To The Moon

The valuation of TSLA stock, unlike in past years, is actually quite attractiveThe Street is greatly underestimating the outlook of Tesla (TSLA) stock.The automaker’s powerful brand image remains largely intactThe valuation of TSLA stock, unlike in past years, is actually quite attractive.Source: Zigres / Shutterstock.comWhen it comes to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and TSLA stock, Wall Street has truly gone from one extreme to the other.  Back in October 2021, the shares had a gargantuan $1.2 trillion market capitalization, and the company could do nothing wrong and basically had no meaningful challenges in the eyes of the Street.Fast forward just 15 months, and the shares’ market capitalization has plunged to less than $400 billion. And most on the Street have now decided that the automaker can do almost nothing right and will never be able to overcome its daunting challenges.Not surprisingly, the truth — and the proper valuation for TSLA stock — lies roughly midway between the two extremes. But that means that Tesla is well-positioned to make a huge comeback in the coming weeks and months. Here are five reasons why that’s the case.Tesla’s Brand Remains Extremely PowerfulSource: ShutterstockIt’s true that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s actions at Twitter undermined Tesla’s brand among some hard-core Democrats and liberals in its home market of the U.S. But consider that, in 2020, only 25% of Americans identifiedas liberal.If two-thirds of those Americans decide never to buy Teslas, the automaker’s potential customer base in the U.S. will have been cut by only roughly 17%. And that’s only among American consumers; it doesn’t factor in people and businesses in other nations and companies, the vast majority of whom are unlikely to be repelled enough by Musk’s policies at Twitter to avoid buying Tesla’s EVs.So the impact of Musk’s moves at Twitter on Tesla’s overall business is likely to be low. And, among the vast majority of the company’s potential customers globally, itsbrand image as a high-class, extremely high-tech, aspirational EV maker is likely to remain firmly intact.For evidence of that assertion, consider that Tesla’s global deliveries still jumped 40%year over year last quarter, whileMorningstarrecently reiterated its previous estimate that the automaker’s deliveries would exceed 5 million in the next seven years.Further, Tesla’s Model Y was the best-selling vehicleof any type in Europe in November, and research firm Recurrent Auto predicted last month that Tesla’s Model Y wouldbecome the best-selling vehicle of any type in 2023. Finally, showing confidence in its own outlook, the automaker itself intends to spend over $700 million on expanding its battery factory in Texas.Far Too Much Was Made of Tesla’s Price Cuts and Its China ShutdownSource: Akarat Phasura / Shutterstock.comI’m not an economist or even a finance professional. But I did learn about the impact of supply and demand on price. Basically, if supply goes up and demand stays constant, prices will go down. So with the global supply of EVs rapidly increasing, nobody should be shocked that Tesla has had to cut its prices.But the automaker’s operatingincome came in at $3.69 billion in the third quarter and $2.5 billion in Q2. As a result, Tesla can cut prices and continue raking in big profits. Moreover, its higher sales volumes will probably more than makes up for the pressure on its bottom line caused by the price reductions. And given its current, reasonable valuation, that dynamic should boost TSLA stock even if its margins drop slightly.The Tesla Semi Is Likely to Be a Game ChangerSource: TeslaTesla’s new full-size truck has a number of impressive attributes that should enable it to sell like the proverbial “hotcakes.”Most importantly, it can reportedly “save companies as much as $70,000 per year, compared with diesel-powered trucks.” And in a point that should differentiate it from most battery-electric competitors, it is able to carry “a full load 500 miles on a single charge” while it “has triple the power of any diesel truck,” Elon Musk reported. What’s more, the EV is reportedly much easier to operate than conventional trucks, making truck drivers’ jobs easier.Also likely to make the Tesla Semi popular is that companies can lock in deals with utility companies for low electricity rates. On the other hand, with gasoline, firms are subject to the vagaries of the oil and gasoline markets.Tesla Is Thriving From Selling SubscriptionsSource: ShutterstockThe same high technology that enables Tesla to update its EVs electronically is enabling it to sell subscriptions for its autonomous driving servicesand other software updates. The automaker also makes money from selling subscriptions to its fast-charging network.In the future, I expect TSLA to start selling subscriptions to other services, such as security and highly detailed battery monitoring. These subscriptions, along with the automaker’s regulatory credits, generate high-margin revenue that boosts its bottom line.ValuationSource: patpitchaya / Shutterstock.comLong gone are the days when TSLA stock traded for 15 times its revenue or 100 times its profits. With the shares now down to a relatively skinny price-earnings ratio of 22.6 times, Tesla’s valuation has actually become quite attractive.Source: InvestorPlace$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

Still learning...

