To The Moon

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Thursday that the Federal Reserve's decision to significantly slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet this week actually sent a worrying signal that there is a problem with market demand for long-term federal debt."This should arouse people's alarm and be regarded as a disturbing trend," Summers said in an interview on TV program. He pointed to the move as a sign that Fed policymakers believe that "the market absorption capacity of long-term bonds is limited."The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will lower the upper limit on the amount of U.S. Treasury Bond that will not be reinvested after maturity from $25 billion per month to $5 billion starting in April. While Powell said the immediate trigger for policymakers

Is this a bull trap or recovery for S&P500? This definition is taken from Wikipedia: In stock market trading, a bull trap is an inaccurate signal that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is now heading upward, when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. It is seen as a trap because the bullish investor purchases the stock, thinking it will increase in value, but is trapped with a poor-performing stock whose value is still falling. S&P500 chart as of 21 Mar 2025 (Asia) Assessing a Bull Trap in the S&P 500 A bull trap occurs when the S&P 500 appears to rebound, luring investors, only to reverse downward. Picture a decline from 6,200 to 5,900, then a rally to 6,100 on short-lived optimism—perhaps monetary easing rumours — post the 105-poi

Stocks rallied after Powell’s dovish tone hinted at potential rate cuts, fueling hopes for a soft landing. The rebound could have legs if inflation continues to ease and the Fed stays supportive. However, risks remain — geopolitical tensions and economic data could still disrupt the rally. Growth and tech stocks may benefit most from lower rates, but cyclicals could lag if economic slowdown fears resurface. For now, staying selectively bullish on quality names seems like the smart play.

He always rescue the market. Rebound more

Rates should go up not down. For the amount of debt in play, investors deserve a higher yield 

Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

When will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ plunge in convergence?A conclusion: when the SPX has been falling for close to a month (30 days or so), the "momentum" of the VIX decreases dramatically, and if the market does not have an "extreme selloff" (e.g., a meltdown) or if the market does not expect a selloff (implied volatility is extremely high), the VIX could fall in tandem with the SPX.Why would such a scenario occur?Composition of the VIX IndexThe VIX Index is compiled by $Cboe Global Markets, Inc(CBOE)$ to reflect the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days through the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 Ind

$Powell(POWL)$ Powell’s dovish tone lifted market sentiment, easing rate hike fears. Lower yields and improved liquidity could support a longer rally. However, inflation data and economic growth remain key risks. If the Fed maintains a balanced stance, the rebound could extend. My view: cautiously bullish, watching for macro confirmation.

The core of this meeting is to ease market pressures through technical tapering adjustments, while maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation.Despite the rising risk of economic stagflation, the Fed is still trying to find a balance between "premature relaxation" and "excessive tightening".Earlier, the market focused on:Whether the pace of tapering slows further: early termination of QT cannot be ruled out if economic data deteriorates;The reliability of the expected rate cuts: if inflation sticky than expected, the dot plot may quickly turn.(The success of the Fed's "tightrope" strategy will depend on the outcome of the game of inflation and growth in the coming months)After the release of the resolution, U.S. stocks and bonds rose, the dollar fell back, the market bet on dovish tu

On March 19, 2025, the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting, a pivotal event for markets and policymakers navigating a complex economic landscape shaped by persistent inflation, new tariff policies under the Trump administration, and a resilient yet uncertain U.S. economy. The resolution, Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference, and the market’s reaction provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s strategy and its implications for the economic outlook. This article delves into the FOMC resolution highlights, interprets the dot plot and Powell’s speech, analyzes the market’s performance, explores the reasons behind the stock market boost, and offers an analytical judgment on the current economic situation and future outlook. FOMC Resolution Highlights and Minutes The FOMC decided

The market Will go up after the publication 

My guess dedcwill stag any change until later this year. ⭐ If that whipsaws anyone?⭐

Yes it's whipsaw time 

ghjjj

ghiii

Whipsaw time 🤑🤑🤑🤑

Go go go go$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  

PCT: Fed Is Neutral v1.0 : PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk. Because Fed wants to sell bonds to raise USD. So want to keep interest rates as long as possible to increase demands of bonds. So Fed Put = cut rates. Is no where in sight. But stocks remain expensive with her high PE. So best is wait for Trump brinkmanship in tariffs to bring markets down first. #pandaszen #pandas #zen #hacks #ideas #analysis

Overnight, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as anticipated, while announcing significant policy adjustments. According to the FOMC statement, beginning April 1st, the Fed will slow its balance sheet reduction pace, decreasing Treasury securities reduction limits from $25 billion/month to $5 billion/month, while maintaining the MBS reduction cap at $35 billion/month. The committee noted increased economic uncertainty but still forecasts two interest rate cuts this year, totaling 50 basis points altogether.Benchmark Rate Unchanged, Balance Sheet Reduction Slowed, Two Rate Cuts - All Within ExpectationsFed Chairman Powell broke new ground in the press conference by addressing tariffs for the first time, acknowledging that Trump's policies are impacting the economy. He emphasized

