To The Moon

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Microsoft: Can AI-driven cloud growth meet elevated expectations? Base case: Likely to meet, harder to beat decisively Azure growth is still being driven by AI workloads, enterprise migration, and Copilot attach rates. Demand visibility remains strong, and backlog conversion should support headline growth. The challenge is expectations. Investors are now less impressed by “strong” growth and more focused on whether AI revenue is incremental or merely accelerating existing spend. Margin optics matter. Rising AI infrastructure costs mean revenue beats without margin leverage may be received neutrally rather than positively. Market reaction risk A beat with in-line guidance likely sustains current valuation. A clear upside surprise in Azure growth or AI monetisation commentary could trigger a

[Miser]Hi Tigers,US equities are consolidating near cycle highs, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ holding above key moving averages as upside momentum eases. Volatility has picked up slightly, and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ settling in the mid-teens suggests two-way risk is back on the table.As liquidity tailwinds fade, investors are refocusing on rate-cut timing, AI capex visibility, and earnings guidance. With Super Earnings Week underway, stock-specific fundamentals are starting to matter more, setting the stage for wider dispersion beneath the index surface.In this backdrop, positioning is tilting toward AI, big tech, and core US assets. These sectors offer clearer earnings visibility, stronger balan

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$   🔥📊 Mega-Cap Tech Reset: Valuations Re-Anchored, Earnings Sensitivity Normalising, $NVDA Coiled, $MSFT Expands the AI Silicon Front 📊🔥 📉 Institutional Macro Read: Reset, Not Rupture I am watching mega-cap tech reprice from premium to proof, and the tape is confirming a regime transition, not a breakdown, across $AAPL, $AMZN, $AVGO, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, and $NVDA. Goldman Sachs highlights mega-cap tech at ~27x forward P/E, in the 59th percentile over the past decade. The 31% valuation premium versus the broad

Last Week's Recap 1. The US Market - Show Slight Pullback on Geopolitical Tensions: Slight pullback: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (-0.35%, 6,915.61), the $Dow Chemical(DOW)$ (-0.53%, 49,098.71), and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ (-0.06%, 23,501.24)posted fractional declines for the second week in a row. Geopolitical tensions: International tensions over Greenland and the related prospect of tariffs were the key catalysts for Tuesday’s tumble around 2%. Metals dazzle: Precious metals prices are extending rallies again. Gold is trading above $5000 per ounce, while silver surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time. U.S. GDP upgrade: The government’s updated figure put the quarter

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While browsing through the list of ‘suggested’ posts, a title caught my eye (see below), and I thought I might learn something new while reading. After reading, I feel that it’s worth the while to share what I have read, with a twist though. Here goes something or nothing, depends on how one interprets the post. Intro. On 14 Jan 2026, Macro Risk Advisors’ John Kolovos appeared on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to talk about the base case for equity markets. His base case for the S&P 500 in 2026, is around the 7600 or so level. According to him, this year is more about getting the rotations and the risk management right. He also expressed worry associated with (a) mid-term elections, and (b) volatility they tend to bring with them. At the same time, he half expected some kind of downside chop we

Will strong earnings be enough to reverse recent underperformance — or is the bar set even higher this time?

My friend asked me for my personal take.  3 Key Takeaways (My View) 1) Earnings matter, but guidance matters more • For the Magnificent 7, beats alone aren’t enough anymore. These stocks are priced for excellence. • What really moves the needle: forward guidance on AI monetization, cloud demand, and margins. • Microsoft and Apple can “beat” and still sell off if the outlook sounds cautious. 2) AI enthusiasm is real, but expectations are sky-high • Microsoft is still the cleanest AI monetization story (Azure + OpenAI + enterprise lock-in). • Meta is under extra pressure — after a post-earnings drop, the market wants proof, not promises: • Ad growth durability • AI-driven efficiency • Capex discipline • Translation: Meta probably needs upside surprises, not just “in-line” numbers, to re

