Dollar Index Breaks June High: Is a Euro Rebound a Shorting Opportunity?💰
Although last week brought important data, including the nonfarm payrolls report, and some market moves, the more significant development was a change in the foreign exchange market. We had previously believed that the dollar faced the risk of a substantial decline, against the backdrop of what we saw as the weakening U.S. military strength and overall national power demonstrated by its strikes on Iran. But with recent moves in the U.S. bond market proving increasingly difficult to control, there is now reason to suspect that maintaining the dollar’s relative strength would better serve the United States’ broader interests. From a technical perspective, the dollar may also be entering a new phase. The U.S. Dollar Index is an important reference point for assessing the dollar and the broade
Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?
Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon
Stocks and Treasuries Diverge: How to Position Ahead of a Market Turn?📈📉
The encouraging directional signal from cryptocurrencies during FOMC week did not last long. Although the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high, most risk assets did not confirm the move. Worse still, long-term bond yields also hit new highs, clearly conflicting with the fundamental reasoning behind our earlier expectations. Judging by the credibility of these breakouts, the bond market may prove the more reliable signal if there is no outside intervention. That means we need to be more cautious about the possibility that the turning point could arrive sooner than expected. $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$$BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Tr(BIT)$
Big Options Bets: Gold’s Defense Moves Up, Bitcoin’s 85K Put Signals Potential Regime Shift📈
A large 85,000 Bitcoin put order hit the market, while Gold’s defensive floor moved higher. Is the market about to turn? The option changes on September 22 show that open interest in Gold calls continued to expand. In Silver, traders maintained upside exposure at higher strikes while accelerating purchases of downside protection. In Bitcoin, however, new positions on both sides remained too small to be meaningful. This suggests that expectations for further upside in precious metals have not disappeared, but protection against pullbacks and volatility is becoming more expensive. Gold: Calls Still Dominate as Defensive Positioning Moves Higher Gold call open interest increased by a net 8,354 contracts, exceeding the 6,116-contract increase on the put side. Total call open interest stood at
Did Marco Polo have an Asian fetish? Will #Ethereum reach 40K? Probably yes to both, but the road is difficult and people make fun of you when you talk about your journey.
Fidelity Ethereum Fund is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the United States. The Fund aims to track the performance of spot ether as measured by the performance of the Fidelity Ethereum Reference Rate. In seeking to achieve its investment objective, the Trust holds ether.