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said on Thursday that the Federal Reserve's decision to significantly slow down the pace of shrinking balance sheet this week actually sent a worrying signal that there is a problem with market demand for long-term federal debt."This should arouse people's alarm and be regarded as a disturbing trend," Summers said in an interview on TV program. He pointed to the move as a sign that Fed policymakers believe that "the market absorption capacity of long-term bonds is limited."The Federal Reserve announced on Wednesday that it will lower the upper limit on the amount of U.S. Treasury Bond that will not be reinvested after maturity from $25 billion per month to $5 billion starting in April. While Powell said the immediate trigger for policymakers

Is this a bull trap or recovery for S&P500? This definition is taken from Wikipedia: In stock market trading, a bull trap is an inaccurate signal that a declining trend in a stock or index has reversed and is now heading upward, when, in fact, the security will continue to decline. It is seen as a trap because the bullish investor purchases the stock, thinking it will increase in value, but is trapped with a poor-performing stock whose value is still falling. S&P500 chart as of 21 Mar 2025 (Asia) Assessing a Bull Trap in the S&P 500 A bull trap occurs when the S&P 500 appears to rebound, luring investors, only to reverse downward. Picture a decline from 6,200 to 5,900, then a rally to 6,100 on short-lived optimism—perhaps monetary easing rumours — post the 105-poi

Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$

When will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ plunge in convergence?A conclusion: when the SPX has been falling for close to a month (30 days or so), the "momentum" of the VIX decreases dramatically, and if the market does not have an "extreme selloff" (e.g., a meltdown) or if the market does not expect a selloff (implied volatility is extremely high), the VIX could fall in tandem with the SPX.Why would such a scenario occur?Composition of the VIX IndexThe VIX Index is compiled by $Cboe Global Markets, Inc(CBOE)$ to reflect the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days through the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 Ind

On March 19, 2025, the FOMC concluded its two-day meeting, a pivotal event for markets and policymakers navigating a complex economic landscape shaped by persistent inflation, new tariff policies under the Trump administration, and a resilient yet uncertain U.S. economy. The resolution, Jerome Powell’s subsequent press conference, and the market’s reaction provide critical insights into the Federal Reserve’s strategy and its implications for the economic outlook. This article delves into the FOMC resolution highlights, interprets the dot plot and Powell’s speech, analyzes the market’s performance, explores the reasons behind the stock market boost, and offers an analytical judgment on the current economic situation and future outlook. FOMC Resolution Highlights and Minutes The FOMC decided

The core of this meeting is to ease market pressures through technical tapering adjustments, while maintaining high interest rates to curb inflation.Despite the rising risk of economic stagflation, the Fed is still trying to find a balance between "premature relaxation" and "excessive tightening".Earlier, the market focused on:Whether the pace of tapering slows further: early termination of QT cannot be ruled out if economic data deteriorates;The reliability of the expected rate cuts: if inflation sticky than expected, the dot plot may quickly turn.(The success of the Fed's "tightrope" strategy will depend on the outcome of the game of inflation and growth in the coming months)After the release of the resolution, U.S. stocks and bonds rose, the dollar fell back, the market bet on dovish tu

Stocks rallied after Powell’s dovish tone hinted at potential rate cuts, fueling hopes for a soft landing. The rebound could have legs if inflation continues to ease and the Fed stays supportive. However, risks remain — geopolitical tensions and economic data could still disrupt the rally. Growth and tech stocks may benefit most from lower rates, but cyclicals could lag if economic slowdown fears resurface. For now, staying selectively bullish on quality names seems like the smart play.

Performance of Global Equity Indices(in US Dollar) Last week, global equity markets showed overall weakness, yet market sentiment was polarized. In Greater China, the tech sector experienced a slight pullback, but the consumer sector took the lead, driving notable gains in the Shanghai Composite Index and the CSI 300. In the U.S., the stock market temporarily stabilized, ending its streak of consecutive declines. Although the Nasdaq surged on Friday, it still closed the week down by more than 2%. Key Events to Watch This Week: Macro Focus → The FOMC meeting will be the primary event. Sector Focus → The NVIDIA GTC Conference for AI industry updates. Stock Focus → A wave of Chinese company earnings, with special attention to Tencent, Xiaomi, and their AI outlooks. Key Market Themes Improving