My Investing Muse (26Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Amazon is planning a second round of job cuts next week as part of its broader goal of trimming some 30,000 corporate workers, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters Citi cutting 1,000 now. More layoffs coming in March. Announced after bonuses, of course. - X user Amanda Goodall 55% of companies expect layoffs in 2026, including 48% who say layoffs will definitely or probably occur in Q1. - X user Amanda Goodall 45% of employers post fake listings, per Forbes. - X user Unusual Whales 6 in 10 companies will conduct layoffs in 2026. By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last y

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Jan2026) Civil unrest. Jamie Dimon says that’s what happens when AI layoffs move faster than society can adapt. AI isn’t the danger. Speed is. If technological displacement arrives in sudden, concentrated waves, Dimon warned that the consequences could be destabilising. “You’ll have civil unrest.” - X user Amanda Goodall Trump admitted the reason he doesn’t want home prices to fall so people can afford them, is that current homeowners and mortgage lenders would lose money. But if homes are so overpriced that people can't afford to buy them, they’re not worth what people think. A crash is coming. - Peter Schiff One of the most overvalued stock markets by any metric - X user Lukas Ekwueme The Federal Reserve is injecting $55.3B into the financial sy

Earnings Calendar (26Jan2026) I am monitoring the earnings results from Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, UPS, GM, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Let us explore the recent performance of ExxonMobil. Stock Performance and Analyst Recommendations Technical analysis for ExxonMobil indicates a “Strong Buy” recommendation, suggesting favourable market signals and trends. In addition to technical factors, analyst sentiment supports a positive outlook for the stock, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The current price target stands at $132.48. However, this target implies a potential downside of approximately 1.84%, reflecting a drop from the current trading price. ExxonMobil Earnings Highlights Revenue Growth ExxonMobil has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past decade. The company’s revenue incr

Can strong earnings from Apple and Microsoft reverse their underperformance? Strong results from Apple and Microsoft could mark a turning point if they deliver clear beats on both earnings per share and revenues relative to forecasts. The consensus estimates for Apple (about USD 2.65 EPS on USD 137.5 B revenue) and Microsoft (about USD 3.88–USD 3.93 EPS on ~USD 80.2 B) reflect modest year-over-year growth and positive revision trends, which suggests analysts expect resilience in core businesses, including iPhone demand and cloud growth. If both companies beat expectations and give confident forward guidance, this may restore some investor confidence and contribute to relative performance improvement versus the broader market.  Does Meta need upside surprises to regain investor confide

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🌟🌟🌟Some earnings  weeks test fundamentals.  Next week will test nerves.  The Magnificent 7 - once the market's unstoppable engines - now step into a week loaded with pressure, doubt and macro landmines.  Microsoft and Meta Platforms have lagged.  Apple faces skepticism.  Tesla battles slowing deliveries. If that is not enough, next week the market must also digest FOMC meeting and PCE Inflation report.  These are 2 macro catalysts capable of injecting volatility into the market.  This isn't just earnings season.  It is a psychological stress test.  Apple: The Quiet Giant with a Narrative to Rewrite Apple $Apple(AAPL)$  is expected to post USD 2.65 EPS on USD

The stage is set for a blockbuster earnings showdown as the Magnificent 7 face off against sky-high investor hopes! 😎 With Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla dropping their numbers after hours on January 28, and Apple following suit on January 29, all eyes are on whether these giants can spark a comeback. Over the past year, the Mag 7 crew has trailed the broader market's sizzling gains, leaving shareholders hungry for upside surprises. Microsoft and Meta have felt the heat the most, while Tesla and Apple hover closer but still lag behind. Can killer reports flip the script? Let's dive deep into the drama! 🔍 First up, the forecasts that could make or break portfolios. Analysts are buzzing with predictions, and here's the scoop in a handy table for quick intel: These numbers aren't just s