UBS downgraded Microsoft to Neutral with price target $250, from previous rating of Buy with price target $300. Short term bearishness in market sentiment presents good opportunityfor longs. Microsoft has strong wide economicmoat, their Office products has high switchingcost and network effect, while Intelligent Cloud segment including Windows Server, SQL Data Base Management System, Azure, Enterprise Services and Visual Studio has a wide moat based on high switching cost, network effectsand cost advantages.$Microsoft(MSFT)$ 

Apple Down 25%, Meta 65% As Tech Stocks Hit Rough Patch In 2022: 4 Factors That Could Work In Sector's Favor In 2023 Tech stocks just had their annus horribilis. The sell-off in the space was so indiscriminate that most shed billions or millions from their market capitalizations The tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  has lost almost twice as much as the broader $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$, underlining the skewed nature of the market sell-off toward the tech space. The economy did have a part in the tech meltdown, but it alone cannot be squarely blamed. Tech stocks were on an extended run between 2016 and 2021, pushing valuations of many equities to unsustainable levels, Christopher Baggini, global head of equity strategy of JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, said in a note. These valuations, according to the analyst, could not be sustained in a higher interest rate environment. The situation got worse with the "complicated dynamics of slowing economic growth, uneven demand, inventory management and gradually improving supply chains," he said. For taking stock of the ravages, we don't have to look past the big techs, which now look like a pale shadow of their old selves. The FAANG stocks, save $Apple(AAPL)$ , are down by much more than the Nasdaq Composite as well as the Nasdaq 100 Index. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  has the worst loss for the year so far in this category, followed by $Netflix(NFLX)$  and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ . It was against this backdrop that these companies began shifting their focus on operational discipline in a bid to preserve margins. The result: thousands of employees taken off payrolls, cost cuts, projects shelved and unprofitable divisions shut down. Meta for one announced massive layoffs numbering 11,000 in November. When Elon Musk took Twitter private, he planned a three-quarter reduction in payrolls. Despite the extremely attractive valuations, not many analysts agree that a reversal is around the corner. Macroeconomic headwinds could prove to be a pushback for the sector, as circumspect consumers abstain from huge purchases. The Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell has signaled that rate hikes could continue well into 2023, albeit at a slower pace. This has a direct bearing on consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, though abating, still runs high, leaving consumers with less real income to splurge on consumer discretionary items. Tech supply chains still remain constrained amid adverse geopolitical challenges. To make matters worse, competitive pressure is intensifying, hurting revenues. A case in point is TikTok, which has been blamed for part of the weaknesses at most other communication tech companies. Even amid all these dark clouds, there are a few silver linings. 4 Themes Supportive Of Tech Stocks: 1. Potential Easing Of Dollar Strength: Most technology companies, especially big techs, conduct businesses globally and derive a substantial portion of their revenue in local currencies. As the dollar continued to rise against other major currencies amid the Fed's aggressive tightening, it shaved some percentage points off topline growth. Forex volatility is a headwind for big techs, which have 35%-40% revenue exposure to Europe, and a stronger dollar is a 400-basis-point top-line headwind, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said, Axios reported. With the Fed expected to slow down the pace of rate hikes or even pause in the new year, analysts see the greenback weakening in 2023. This should remove one of the overhangs around the tech space. 2. M&A, Consolidation: Valuations of tech companies are below the past five-year averages, Ives said in a recent note. This, the analyst said, could lead to a spate of M&A transactions in the space in 2023. The M&A wave has already begun.  3. Lean, Mean Structures: Industry veterans and analysts blame much of the current predicament on the excesses of tech companies, which bloated their cost structures. From irrational exuberance, companies are now coming to terms with the stark reality, and this has forced them to announce massive layoffs and rethink priorities. Most have begun focusing on a smaller number of high-priority growth areas, JPMorgan analysts said in a recent commentary. The analysts pointed to Amazon's flexibility in pushing first-party versus third-party inventory and its Prime offering, Alphabet's focus on diversifying its revenue streams by developing its non-ad business and Meta leaning toward its AI discovery engine, ad and business platforms as well as its multiyear transition to the metaverse. 4. Supportive Valuations: Big techs alone have lost a combined market cap of $2.5 trillion in 2022, JPMorgan estimates. The oversold levels typically suggest a rebound may be around the corner. This time around, the upcoming year is fraught with risks. Consumer tech companies could face the brunt of negativity as COVID-19 tailwinds abate, energy prices rise in Europe and global economic activity slows, Franklin Templeton said in its 2023 technology sector outlook. Valuations are nearing the point, where they have begun to reflect expectations of below-trend growth continuing into 2023, the firm said. @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  

