To The Moon

On March 19, 2025, the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting, a pivotal event for markets and policymakers navigating a complex economic landscape shaped by persistent inflation, new tariff policies under the Trump administration, and a resilient yet uncertain U.S. economy. The resolution, Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference, and the market’s reaction provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s strategy and its implications for the economic outlook. This article delves into the FOMC resolution highlights, interprets the dot plot and Powell’s speech, analyzes the market’s performance, explores the reasons behind the stock market boost, and offers an analytical judgment on the current economic situation and future outlook. FOMC Resolution Highlights and Minutes The FOMC decided

The market Will go up after the publication 

My guess dedcwill stag any change until later this year. ⭐ If that whipsaws anyone?⭐

Yes it's whipsaw time 

ghjjj

ghiii

Whipsaw time 🤑🤑🤑🤑

Go go go go$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  

PCT: Fed Is Neutral v1.0 : PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk. Because Fed wants to sell bonds to raise USD. So want to keep interest rates as long as possible to increase demands of bonds. So Fed Put = cut rates. Is no where in sight. But stocks remain expensive with her high PE. So best is wait for Trump brinkmanship in tariffs to bring markets down first. #pandaszen #pandas #zen #hacks #ideas #analysis

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets showed overall weakness, yet market sentiment was polarized. In Greater China, the tech sector experienced a slight pullback, but the consumer sector took the lead, driving notable gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300. In the U.S., the stock market temporarily stabilized, ending its streak of consecutive declines. Although the Nasdaq surged on Friday, it still closed the week down by more than 2%. Key Events to Watch This Week: Macro Focus → The FOMC meeting will be the primary event. Sector Focus → The NVIDIA GTC Conference for AI industry updates. Stock Focus → A wave of Chinese company earnings, with special attention to Tencent, Xiaomi, and their AI outlooks. Key Market Themes Improving

Recently, the sentiment in the US stock market has experienced significant pullbacks.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ experienced a rebound over two days but then fell again on Tuesday.Despite this, investors continue to capitalize on lower prices, as evidenced by the third-largest weekly inflow into equities ever recorded by $Bank of America(BAC)$ from its private clients.1. Has the recent pullback in the U.S. stock market come to an end?According to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, investor sentiment plunged into the “extreme fear” zone in February and early March. However, as the market digests some of the negative factors, some investors are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic.The

The FOMC meeting on March 18-19, 2025, is widely expected to result in no rate changes, with the Fed holding rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid mixed economic signals.  While markets have rebounded from recent turbulence, whiplash risks persist due to heightened sensitivity to Fed guidance and lingering uncertainty over growth/inflation trade-offs.  Investors should brace for volatility as the Fed's updated projections and tone on future rate cuts could amplify swings in equities and bonds.  Short-term stability may hinge on whether the Fed leans "hawkish" (signaling patience) or "dovish" (opening the door to cuts).

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold prices continue to rise and face a resistance level near $3050, which must be broken to confirm further medium-term bullishness towards $3100-3200. Otherwise, if the resistance level remains intact, gold prices could fall towards $3000, or even $2950! Technical data on the daily chart suggests that the bullish trend will continue. Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at overbought levels, the technical indicators remain firmly to the upside with no signs of the upside drying up. Meanwhile, the gold price is well above all of its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resuming its upward move and curr

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 80% of traders lose money on FOMC weeks. If you want to be on the right side of the trade.. Read below! ✅1. The real trend ALWAYS occurs on Thursday after FOMC. Wait for this day to take a normal sized trade.2. Size your positions down by at least 50% to account for the volatility before Thursday3. Focus on sector leading stocks- Don't chase rotation or random tickers- These stocks have the best predictability for direction4. SPX premiums are priced at 2.5x for Wednesday so expect to see 80+ pt move minimum. Don't get caught off guard by the volatility2. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ dropped 23% in 4 weeks. Is it ready to lea

1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the

$StoneCo (STNE)$ Demonstrated strong execution and business model resilience in a complex macro environment, but need to validate growth sustainability in the 2025 interest rate cycle.Short term focus on software asset disposal progress and Q1 credit asset quality data, long term more on MSME customer growth, and international market expansion.Performance and market feedbackA quick look at core dataFinancial IndicatorsAdjusted Net Profit: R$2.2B (+41.3% yoy, ahead of guidance of R$1.9B)Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): R$7.27/share (+46.6% yoy)Total revenue: 14% yoy CAGR (2022-2024 CAGR)Operational IndicatorsMSMB Payments: TPV of R$454B (+22% yoy), of which R$403B (+15% yoy, 2% below guidance) for card paymentsRetail deposits: R$8.7B (+42% yoy, 24%

