To The Moon

On Thu, 29 Apr 2026, $Deutsche Bank AG(DB)$ handed in a “smashing” Q1 2026 earnings report.

Before diving into the results, it would be interesting to learn about Deutsche, the biggest German private bank, not state-owned or central bank.

Background

• DB is a German multinational investment bank and financial services company headquartered in Frankfurt, Germany.

• It is dual listed on both Frankfurt Stock Exchange and the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in 2001.

• It was founded way back in 1870, in Berlin.

• It grew to its present market cap size through M&A, with its last purchase of Deutsche Postbank back in 2010.

• It used to be a bank of good reputation and standings, until it started cutting corners, embarking on risky business ventures resulting in many regulatory fines and private settlements that eroded its profits.

• Since 2018, under the stewardship of CEO Christian Sewing, the German bank has been on a recovery path.

Q1 2026 Earnings summary:

• Net revenues: was € 8.7 billion (USD 9.35 billion) vs Q1 2025’s € 8.52 billion, up +2% YoY. (see below)

• Earnings per share (EPS) diluted: was €1.06 vs Q1 2025’s €0.99, up +7.07% YoY. (see below)

• Post-tax Net profit came in at €2.17 billion vs Q1 2025’s €2.0 billion; that’s a +8.0% YoY gain.

• Post-tax return on tangible equity (RoTE) was 12.7% vs Q1 2025’s 11.9%, a gain of +0.8% YoY.

• Capital Position: The Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio stood at a resilient 13.8%, supporting the execution of the bank's active share repurchase programs.

Now we know why Wall Street rejoiced at the results.

FY 2026 Outlook

During DB’s post earnings conference and press release, the bank will accelerate on its “Scaling the Global Hausbank” strategy with clear goals stretching out to 2028:

• Revenue: Bank remains confident in achieving the € 33 billion revenue target for FY 2026, supported by key banking book net interest income growing to around €14 billion.

• The bank has raised its capital distribution target, increasing its shareholder payout ratio to 60% starting from 2026.

• Continue with its operational efficiency programs, delivering around €100 million in cost savings just within the first quarter to fund a €900 million investment plan focused on technology and automated regulatory processes.

My viewpoints : (mine only)

• I have said it in the past and will say it again. A bank is very important to a country’s economic infrastructure.

• That said, every country should and will have a few “big” banks as part of economy fortification.

• This means Deutsche Bank has a vital role to fill and play in Germany.

• It is heartening to learn that it has almost turned the corner and continue to grow.

Performance - Past 12 months.

Over the past 12 months, leading up to June 2026, DB (represented by the volatile blue line) managed to edge out $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (represented by the steadier red line).

• DB : +27.74% (closing at $35.27)

• S&P 500 Index: +25.68%

While the end results are remarkably close, separated by just over 2% points, the paths taken by the two assets could not have been more different.

The S&P 500 maintained a relatively stable, textbook upward trajectory, while DB treated investors to a massive rollercoaster ride.

DB’s past 12 months stock price movement, could be divided into 3 time periods:

• June 2025 – January 2026.

• February – April 2026.

• Late April – June 2026

Initial Surge (June 2025 – January 2026)

DB stock steadily climbed, significantly outperforming the S&P 500.

This can be attributed to the high global interest rates that boosted banks’ margins, with markets initially brushing off the Trump administration's aggressive trade policies that pushed average US tariffs to an 80-year high of 9.6%.

The broader market was comfortable bidding up large banking institutions under the assumption that high net interest margins would securely fund corporate turnarounds.

Great Correction (February – April 2026)

DB plummeted vertically, wiping out nearly all its 2026 gains on massive trading volume.

This was due to the double geopolitical shock that hit the market.

Firstly, in February 2026, US Supreme Court ruled that Trump administration had acted unlawfully in imposing a large portion of its tariffs.

The administration immediately retaliated by announcing a brand-new 15% global tariff on all imports and a 10% emergency surcharge.

This sudden policy turbulence deeply shocked international trade infrastructure and corporate confidence.