I don’t own any of the Magnificent 7 stocks. Not a single share. And yet, every earnings season, I can’t help but watch them closely. Next week is no exception. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to report after the close on January 28, followed by Apple on the 29th. Headlines are already buzzing. Analysts are predicting Apple to post $2.65 EPS on $137.5 billion in revenue, Microsoft $3.88 EPS on $80.2 billion, and Meta faces extra scrutiny after its last post-earnings selloff. Apple (AAPL) Tesla Motors (TSLA) Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Microsoft (MSFT) Over the past few years, I’ve noticed a pattern with tech-related stocks: even when they dip, the pullbacks usually feel temporary. Hype seems to have a way of creeping back in, driving prices higher. It’s almost hypnotic—the mar

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

What do expected fir Magnificent 7 earnings 

day trader daily

[Miser]Hi Tigers,US equities are consolidating near cycle highs, with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ holding above key moving averages as upside momentum eases. Volatility has picked up slightly, and the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ settling in the mid-teens suggests two-way risk is back on the table.As liquidity tailwinds fade, investors are refocusing on rate-cut timing, AI capex visibility, and earnings guidance. With Super Earnings Week underway, stock-specific fundamentals are starting to matter more, setting the stage for wider dispersion beneath the index surface.In this backdrop, positioning is tilting toward AI, big tech, and core US assets. These sectors offer clearer earnings visibility, stronger balan

Microsoft: Can AI-driven cloud growth meet elevated expectations? Base case: Likely to meet, harder to beat decisively Azure growth is still being driven by AI workloads, enterprise migration, and Copilot attach rates. Demand visibility remains strong, and backlog conversion should support headline growth. The challenge is expectations. Investors are now less impressed by “strong” growth and more focused on whether AI revenue is incremental or merely accelerating existing spend. Margin optics matter. Rising AI infrastructure costs mean revenue beats without margin leverage may be received neutrally rather than positively. Market reaction risk A beat with in-line guidance likely sustains current valuation. A clear upside surprise in Azure growth or AI monetisation commentary could trigger a

While browsing through the list of ‘suggested’ posts, a title caught my eye (see below), and I thought I might learn something new while reading. After reading, I feel that it’s worth the while to share what I have read, with a twist though. Here goes something or nothing, depends on how one interprets the post. Intro. On 14 Jan 2026, Macro Risk Advisors’ John Kolovos appeared on CNBC’s ‘Closing Bell’ to talk about the base case for equity markets. His base case for the S&P 500 in 2026, is around the 7600 or so level. According to him, this year is more about getting the rotations and the risk management right. He also expressed worry associated with (a) mid-term elections, and (b) volatility they tend to bring with them. At the same time, he half expected some kind of downside chop we

🩷Good

$NVIDIA(NVDA)$  $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$   🔥📊 Mega-Cap Tech Reset: Valuations Re-Anchored, Earnings Sensitivity Normalising, $NVDA Coiled, $MSFT Expands the AI Silicon Front 📊🔥 📉 Institutional Macro Read: Reset, Not Rupture I am watching mega-cap tech reprice from premium to proof, and the tape is confirming a regime transition, not a breakdown, across $AAPL, $AMZN, $AVGO, $GOOGL, $META, $MSFT, and $NVDA. Goldman Sachs highlights mega-cap tech at ~27x forward P/E, in the 59th percentile over the past decade. The 31% valuation premium versus the broad

Last Week's Recap 1. The US Market - Show Slight Pullback on Geopolitical Tensions: Slight pullback: the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ (-0.35%, 6,915.61), the $Dow Chemical(DOW)$ (-0.53%, 49,098.71), and the $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ (-0.06%, 23,501.24)posted fractional declines for the second week in a row. Geopolitical tensions: International tensions over Greenland and the related prospect of tariffs were the key catalysts for Tuesday’s tumble around 2%. Metals dazzle: Precious metals prices are extending rallies again. Gold is trading above $5000 per ounce, while silver surpassed $100 per ounce for the first time. U.S. GDP upgrade: The government’s updated figure put the quarter