After the S&P 500 experienced a historic correction, the market is gradually showing signs of stabilization. The sentiment of options traders is shifting, with markets no longer betting on sharp declines, and even before U.S. stocks rebounded strongly last Friday, they had begun to sell off S&P 500 hedges.Data shows that compared to betting$S&P 500ETF (SPY) $Calls up 10%, put options that protect a 10% drop in SPY over the next three months cost has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This suggests that the market's fears of a further plunge have waned, although confidence in a rebound has not yet been fully established."We're likely to see a period of stability until at least next week," said Alon Rosin, head of institutional equity d

After the bell on March 20, $Micron Technology(MU)$ will report Q2 FY2025 earnings.Due to price hike expectations in, since the beginning of the year outperformed $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ , in the early March wave of the selloff is also quite tenacious performance.Earnings date-weighted implied stock price volatility of ±11.3% is relatively volatile.Expectations for current-quarter results are not too widely divergent at this point, with $Citigroup(C)$ even expecting EPS may improve somewhat: (Citi vs. Consensus)Revenue: $7.9 billion vs $7.9 billionGross Margin: 37.5% vs 37.5%Adjusted EPS: $1.29 vs $1.26But the focus

Got 200 $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$  bull run coming soon. 

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

On March 19, 2025, the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting, a pivotal event for markets and policymakers navigating a complex economic landscape shaped by persistent inflation, new tariff policies under the Trump administration, and a resilient yet uncertain U.S. economy. The resolution, Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference, and the market’s reaction provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s strategy and its implications for the economic outlook. This article delves into the FOMC resolution highlights, interprets the dot plot and Powell’s speech, analyzes the market’s performance, explores the reasons behind the stock market boost, and offers an analytical judgment on the current economic situation and future outlook. FOMC Resolution Highlights and Minutes The FOMC decided

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets showed overall weakness, yet market sentiment was polarized. In Greater China, the tech sector experienced a slight pullback, but the consumer sector took the lead, driving notable gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300. In the U.S., the stock market temporarily stabilized, ending its streak of consecutive declines. Although the Nasdaq surged on Friday, it still closed the week down by more than 2%. Key Events to Watch This Week: Macro Focus → The FOMC meeting will be the primary event. Sector Focus → The NVIDIA GTC Conference for AI industry updates. Stock Focus → A wave of Chinese company earnings, with special attention to Tencent, Xiaomi, and their AI outlooks. Key Market Themes Improving

Recently, the sentiment in the US stock market has experienced significant pullbacks.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ experienced a rebound over two days but then fell again on Tuesday.Despite this, investors continue to capitalize on lower prices, as evidenced by the third-largest weekly inflow into equities ever recorded by $Bank of America(BAC)$ from its private clients.1. Has the recent pullback in the U.S. stock market come to an end?According to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, investor sentiment plunged into the “extreme fear” zone in February and early March. However, as the market digests some of the negative factors, some investors are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic.The

1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the

$StoneCo (STNE)$ Demonstrated strong execution and business model resilience in a complex macro environment, but need to validate growth sustainability in the 2025 interest rate cycle.Short term focus on software asset disposal progress and Q1 credit asset quality data, long term more on MSME customer growth, and international market expansion.Performance and market feedbackA quick look at core dataFinancial IndicatorsAdjusted Net Profit: R$2.2B (+41.3% yoy, ahead of guidance of R$1.9B)Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): R$7.27/share (+46.6% yoy)Total revenue: 14% yoy CAGR (2022-2024 CAGR)Operational IndicatorsMSMB Payments: TPV of R$454B (+22% yoy), of which R$403B (+15% yoy, 2% below guidance) for card paymentsRetail deposits: R$8.7B (+42% yoy, 24%