$NVDA so, if you believe you will see 3200 on S&P 500 then sell this if you believe otherwise it still is a great company to own here at a decent discount. Remember shorting this while market moves up is a poor risk management IMO…Marvell, Tesla, Amazon etc all up. Soon Nvidia will be up too. Buying a few shares here. still keeping my long position tho.$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

With the US share market closed for Thanksgiving it is a good opportunity to reflect on the returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ month and year to date and exam what may lie ahead. 2022 has been a difficult year for stocks with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ falling 27.5% from its January intraday high of 4,818 to an intraday low of 3,491 in mid-October.From this October low the market has rallied 15.6% to 4,034 on Wednesday.So, will this bear market rally succeed where others (January, March, May and June) have failed this year?  Time will tell!Mid Term Election EffectWhat we do know is that historically stocks tend to sell off in the two quarters ahead of midterm elections and that they tend to bounce higher in the two quarters after the midterm elections.  A recent article in Forbes included the following graph that highlights the negative returns in the Q2 and Q3 prior to midterms and then a bounce.  And yes, this pattern is being exhibited at the moment.Other historical patterns include:1. the best months to buy stock over the last 40 years, from 1980 to 2020,2. Santa Claus rally.Best months to buy stocksThe table below shows the average % change per month between 1980 and 2020 and shows that the best months for stocks have been April +1.97%, October +1.13%, November +1.55% & December +1.22% (and yes this includes October 1987 and October 2007).September is typically the worst month for stock market declines with September averaging a -0.52% loss over the last 40 years.Santa Claus RallyMany market pundits further describe a rally in market returns from Thanksgiving to the second trading day on the New Year.  This definitely occurred at the end of the spectacular bull run that finished at the start of this year on January 3, 2022.  As an example, a recent article by Options Strategist - Lawrence McMillan states that:There are actually three different positive (bullish) seasonal systems that occur between Thanksgiving and the start of the new year. In short, they are: 1) the post-Thanksgiving rally,2) the “January effect,” and3) the “Santa Claus rally.”These encompass the entire period between the close of trading on the day before Thanksgiving through the second trading day of the New Year. Moreover, small caps stocks ($IWM(IWM)$ ) normally outperform large-cap ($SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ) stocks over that time frame.The following table from the Traders Almanac show the returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ from 1950 to 2021 with an average return of 2.65% and the Russell 2000 from 1979 to 2021 with an average return of 3.38%.Moving away from these Technical Analysis factors, other interesting fundamental factors that may generate buying interest are:1. Decline in short interest.2. Declining dominance of FAANG stocks as a ratio of market cap in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 3. Declining PE ratios4. Convergence of index PE ratio’sThe following chart highlights the decline in S&P 500 short interest as a percentage of total market capitalisation of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ that peaked at over 25% in mid-September to just under 17% on Wednesday 23, November.Source: Tiger TradeThe distribution of capital amongst the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is realigning and the FAANG and Tesla stock dominance of the index is arguably declining. Source: Tiger TradeThe following table shows the YTD returns of the 12 sectors of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks to 23 November 2002 Sector YTD % Return Energy 76 Utilities 4 Consumer Non Cyclical 3 Financial -3 Basic Materials -8 Transportation -8 Capital Goods -13 Conglomerates -20 Consumer Discretionary -20 Healthcare -23 Services -23 Technology -29  The P/E Ratios of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies have declined to a more realistic/palatable 21% compared to 26% at the beginning of the year and 36% at the start of 2021.Source: Tiger TradeThe P/E ratio of the Nasdaq stocks has also declined relative to converge with the P/E of  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks. Source: Tiger Trade

Over recent weeks $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$   laid off 11,000 workers, about 13% of its overall workforce.  $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ slashed 10,000 employees, about 3% of its corporate workforce.

Shorting US stocks now may not be a wise choice even though US economy looks set to enter into a recession and may drop even further. Market looks oversold and may rebound. It could be better to just buy in tranches. Markets are always moving up and down, it's only a matter of time it'll go back up again. 

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ share price took a significant hit, sliding 43.8% in 2022.  Ad revenue spiked 25% year over year in the most recent quarter to $9.5 billion. Amazon's reach in e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising shouldn't be overlooked.

