To The Moon

The market has been choppy over the past two days, and short-term moves can easily disrupt one’s rhythm. I would rather lay out the key levels clearly and then assess the market’s reaction once prices reach them: for gold, the first question is whether a rebound will encounter resistance; for crude oil, the focus is on whether the low-level recovery can continue.

U.S. Dollar Index: Firm Bias, but Guard Against a Pullback After a Spike

The U.S. Dollar Index formed a large bullish candle with a relatively substantial real body yesterday, indicating that short-term bullish momentum remains in place. Today, watch how the index trades within the 100.6–101.6 range. The overall bias remains constructive, but a pullback after a move higher should also be kept in mind.

$USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$

Gold: 4,311 Is the Short-Term Bull-Bear Divide

Gold came under pressure after moving higher yesterday. A second attempt to test the highs failed to produce a new high, and prices then oscillated lower during the evening session, reaching 4,275 before stabilizing modestly.

The daily candle closed lower. Some short-term bearish momentum has been released, so for today I will initially assess the market on the assumption that rebounds may face resistance and that there may still be room for further downside. However, the market has recently been switching rapidly between bullish and bearish conditions, so a rebound from the lows should not be ruled out. Another possibility is that a second test of the previous low holds, followed by another upward move.

On the hourly chart, 4,311 is the intraday bull-bear divide. If a rebound is blocked around this level, watch for bearish signals. If the weakness persists, prices may remain below the overnight rebound high of 4,298. Strong daily-chart resistance is located near 4,347, which may not be easy to reach given the current intraday trading rhythm.

On the downside, watch yesterday’s low at 4,275 first. If that level is decisively broken, the next level to watch is around 4,257. Stronger support lies at the previous low of 4,235 and the psychological 4,200 level. My main intraday focus is on two possible paths: if prices rebound first, watch whether resistance emerges around 4,311; if prices decline first, wait for signs of stabilization and a halt to the decline below 4,260, then look for a potential rebound.

$黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$

Crude Oil: Look for a Recovery After a Double Bottom at the Lows

Crude oil made a second test of the lows yesterday and confirmed support, forming a double-bottom rebound. The daily candle closed higher, suggesting that support at lower levels has temporarily emerged. Today, first watch for a range-bound recovery within 90.7–92.7. Strong resistance is at 94, while the key support level remains 88.7.

Crude oil has also been experiencing repeated shakeouts recently. I will try to wait until prices approach the upper or lower end of the range and confirm the market’s reaction before making a judgment, rather than rushing to follow a temporary intraday shift in strength or weakness.$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ $小原油主连 2611(QMmain)$ $布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2611(MCLmain)$