Recently, the sentiment in the US stock market has experienced significant pullbacks.The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ experienced a rebound over two days but then fell again on Tuesday.Despite this, investors continue to capitalize on lower prices, as evidenced by the third-largest weekly inflow into equities ever recorded by $Bank of America(BAC)$ from its private clients.1. Has the recent pullback in the U.S. stock market come to an end?According to CNN’s Fear and Greed Index, investor sentiment plunged into the “extreme fear” zone in February and early March. However, as the market digests some of the negative factors, some investors are beginning to turn cautiously optimistic.The

1. Market Commentary on Wednesday’s FOMCAfter two consecutive days of rebound, the market resumed its decline today. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ gained a total of 2.78% over Friday and Monday, slightly above the historical average rebound of +2.45% following a 10% correction, making it a relatively normal occurrence (see last Thursday Commentary).The most important macro event this week is Wendesday’s FOMC meeting. Based on interest rate futures pricing, the probability of a rate cut tomorrow is only 1%. We believe this pricing is reasonable—economic weakness is not yet evident enough, and uncertainty surrounding the inflationary impact of tariff policies gives the Fed no reason to cut rates at this moment. Therefore, the market's focus will be on the

$StoneCo (STNE)$ Demonstrated strong execution and business model resilience in a complex macro environment, but need to validate growth sustainability in the 2025 interest rate cycle.Short term focus on software asset disposal progress and Q1 credit asset quality data, long term more on MSME customer growth, and international market expansion.Performance and market feedbackA quick look at core dataFinancial IndicatorsAdjusted Net Profit: R$2.2B (+41.3% yoy, ahead of guidance of R$1.9B)Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS): R$7.27/share (+46.6% yoy)Total revenue: 14% yoy CAGR (2022-2024 CAGR)Operational IndicatorsMSMB Payments: TPV of R$454B (+22% yoy), of which R$403B (+15% yoy, 2% below guidance) for card paymentsRetail deposits: R$8.7B (+42% yoy, 24%

After the S&P 500 experienced a historic correction, the market is gradually showing signs of stabilization. The sentiment of options traders is shifting, with markets no longer betting on sharp declines, and even before U.S. stocks rebounded strongly last Friday, they had begun to sell off S&P 500 hedges.Data shows that compared to betting$S&P 500ETF (SPY) $Calls up 10%, put options that protect a 10% drop in SPY over the next three months cost has dropped to its lowest level since 2023. This suggests that the market's fears of a further plunge have waned, although confidence in a rebound has not yet been fully established."We're likely to see a period of stability until at least next week," said Alon Rosin, head of institutional equity d

He always rescue the market. Rebound more

After a turbulent start to the year, markets have shown signs of recovery, with major indices bouncing off recent lows. Investors are now asking: is this the beginning of a sustained rally, or just another temporary relief bounce before further downside? What’s Driving the Rebound? Several factors have contributed to the recent market strength, including cooling inflation data, resilient corporate earnings, and hopes that central banks may ease their tightening policies. Let’s break down the key drivers: 1. Inflation Cooling, Fed Pivot Hopes? Inflation has been a dominant force in the market’s volatility over the past year. Recent data suggests that price pressures may be easing, leading to speculation that the Federal Reserve and other central banks could soon pause or even pivot on inter

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some option strategies with you!1. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 80% of traders lose money on FOMC weeks. If you want to be on the right side of the trade.. Read below! ✅1. The real trend ALWAYS occurs on Thursday after FOMC. Wait for this day to take a normal sized trade.2. Size your positions down by at least 50% to account for the volatility before Thursday3. Focus on sector leading stocks- Don't chase rotation or random tickers- These stocks have the best predictability for direction4. SPX premiums are priced at 2.5x for Wednesday so expect to see 80+ pt move minimum. Don't get caught off guard by the volatility2. $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ dropped 23% in 4 weeks. Is it ready to lea

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you!1. $Gold - main 2504(GCmain)$ Technical: Gold prices continue to rise and face a resistance level near $3050, which must be broken to confirm further medium-term bullishness towards $3100-3200. Otherwise, if the resistance level remains intact, gold prices could fall towards $3000, or even $2950! Technical data on the daily chart suggests that the bullish trend will continue. Despite the Relative Strength Index (RSI) being at overbought levels, the technical indicators remain firmly to the upside with no signs of the upside drying up. Meanwhile, the gold price is well above all of its moving averages, with the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) resuming its upward move and curr

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Rates should go up not down. For the amount of debt in play, investors deserve a higher yield 

$Powell(POWL)$ Powell’s dovish tone lifted market sentiment, easing rate hike fears. Lower yields and improved liquidity could support a longer rally. However, inflation data and economic growth remain key risks. If the Fed maintains a balanced stance, the rebound could extend. My view: cautiously bullish, watching for macro confirmation.