Daily market update  Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average ticked lower Thursday night as investors continued evaluating earnings reports and tougher language from Federal Reserve speakers. Futures connected to the 30-stock index inched down 54 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500′s futures traded near flat, while Nasdaq-100 futures jumped 0.1%. Thursday brought another day of drops for the major indexes. The S&P 500 shed 0.31%, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.35%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average inched downward by 0.02%. Cisco shares rose during regular trading, jumping off of earnings results. Meanwhile companies posting results after the closing bell such as Gap, Ross Stores and Palo Alto Networks added to the mix of companies outperforming expectations. But investors also had to consider comments from more than half a dozen Fed speakers at events across the country. Notably, St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard said Thursday that “the policy rate is not yet in a zone that may be considered sufficiently restrictive.” He suggested that the appropriate zone for the federal funds rate could be in the 5% to 7% range, which is higher than what the market is pricing.

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ gained 3%, $Snowflake(SNOW)$   jumped 4.3%, $Shopify(SHOP)$ surged 6.2% as of 12:10 p.m. ET. Investors are buying up shares of their favorite technology stocks, hoping that the worst of the bear market is behind us. Shopify, Snowflake, and Palantir stocks will likely continue to experience significant volatility as macroeconomic data moves the pendulum far more than financial performance. 

Daily market update  The S&P 500 rose Tuesday after another report signaled that inflation could be slowing. The broad market index advanced 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. Earlier in the day it rose as much as 450 points. Major indexes traded off their highs, with the Dow and S&P briefly dipping into the red, after crude oil prices moved higher suddenly. Oil prices later eased from those highs, with West Texas Intermediate futures last up 1.2% at $86.90 per barrel. The major averages initially rallied after the producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, showed a 0.2% increase for the month of October, versus the consensus estimate for a 0.4% increase from Dow Jones. The report comes after last week’s consumer price index data showed signs of inflationary pressure abating last month, sparking a sharp rally. “The PPI read certainly adds more fuel to the fire for those who feel we may finally be on a downward inflation trend,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office. “The market embraced last week’s consumer downtick and today’s initial reaction seems to be more of the same.” The peak-inflation narrative is gaining traction, but the bar for a Fed pivot is still high, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “There will be trepidation at the central bank given their credibility concerns and desire to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s (i.e., stop and start policy that prolonged the inflationary spell),” he said. “But the crumbs are already being laid for a deceleration in pace of tightening heading into 2023.”

Tech Layoffs a snowball effect ? Layoffs frenzy cuts Mega-Tech’s share price in a detrimental effect ? $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : 10% of salaried workers Twitter (now privately owned by Elon Musk): 50% including executives $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ : 11000 jobs $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : 10,000 jobs Is it a bargain for stock owners or still a strategic move to stay in safe havens like high interest bonds ? #investsafe #techflakes #techlayoff #fedhikes #inflationwoes @TigerPM  @Tiger_Earnings  @小虎通知  @Daily_Discussion  @TigerWire 

$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ is preparing to lay off roughly 10,000 employees this week, about 1% of Amazon's 1.5 million global workforce. Amazon miss analysts revenue expectations and issue lower fourth quarter guidance than predicted. Shares are down 40% year-to-date.

With the "How they make money" graph, it is much easier to compare their perform in Q3.It is no wonder that $Airbnb, Inc.(ABNB)$ earns more than 12B in the single quarter, while $Booking Holdings(BKNG)$ follows. $Expedia(EXPE)$ seems bleeding a lot in marketing expensed, while $TripAdvisor(TRIP)$ shows the same situation.

$Intel(INTC)$ Director, Lip Bu Tan, bought 48,146 shares on 11/08/22 at $27.9767: $1.3 million in total. Shares were up 7.4% for the week. $Datadog(DDOG)$  Director, Matthew Jacobson, via ICONIQ Strategic Partners, bought 719,894 shares from 11/07/22-11/08/22 at prices from $69.2621-$71.0229: $50 million in total. Shares climbed 15.8% for the week. $Unifi(UFI)$   Director, Ken Langone, bought 100,000 shares on 11/08/22 at $7.09. Director, Archibald Cox, bought 50,000 shares on 11/08/22 at $7.23. Shares jumped 18.6% for the week.

Market next week The S&P 500 closed out its best week since June as a report on Thursday showing slowing inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve would soon slow its tightening campaign. The broader market index added 0.9%, to close at 3,992.93. This brought its gain for the week to 5.9%, its best week since the one ended June 24 of this year. The Nasdaq Composite added about 1.9% to end at 11,323.33 as investors snapped up tech shares on hopes interest rates would ease. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.1%, closing at 33,747.86. Tech stocks on Friday shook off a decline in cryptocurrencies. Virtual currencies tumbled sharply this week and once again came under pressure Friday after FTX filed for bankruptcy protection, and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried resigned. Bitcoin and ether both declined. Still, tech stocks and related crypto stocks rebounded after opening lower Friday. The tech sector in the S&P 500 surged 10% through Friday, its best weekly performance since April 2020. Amazon was up more than 4% on Friday, while Google-parent Alphabet was 2.6% higher.

