To The Moon

A large 85,000 Bitcoin put order hit the market, while Gold’s defensive floor moved higher. Is the market about to turn?

The option changes on September 22 show that open interest in Gold calls continued to expand. In Silver, traders maintained upside exposure at higher strikes while accelerating purchases of downside protection. In Bitcoin, however, new positions on both sides remained too small to be meaningful. This suggests that expectations for further upside in precious metals have not disappeared, but protection against pullbacks and volatility is becoming more expensive.

Gold: Calls Still Dominate as Defensive Positioning Moves Higher

Gold call open interest increased by a net 8,354 contracts, exceeding the 6,116-contract increase on the put side. Total call open interest stood at 663,000 contracts, approximately 2.4 times the 279,900 contracts on the put side. Daily call volume was also higher, at 29,495 contracts versus 20,423 put contracts. Whether measured by new additions or outstanding positions, the dominant structure in Gold remains concentrated on the call side.

The most meaningful development this period is not simply the continued buildup of call positions, but the shift in the location of downside protection. Put buyers have not left the market; rather, they are adjusting the price range at which they are defending their positions. This indicates that the market still expects prices to rise, but is becoming less willing to chase a one-way rally.

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Block Trade Focus: Stronger Activity in the 4,350 Call, Higher Defense Line at the 3,700 Put

The October 4,350 call added 353 contracts, the largest single increase in call open interest among the visible entries. It traded 987 contracts, making it the most active key strike on the call side. At the same time, the November 6,000 call increased by 293 contracts and the December 5,000 call by 245 contracts. This indicates that upside positioning is not confined to the front end of the curve, but extends into longer-dated maturities.

The changes on the put side deserve even closer attention. The November 3,700 put added 937 contracts, the largest single-point increase across the entire market, while the same-expiry 3,500 put declined by 564 contracts. This combination looks more like a shift in the defensive center of gravity from 3,500 to 3,700 than a simple withdrawal of downside protection. If open interest at 3,700 continues to build while additions to the 4,350 call stop, the market may shift from “bullish” to “bullish at elevated levels, but with thicker defenses.”

The conclusion is that Gold still has a clearly bullish structure. The 4,350 call is the key level for monitoring upside expectations, while 3,700 is the critical defensive line for determining whether risk appetite is beginning to weaken.

Silver: Long Exposure Remains Substantial, but Traders Are Starting to Pay for Volatility

Silver call open interest totaled 91,800 contracts, approximately three times the 29,700 contracts on the put side, so the outstanding-position structure remains bullish. Call open interest increased by a net 1,781 contracts during the period, slightly more than the 1,437-contract increase in puts. On the surface, the bulls still appear to be in control.

However, measured against each side’s existing open interest, put positions expanded by 4.84% during the period, while call positions increased by only 1.94%. The relative growth rate of puts was therefore 2.5 times that of calls. This does not mean that the market has turned bearish, but it does indicate that bulls are allocating part of their incremental budget to defense rather than committing it entirely to a continued rally.$白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2612(SILmain)$ $100盎司白银主连 2612(SICmain)$

Block Trade Focus: The 95 Call Is the Upside Anchor; 62–63 Puts Add Defensive Exposure

The December 95 call added 665 contracts, making it the most prominent increase in open interest across the entire Silver market, and traded 709 contracts. The December 90 call also increased by 190 contracts and traded 738 contracts. Continued positioning at higher strikes shows that the market is preserving its upside potential, with 95 serving as the clearest current anchor for bullish expectations.

The put side is not quiet either. The October 63 and 62 puts increased by 201 and 194 contracts, respectively, forming the most concentrated area of defensive additions during the period. Maintaining call exposure at 95 while adding puts at 62–63 does not reflect a simple one-way directional bet; rather, it reflects advance pricing of a wider trading range.

Silver’s current structure is “bullish, but more vulnerable to sharp volatility.” If the 95 call continues to expand while additions to the 62–63 puts no longer keep pace, the bullish signal will become more pronounced. Conversely, if protective positions continue to thicken, Silver is more likely to enter a phase in which the direction remains unchanged but volatility rises first.

Bitcoin: Small Test Positions on Both Sides, but No Trend Trade Yet

Bitcoin call open interest increased by only 21 contracts on a net basis, while puts increased by 41 contracts. Total daily volume was just 35 calls and 46 puts. The largest change on the call side was a 10-contract increase at 90,000, while the largest change on the put side was a 15-contract increase at 84,000. New positions appeared on both sides, but combined net additions across the market totaled only 62 contracts—clearly insufficient in scale compared with Gold and Silver.

Block Trade Focus: The 84,000 Put Has a Slight Edge, but Does Not Confirm a Bearish View

The 84,000 put recorded the largest single increase during the period, indicating that short-term demand for protection was slightly stronger than the upside bet. At the same time, the increase in the 90,000 call shows that traders have not formed a unanimous downside view. The positioning looks more like an attempt to buy optionality in both directions with small positions while waiting for a price breakout.

The conclusion for Bitcoin is neutral to cautiously defensive. The move in the 84,000 put can serve as a gauge of risk appetite, but it would become a sufficiently bearish signal only if both put open-interest additions and trading volume continued to expand and clearly exceeded those on the call side.

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Overall Assessment

Gold remains bullish, with the key focus on whether additions to the 4,350 call continue and whether the 3,700 put keeps building. Silver remains bullish but faces greater volatility risk, with 95 and 62–63 representing the two ends of the offensive and defensive positioning. Bitcoin has not yet taken a clear side, and it is premature to infer a trend from positions that remain small in size.