After the S&P 500 experienced a historic correction, the market is gradually showing signs of stabilization. The sentiment of options traders is shifting, with markets no longer betting on sharp declines, and even before U.S. stocks rebounded strongly last Friday, they had begun to sell off S&P 500 hedges.Data shows that compared to betting$S&P 500ETF (SPY) $Calls up 10%, put options that protect a 10% drop in SPY over the next three months cost has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This suggests that the market's fears of a further plunge have waned, although confidence in a rebound has not yet been fully established."We're likely to see a period of stability until at least next week," said Alon Rosin, head of institutional equity d

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 80% of traders lose money on FOMC weeks. If you want to be on the right side of the trade.. Read below! ✅1. The real trend ALWAYS occurs on Thursday after FOMC. Wait for this day to take a normal sized trade.2. Size your positions down by at least 50% to account for the volatility before Thursday3. Focus on sector leading stocks- Don't chase rotation or random tickers- These stocks have the best predictability for direction4. SPX premiums are priced at 2.5x for Wednesday so expect to see 80+ pt move minimum. Don't get caught off guard by the volatility2. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ dropped 23% in 4 weeks. Is it ready to lea

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold prices continue to rise and face a resistance level near $3050, which must be broken to confirm further medium-term bullishness towards $3100-3200. Otherwise, if the resistance level remains intact, gold prices could fall towards $3000, or even $2950! Technical data on the daily chart suggests that the bullish trend will continue. Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at overbought levels, the technical indicators remain firmly to the upside with no signs of the upside drying up. Meanwhile, the gold price is well above all of its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resuming its upward move and curr

PCT: Fed Is Neutral v1.0 : PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk. Because Fed wants to sell bonds to raise USD. So want to keep interest rates as long as possible to increase demands of bonds. So Fed Put = cut rates. Is no where in sight. But stocks remain expensive with her high PE. So best is wait for Trump brinkmanship in tariffs to bring markets down first. #pandaszen #pandas #zen #hacks #ideas #analysis

After a turbulent start to the year, markets have shown signs of recovery, with major indices bouncing off recent lows. Investors are now asking: is this the beginning of a sustained rally, or just another temporary relief bounce before further downside? What’s Driving the Rebound? Several factors have contributed to the recent market strength, including cooling inflation data, resilient corporate earnings, and hopes that central banks may ease their tightening policies. Let’s break down the key drivers: 1. Inflation Cooling, Fed Pivot Hopes? Inflation has been a dominant force in the market’s volatility over the past year. Recent data suggests that price pressures may be easing, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks could soon pause or even pivot on inter

The market Will go up after the publication 

My guess dedcwill stag any change until later this year. ⭐ If that whipsaws anyone?⭐

Yes it's whipsaw time 

ghjjj

ghiii

Whipsaw time 🤑🤑🤑🤑

Go go go go$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  

The FOMC meeting on March 18-19, 2025, is widely expected to result in no rate changes, with the Fed holding rates steady at 4.25%-4.50% amid mixed economic signals.  While markets have rebounded from recent turbulence, whiplash risks persist due to heightened sensitivity to Fed guidance and lingering uncertainty over growth/inflation trade-offs.  Investors should brace for volatility as the Fed's updated projections and tone on future rate cuts could amplify swings in equities and bonds.  Short-term stability may hinge on whether the Fed leans "hawkish" (signaling patience) or "dovish" (opening the door to cuts).

Hi everyone! Disclaimer: The information and materials provided here, whether or not provided on TBI’s Substack (TBI), on third party websites, in marketing materials, newsletters or any form of publication are provided for general information and circulation only. None of the information contained here constitutes an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any currency, product or financial instrument, to make any investment, or to participate in any particular trading strategy. TBI does not take into account of your personal investment objectives, specific investment goals, specific needs or financial situation and makes no representation and assumes no liability to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided here. The information and publications are not intended

As the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) convenes for its two-day policy meeting on March 18-19, 2025, all eyes are on the Federal Reserve’s next move. With the interest rate decision and accompanying statements set to drop on March 19, investors, analysts, and policymakers are parsing the latest data for clues. Here’s what we know as of March 17, 2025, about the meeting, the expectations, and what a surprise could mean for markets. The Latest on the Fed’s March Meeting The FOMC meeting is underway, but no official hints have leaked yet—it’s business as usual for now. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and other officials have kept their cards close, stressing a cautious stance in recent weeks. With a strong economy, a robust labor market, and inflation still hovering above the Fed’s 2% target, th