To The Moon

When Jan 2023 CPI (all item) was released on 14 Feb (Tue); market reaction was mild to say the least.

2 of 3 indexes fell marginally; with Nasdaq notching a slight gain instead.

The next trading day (15 Feb); all 3 indexes gained grounds.

It wasn’t until 16 Feb (Thu); when the Producer Price Index (PPI) was announced that market reacted adversely (refer to above table for details).

Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Jan 2023

PCE - Jan 2023

• Still puzzled why Market expected PCE - Jan 2023 to be substantially lower (as per market expectations) than PCE - Dec 2022; when the CPI data have shown that its not to be the case ?

• Also, cannot understand why institutions are hoping that the Fed will not proceed with a next interest hike or keep interest policy high, dragging it out at least until year end ?

• Afterall hasn’t the Fed been singing consistently, the same tune of staying the course until inflation is back at 2%. ?

• Have we also forgotten that US had a very bad Dec Winter; so much so that it could’ve delayed the “peaked” season spending from Dec to Jan instead ?

In fact, it was a surprise to find the market reacted so adversely on Fri when the Jan 2023 PCE data was out.

By The Time Market Closed For The Week :

US market performance on 24 Feb 2023

• DJIA : -1.02% (-336.99 to 32,816.92).

• S&P 500 : -1.05% (-42.28 to 3,970.04).

• Nasdaq : -1.69% (-195.46 to 11,394.94). Its edging closer to the lower 11,000 key level again.

Looking At The Indexes’ Moving Averages :

• Both DJIA and S&P 500 Index have fallen below its 20-day ma and 50-day ma.

• Nasdaq index is sitting on its 200-day ma. If index continues to fall today, it will definitely fall below its 200-day ma; indicating index has turned bearish.

Is It Time To Look At Hybrid EV LI Auto Before They Announced Q4 2022 Earnings ?

• Also known as Li Xiang, is a Chinese electric vehicle manufacturer

• Founded in 2015 (8 years young company)

• Founder was Li Xiang.

• Li Auto EVs are electric vehicles that use range extenders for a power supply.

• A range extender is a fuel-based auxiliary power unit (APU) that extends the range of a battery electric vehicle by driving an electric generator that charges the vehicle's battery.

• It is precisely this “arrangement” that makes Li Auto EVs unique and also there is little to no complains about charging-incidences

• It was listed on Nasdaq on 30 Jul 2020

• It was secondary listed on Hang Seng Index (HK Exchange) on 12 Aug 2021.

• Of the 3 Chinese EVs ( $Li Auto(LI)$ , $XPeng Inc.(XPEV)$ & $NIO Inc.(NIO)$ ) many analysts believed Li Auto will the first of the lot to break even and profit thereafter. Wow right !

Li Auto 2022 EV Delivery And Revenue

Li Auto - 2020 to 2022 Delivery

• It manages to maintain a Weekly Top #5 rank in terms of EV order deliveries & insurance registration

• Looking at its track record; it has been able to scale its output YoY

• As Li Auto EVs are priced mid-range, the path to break even may come sooner than later

• Above is the revenue breakdown for Li Auto for year 2020 to 2022 by quarters

• Especially for its Q4 2022, its revenue managed to increase by +66.2%

Now its waiting for Li Auto to consolidate all the relevant figures into the required financial statements and present to shareholders.

How Will US Market Behave On The Trading Week Crossing Into March 2022 ?

• Looking at US Pre-market indicators (above diagram) - All Green ! including US Treasury

• Bitcoin & Ethereum prices for last hour & 24 hours (above diagram) - Green & Green !

• Asia markets (ASX - Red !, Nikkei - Red !, KOPSI - Red !, HSI - Red !)

• EU markets (DAX - Green !, FTSE - Green !, CAC - Green !).

• Do you think Chinese EV maker Li Auto will be able to register a profit when its Q4 2022 earnings are released ?

• Do you think the US Market will float or sink further today ?

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