🌟🌟🌟Some earnings  weeks test fundamentals.  Next week will test nerves.  The Magnificent 7 - once the market's unstoppable engines - now step into a week loaded with pressure, doubt and macro landmines.  Microsoft and Meta Platforms have lagged.  Apple faces skepticism.  Tesla battles slowing deliveries. If that is not enough, next week the market must also digest FOMC meeting and PCE Inflation report.  These are 2 macro catalysts capable of injecting volatility into the market.  This isn't just earnings season.  It is a psychological stress test.  Apple: The Quiet Giant with a Narrative to Rewrite Apple $Apple(AAPL)$  is expected to post USD 2.65 EPS on USD

The stage is set for a blockbuster earnings showdown as the Magnificent 7 face off against sky-high investor hopes! 😎 With Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla dropping their numbers after hours on January 28, and Apple following suit on January 29, all eyes are on whether these giants can spark a comeback. Over the past year, the Mag 7 crew has trailed the broader market's sizzling gains, leaving shareholders hungry for upside surprises. Microsoft and Meta have felt the heat the most, while Tesla and Apple hover closer but still lag behind. Can killer reports flip the script? Let's dive deep into the drama! 🔍 First up, the forecasts that could make or break portfolios. Analysts are buzzing with predictions, and here's the scoop in a handy table for quick intel: These numbers aren't just s

The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended to be and do not constit

My friend asked me for my personal take.  3 Key Takeaways (My View) 1) Earnings matter, but guidance matters more • For the Magnificent 7, beats alone aren’t enough anymore. These stocks are priced for excellence. • What really moves the needle: forward guidance on AI monetization, cloud demand, and margins. • Microsoft and Apple can “beat” and still sell off if the outlook sounds cautious. 2) AI enthusiasm is real, but expectations are sky-high • Microsoft is still the cleanest AI monetization story (Azure + OpenAI + enterprise lock-in). • Meta is under extra pressure — after a post-earnings drop, the market wants proof, not promises: • Ad growth durability • AI-driven efficiency • Capex discipline • Translation: Meta probably needs upside surprises, not just “in-line” numbers, to re

My Investing Muse (26Jan2026) Layoffs, Bankruptcy & Closure news Amazon is planning a second round of job cuts next week as part of its broader goal of trimming some 30,000 corporate workers, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters Citi cutting 1,000 now. More layoffs coming in March. Announced after bonuses, of course. - X user Amanda Goodall 55% of companies expect layoffs in 2026, including 48% who say layoffs will definitely or probably occur in Q1. - X user Amanda Goodall 45% of employers post fake listings, per Forbes. - X user Unusual Whales 6 in 10 companies will conduct layoffs in 2026. By analyzing $4 trillion of shipments between January 2024 and November 2025, the Kiel Institute researchers found that foreign exporters absorbed only about 4% of the burden of last y

Earnings Calendar (26Jan2026) I am monitoring the earnings results from Microsoft, Apple, Meta, Tesla, UPS, GM, Chevron and ExxonMobil. Let us explore the recent performance of ExxonMobil. Stock Performance and Analyst Recommendations Technical analysis for ExxonMobil indicates a “Strong Buy” recommendation, suggesting favourable market signals and trends. In addition to technical factors, analyst sentiment supports a positive outlook for the stock, with a consensus rating of “Buy.” The current price target stands at $132.48. However, this target implies a potential downside of approximately 1.84%, reflecting a drop from the current trading price. ExxonMobil Earnings Highlights Revenue Growth ExxonMobil has demonstrated strong revenue growth over the past decade. The company’s revenue incr

Can strong earnings from Apple and Microsoft reverse their underperformance? Strong results from Apple and Microsoft could mark a turning point if they deliver clear beats on both earnings per share and revenues relative to forecasts. The consensus estimates for Apple (about USD 2.65 EPS on USD 137.5 B revenue) and Microsoft (about USD 3.88–USD 3.93 EPS on ~USD 80.2 B) reflect modest year-over-year growth and positive revision trends, which suggests analysts expect resilience in core businesses, including iPhone demand and cloud growth. If both companies beat expectations and give confident forward guidance, this may restore some investor confidence and contribute to relative performance improvement versus the broader market.  Does Meta need upside surprises to regain investor confide

