on NVDA systems and CUDA frameworks.

• These initiatives open new procurement channels, particularly in markets seeking technological sovereignty post‑US–China export controls.

Emerging market demand.

• Emerging economies in Southeast Asia, India, and Latin America are expanding their data center capacity and AI adoption, particularly in areas like (a) fintech fraud detection, (b) smart manufacturing, and (c) language models tuned to local contexts.

• NVDA benefits from being the de facto global AI compute standard in these regions.

Last but not least, NVDA’s ability to command premium pricing through its full-stack ecosystem. 

• This includes not only hardware like GPUs but also value‑added software such as CUDA, DGX Cloud, and NVIDIA AI Enterprise, that lock in customers through integrated support and optimization.

• The vertical integration helps sustain high margins even amid potential pricing competition from rivals.

• By controlling everything from the Vera CPU and Rubin GPU to networking switches (Spectrum-X) and software models (Nemotron), NVDA maintains a structural moat that allows for gross margins often exceeding 80%

At the same time, revenue growth for the semiconductor giant is expected to slow from recent peaks but remain strong, with Fiscal 2027 estimates around 60% - 65% YoY.

Headwinds.

On the flip side, potential risks NVDA might encounter :

Potential slowdown in AI spending.

• Global interest rates, cost rationalization among hyperscalers, and potential moderation in enterprise AI pilots transitioning to full deployment could lead to a temporary cap on GPU order volume.

• A flattening pace of large language model (LLM) training investments might slow top‑line momentum relative to 2024–2025 peaks.

• The Middle East unrest has resulted in elevated energy costs - driven by oil prices surging above $100 /barrel.

• This may force data center operators to throttle purchases of power-hungry GPUs in favor of more efficient alternatives.

OpenAI and Anthropic "Independence" Pivot.

• OpenAI has moved to aggressively diversify its hardware stack, entering a multi-year partnership with $Broadcom(AVGO)$ to mass-produce its first custom AI chip, codenamed "Titan" starting in H2 2026.

• At the same time, Anthropic (OpenAI’s main rival), has locked in a deal to deploy up to one million GOOG’s TPUs, effectively bypassing NVDA's supply chain for over a gigawatt of compute capacity.

Rising competition in custom silicon.

• $ARM Holdings(ARM)$ recent entry into proprietary AI silicon adds a new layer of competitive pressure, because its AGI CPU could capture part of the data‑center AI stack now dominated by NVDA, especially in agentic AI and orchestration workloads. (see above)

• While not a direct GPU replacement, it reinforces the broader shift toward in‑house and specialized chips. That may gradually dilute NVDA’s pricing power & ecosystem dominance.

Rise of GOOG’s TPU ?

• Tech titan - GOOG (TPU v6) and AMZN (Trainium/Inferentia), have their own in‑house accelerators tailored for specific workloads to reduce dependency on 3rd‑party GPUs.

• META’s recent multibillion‑dollar deal to rent GOOG TPUs shows that hyperscalers are actively exploring diversification from NVDA’s GPUs.

This deal validates GOOG’s TPU as a credible alternative and could pressure NVDA’s pricing power and long‑term share of META’s AI compute budget, adding another layer of competitive headwind.

• Adding further downside leverage, OpenAI has begun testing and limited deployment of GOOG TPUs as part of its strategy to diversify away from exclusive reliance on NVDA GPUs.

What to make of it ?

Both contracts (with GOOG) show active diversification away from over dependence on NVDA expensive GPUs.

They validate GOOG’s custom silicon as a credible alternative, intensifies competition for high‑end training and inference workloads.

This should exert pressure on NVDA’s pricing power and long‑term share of AI‑compute budgets, adding a meaningful competitive headwind over time.

Supply normalization.

• As $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ doubles its packaging capacity (CoWoS) through late 2026, the scarcity that once drove frantic over-ordering is fading, shifting the market toward a more stable procurement cycle.

• Should demand moderate, this normalization may expose NVDA to potential overcapacity or distributor‑level inventory markdowns.

Geopolitical pressure on China’s H200 sales.

• The Trump administration successful expansion of US export controls restricting advanced GPU shipments to China have already displaced significant demand.

• NVDA’s H20 downgraded models for the Chinese market will not fully offset lost revenue, particularly as domestic chipmakers such as Huawei’s Ascend 910B gain traction.

• Despite subsequent U-turn made by the Trump administration (for a cut of the sales revenue) the 2025 approval for H200 sales to "approved customers," new legislative efforts like the AI Overwatch Act continue to cast a shadow over $5-$10 billion in potential revenue.

Possible valuation compression. if growth fails to meet expectations.

• Given NVDA’s elevated forward multiples relative to both semiconductor and software peers, any signs of earnings deceleration, project delays, or competitive erosion could trigger multiple contraction.

• Investor sensitivity to macroeconomic risk and a potential rotation away from high‑growth tech could exacerbate short‑term volatility.

• Lastly, any sign that AI workloads can be significantly compressed (via new techniques like TurboQuant) could lead to a rapid downward adjustment in sentiment.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

When Trump officially announced that the Middle East conflict will end in 2 to 3 weeks time, US market rejoiced.

• DJIA rose by +2.49% (+1,125.37 to 46,341.51).

• S&P 500 rose by +2.91% (+184.80 to 6,528.52).

• Nasdaq rose by +3.83% (+795.99 to 21,590.63).

However how much of what Trump said is true is yet to be determined when US troops are still arriving in the Middle East and words out there is that negotiation between the 2 countries have stalled.

NVDA ended Q1 2026 with a bang, rising +5.62% or +$9.28 to $174.44 /share.

Based on past 12 months performances, it is still up by +60.96%, not too shabby given the month long turbulence.

Its technical indicators overall still show “weakness”.

Its end of March 2026 stock price ($174.44) is still below all 3 Simple Moving Averages (SMA) of 20-day ($178.57), 50-day SMA ( $183.05) and 200-day ($179.34), technically indicating that bearish momentum is still at play.

With both MACD line (-4.03) and Signal line (-2.60) below the Zero line and the former below the latter, it reconfirms the bearish momentum is still in full swing.

With a widening Divergence of -1.43, this technical indicator is consistent with NVDA’s SMA.

Lastly, with 14-day RSI of 33.99 creeping just out of the oversold reading of “30”, it will take more upshoot in stock prices for NVDA to hover to the 50 mark neutral zone.

Will NVDA be able to hit the $300 mark by year end as prophesized by Wall Street analyst?

My take is that unless there is full withdrawal of US troops out of the Middle East and a full restoration of shipping activities at the Straits of Hormuz, all the yapping is nothing but empty talk.

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

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• Do you think NVDA will be able to hit the $300 level by year end’?

• Do you think it is necessary for NVDA to hit the $300 mark, I don’t as long as NVDA issues dividends - hee hee.

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