Secondly, US & Israeli attacked Iran suddenly, assassinated its top leadership and sparked an immediate military conflict, leading to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, that stranded 20% of global oil supplies and triggering the largest energy supply disruption in history.

Oil spiked past $120, raising fears of severe EU stagflation. As a major European bank, DB bore the brunt of this panic, with DB’s dramatic downtrend more acute than the domestic-heavy S&P 500, that was partially buffered by US oil production.

V-Shaped June Recovery (Late April – June 2026)

DB staged a fierce near-vertical V-shaped recovery, climbing back to a +27.74% return and re-conquering the S&P 500 baseline by 18 Jun 2026 (so far).

This is attributed aggressive rebound attributed to the "thaw" in both trade and geopolitical standoffs, allowing underlying corporate fundamentals to take back control: (see below)

(1) US & China De-escalation.

The May 2026 high-stakes meeting between Trump and Xi resulted in a step toward stabilizing bilateral trade.

The establishment of a US-China Board of Trade to negotiate billions in reciprocal tariff reductions offered businesses a much-needed reprieve from a year of constant escalation.

(2) Middle East - interim truce.

The extreme geopolitical risk premium began to unwind after US and Iran signed an interim deal to end active hostilities when Trump attended the recently concluded G7 meeting.

Despite sporadic friction between Israel & Lebanon, the breakthrough gave energy markets confidence that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would normalize, pulling Brent crude safely back down into the $80 range.

Unfortunately the path to ‘everlasting’ peace talk has just been stalled by the constant disruption in Lebanon, that is part of the peace deal - once again putting the Hormuz Straits and peace talk negotiation in limbo once again.

The Bottom Line.

DB’s high trading volume bars at above chart shows that big institutional money capitulated during the Spring panic but aggressively bought the dip right before DB's strong Q1 earnings report in late April 2026.

Note : For retail investors to consider - while global banks carry higher geopolitical risk, monitoring them closely and buying the dip during major macro panics can yield massive short-term rewards.

Is DB a “Buy” now ?

To answer this question, I defer to DB’s technical indicators of (a) Simple moving averages, (b) MACD and (c) RSI, to provide a reference / guide of sort. (see below)

(1) Simple Moving Averages (SMAs).

• On Thu, 18 Jun 2026, DB closed the week at $17.91 per share.

• This is higher than its SMA of 20-day ($16.85) & 50-day ($16.94) but lower than its 200-day SMA ($22.70).

• The stock ($17.91) has successfully reclaimed both its short-term (20-day) and medium-term (50-day) moving averages, that are currently flattening out.

• However, a major "Death Cross" occurred in February 2026 when the 50-day SMA crossed sharply below the 200-day SMA remains.

• Short-term trend is pointing toward a baseline recovery or consolidation. The longer term trajectory remains capped by heavy overhead resistance at the 200-day SMA ($22.70).

(2) MACD.

• Both MACD line (0.21) and Signal line (0.07) is tracking above the Zero line in positive territory.

• This indicates that the bearish momentum earlier on has dissipated, with buyers in control of the current price action.

• With the MACD line trending strongly above the Signal line, it creates a bullish crossover confirmed by the positive green Divergence bars (0.14).

• Ovall, positive divergence suggests the path of least resistance in the immediate short term is upward.

(3) RSI.

• DB’s 14-day RSI stood at 58.00 in neutral-to-bullish territory.

• It has recovered from the deeply oversold conditions seen during the February–March capitulation, but it still sits safely below the overbought threshold (70). (see above)

My viewpoints: (mine only)

While my investment returns from DB is fantastic, I say too that it started early on in August 2022 too. It is definitely not an overnight sensation.

Under the leadership of Christian Sewing since 2018, DB has successfully returned to profitability.

This upward trajectory is expected to continue until at least 2029, when his contract is scheduled for review, giving the bank at least another 2½ years of stable growth.

Lest we forget, it used to be $125.87 per share back in 11 May 2007. It is alright to hope, right !

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• Do you think DB makes for good investment from now until end 2028 or early 2029 ?

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