News and my thoughts from the past week (26Jan2026) Civil unrest. Jamie Dimon says that’s what happens when AI layoffs move faster than society can adapt. AI isn’t the danger. Speed is. If technological displacement arrives in sudden, concentrated waves, Dimon warned that the consequences could be destabilising. “You’ll have civil unrest.” - X user Amanda Goodall Trump admitted the reason he doesn’t want home prices to fall so people can afford them, is that current homeowners and mortgage lenders would lose money. But if homes are so overpriced that people can't afford to buy them, they’re not worth what people think. A crash is coming. - Peter Schiff One of the most overvalued stock markets by any metric - X user Lukas Ekwueme The Federal Reserve is injecting $55.3B into the financial sy

I don’t own any of the Magnificent 7 stocks. Not a single share. And yet, every earnings season, I can’t help but watch them closely. Next week is no exception. Microsoft, Meta Platforms, and Tesla are set to report after the close on January 28, followed by Apple on the 29th. Headlines are already buzzing. Analysts are predicting Apple to post $2.65 EPS on $137.5 billion in revenue, Microsoft $3.88 EPS on $80.2 billion, and Meta faces extra scrutiny after its last post-earnings selloff. Apple (AAPL) Tesla Motors (TSLA) Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) Microsoft (MSFT) Over the past few years, I’ve noticed a pattern with tech-related stocks: even when they dip, the pullbacks usually feel temporary. Hype seems to have a way of creeping back in, driving prices higher. It’s almost hypnotic—the mar

Here are the key considerations for the upcoming critical earnings week for the “Mag 7” (Microsoft, Meta, Tesla, Apple) and how the results might impact their recent underperformance: 1. Can strong earnings from Apple and Microsoft reverse recent underperformance? Strong results from Apple and Microsoft could indeed help to stabilise sentiment and potentially reverse some of the recent underperformance. Analysts expect Apple to deliver solid earnings driven by robust iPhone demand, which could buoy confidence if it beats expectations and offers positive guidance given concerns about margins. For Microsoft, a beat supported by continued cloud and AI growth would demonstrate resilience despite broader valuation pressure among software stocks; both outcomes may ease investor risk aversion and

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Will strong earnings be enough to reverse recent underperformance — or is the bar set even higher this time?

As of late January 2026, the Magnificent 7 (Mag7) tech giants have experienced a significant sell-off, with Nvidia (NVDA) facing acute pressure that has resulted in a "value wipeout" of over $700 billion for the group. Looking at how these formerly dominant tech stocks are becoming a drag on the broader market, with many falling into correction territory. In this article, we would like to share a structured, analytical view on which Magnificent 7 stocks could be considered “buy-the-dip” candidates if the market stages a recovery rally in early 2026, and how investors might plan to take advantage of this environment given the severe sell-off and rotation out of mega-cap tech. Context — Sell-Off and Market Dynamics Recent market action: Major tech stocks known as the “Magnificent 7” — Apple,

What to Expect from Apple and Microsoft Strong earnings from these giants are viewed as essential to reversing recent underperformance, as both stocks have lagged the S&P 500 over the past year.  Apple: Forecast to post $2.65 EPS on $137.5B to $138.4B in revenue. Investors are focused on iPhone 17 momentum and "Apple Intelligence" adoption to justify its premium valuation. Microsoft: Expected to deliver $3.88 EPS on $80.2B in revenue. The primary driver will be Azure and AI growth, specifically how the OpenAI partnership and Copilot are translating into measurable returns.  Meta's Path to Regaining Confidence After an 11% post-earnings selloff in late 2024, Meta needs to balance strong growth with controlled spending to regain investor trust.  Earnings Targets: Analysts