Find the Next SanDisk! SpaceX IPO Sprinting, Are Space Stocks the Chosen One?
SpaceX IPO officially enters the final countdown; listing expected in June with valuation reaching $1.75 to $2 trillion, poised to become the largest IPO in history. The biggest highlight of this offering is the retail allocation, which could reach as high as 30%—far exceeding industry norms.
Space stock earnings recently diverged: $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ soared, $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ plummeted
1. $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ — +11.3% "Fundamental reversal confirmed."
Revenue $200.3M (+63.4% YoY), exceeding Goldman Sachs' expectations by +11.8%; Order backlog $2.22B, single-quarter QoQ +20%, YoY +108%, a doubling; Space Systems revenue +57% YoY, the core engine contributing to the beat. Q2 guidance midpoint $232.5M, exceeding Street estimates by approximately +16%. Neutron maiden flight maintains the 4Q26 schedule. Goldman Sachs maintains Neutral, price target $73 → $76, but the current $117 is 54% higher than the target—whether the valuation is reasonable is the biggest disagreement this quarter.
2. $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ Post-earnings -10.2%
Q1 revenue $14.7M, vs. Street expectations of $39M, a gap of over 60%. Loss per share $0.66, Street expected $0.24, loss nearly tripled. Operating expenses $164.1M, engineering and administrative expenses climbed significantly.
Only bright spot: Full-year guidance maintained at $150–200M, cash reserves $3.5 billion, no short-term shortage of money. Obtained FCC authorization allowing 248 satellites to provide commercial services in the US. Technically, Block 1 satellites peaked at 98.9 Mbps download; Block 2 is expected to double. Market cap once reached 32 billion, while Q1 actual revenue was $14.73 million. Launch execution is the most critical variable this year—3 satellites in mid-June, followed by 20+. Blue Origin let a satellite enter the wrong orbit last month; execution risk is real.
3. $Firefly Aerospace Inc.(FLY)$ -3.6%
All three indicators exceeded expectations, but the market chose to "buy the rumor, sell the news." Revenue $80.9M (+44.8% YoY); Adjusted EBITDA loss ($64.7)M, narrowing by 13% compared to consensus, indicating efficiency is improving during the scale-up process rather than pure cash burning. FY26 guidance maintained at $420–450M, in line with consensus. The risk lies in the order backlog QoQ -4%; short-term delivery rhythm remains a bottleneck. Goldman Sachs price target $32 → $35, maintains Neutral.
Who is the next SNDK?
SNDK has risen 3960% over the past 12 months. RKLB's current wave started from $10; ASTS's market cap reached 32 billion but performance is still almost zero. Space is the furthest upstream infrastructure of the AI hardware chain.
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RKLB: Order backlog doubled, Space Systems is already making money, Neutron is the biggest catalyst in the coming years.
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FLY: Smaller, earlier stage, more focused on launches; whether there is room for explosion depends on execution.
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ASTS: Unique technical route (Direct-to-Cell), but commercialization realization must wait for launch density to increase.
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SpaceX Terafab: The move toward vertically integrating chips may lead to a re-evaluation of the entire space AI chain.
What’s your take on the investment logic of space stocks?
Do you think RKLB is the “SanDisk of space,” or is the valuation already overstretched?
Would you consider buying after a -10% post-market drop of $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$?
Is SpaceX Terafab another of Musk’s cash-burning projects?
Leave your comments to win at least 5 tiger coins!
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However, this facility directly protects Elon Musk's broader ecosystem against critical chip supply dependencies. By partnering with Intel to deploy 14A process technology, SpaceX secures absolute compute sovereignty for Starlink nodes, xAI data centers, and Tesla autonomous driving algorithms.
Crucially, management fully reaffirmed its full-year 2026 revenue guidance of $150 million to $200 million and proved substantial technical speed breakthroughs. For a high-beta constellation operator backed by major global carriers, this earnings-induced drop offers an attractive entry point for risk-tolerant capital.
However, the stock price trades at an excessive premium following a massive multi-month rally. While its Neutron rocket timeline provides an excellent structural catalyst, buying the equity at these peak multiples presents an unfavorable near-term risk-reward profile.
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS) after -10% is not automatically cheap. It remains pre-scale, with delays and weak earnings. Treat it as venture-style. Only buy small if you believe in long-term execution.
Terafab looks like a Musk-style moonshot. Strategically logical, but extremely capital intensive. Likely cash-burning near term, with uncertain timelines.
Only bright spot: Full-year guidance maintained at $150–200M, cash reserves $3.5 billion, no short-term shortage of money. Obtained FCC authorization allowing 248 satellites to provide commercial services in the US. Technically, Block 1 satellites peaked at 98.9 Mbps download; Block 2 is expected to double. Market cap once reached 32 billion, while Q1 actual revenue was $14.73 million. Launch execution is the most critical variable this year—3 satellites in mid-June, followed by 20+. Blue Origin let a satellite enter the wrong orbit last month; execution risk is real.
For $AST SpaceMobile, Inc.(ASTS)$ , the direct-to-cell opportunity is huge, but commercialization still takes time. A -10% drop alone is not enough for me to chase aggressively, though I would consider slowly accumulating if launch execution improves.
I also think the market may underestimate SpaceX Terafab. If SpaceX expands deeper into AI-space infrastructure, the entire sector could be re-rated. My preference remains Rocket Lab USA, Inc. for execution quality, while AST SpaceMobile, Inc. remains the higher-risk upside bet.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @TigerClub
2. While $Rocket Lab USA, Inc.(RKLB)$ is a leader in research this company has yet to become profitable. Similarly $AusNet Services(AST.AU)$ has yet to become profitable
3. Spacex $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ is a highlight profitable company with deep funding which can fun new ventures such as spacex Tera fab. This company is yet to be sufficiently profitable for third party capital