$AMD(AMD)$ Good trend to see already hit bottom after crossing 20 week low.  Should see a Bullish now. Good trend to add some if you like @TigerStars @TigerEvents @Daily_Discussion 

These top-tier tech giants have enjoyed the glory for the past 10 to 20 years for their innovative products and services, reflected in their market capitalization and share prices that have grown exponentially. However, the historical data also shows that when hitting the peak, it's time to adjust, where the markets will think about who is the strongest to continue to grow and who will decay over time.

The valuation of TSLA stock, unlike in past years, is actually quite attractiveThe Street is greatly underestimating the outlook of Tesla (TSLA) stock.The automaker’s powerful brand image remains largely intactThe valuation of TSLA stock, unlike in past years, is actually quite attractive.Source: Zigres / Shutterstock.comWhen it comes to Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) and TSLA stock, Wall Street has truly gone from one extreme to the other.  Back in October 2021, the shares had a gargantuan $1.2 trillion market capitalization, and the company could do nothing wrong and basically had no meaningful challenges in the eyes of the Street.Fast forward just 15 months, and the shares’ market capitalization has plunged to less than $400 billion. And most on the Street have now decided that the automaker can do almost nothing right and will never be able to overcome its daunting challenges.Not surprisingly, the truth — and the proper valuation for TSLA stock — lies roughly midway between the two extremes. But that means that Tesla is well-positioned to make a huge comeback in the coming weeks and months. Here are five reasons why that’s the case.Tesla’s Brand Remains Extremely PowerfulSource: ShutterstockIt’s true that Tesla CEO Elon Musk’s actions at Twitter undermined Tesla’s brand among some hard-core Democrats and liberals in its home market of the U.S. But consider that, in 2020, only 25% of Americans identifiedas liberal.If two-thirds of those Americans decide never to buy Teslas, the automaker’s potential customer base in the U.S. will have been cut by only roughly 17%. And that’s only among American consumers; it doesn’t factor in people and businesses in other nations and companies, the vast majority of whom are unlikely to be repelled enough by Musk’s policies at Twitter to avoid buying Tesla’s EVs.So the impact of Musk’s moves at Twitter on Tesla’s overall business is likely to be low. And, among the vast majority of the company’s potential customers globally, itsbrand image as a high-class, extremely high-tech, aspirational EV maker is likely to remain firmly intact.For evidence of that assertion, consider that Tesla’s global deliveries still jumped 40%year over year last quarter, whileMorningstarrecently reiterated its previous estimate that the automaker’s deliveries would exceed 5 million in the next seven years.Further, Tesla’s Model Y was the best-selling vehicleof any type in Europe in November, and research firm Recurrent Auto predicted last month that Tesla’s Model Y wouldbecome the best-selling vehicle of any type in 2023. Finally, showing confidence in its own outlook, the automaker itself intends to spend over $700 million on expanding its battery factory in Texas.Far Too Much Was Made of Tesla’s Price Cuts and Its China ShutdownSource: Akarat Phasura / Shutterstock.comI’m not an economist or even a finance professional. But I did learn about the impact of supply and demand on price. Basically, if supply goes up and demand stays constant, prices will go down. So with the global supply of EVs rapidly increasing, nobody should be shocked that Tesla has had to cut its prices.But the automaker’s operatingincome came in at $3.69 billion in the third quarter and $2.5 billion in Q2. As a result, Tesla can cut prices and continue raking in big profits. Moreover, its higher sales volumes will probably more than makes up for the pressure on its bottom line caused by the price reductions. And given its current, reasonable valuation, that dynamic should boost TSLA stock even if its margins drop slightly.The Tesla Semi Is Likely to Be a Game ChangerSource: TeslaTesla’s new full-size truck has a number of impressive attributes that should enable it to sell like the proverbial “hotcakes.”Most importantly, it can reportedly “save companies as much as $70,000 per year, compared with diesel-powered trucks.” And in a point that should differentiate it from most battery-electric competitors, it is able to carry “a full load 500 miles on a single charge” while it “has triple the power of any diesel truck,” Elon Musk reported. What’s more, the EV is reportedly much easier to operate than conventional trucks, making truck drivers’ jobs easier.Also likely to make the Tesla Semi popular is that companies can lock in deals with utility companies for low electricity rates. On the other hand, with gasoline, firms are subject to the vagaries of the oil and gasoline markets.Tesla Is Thriving From Selling SubscriptionsSource: ShutterstockThe same high technology that enables Tesla to update its EVs electronically is enabling it to sell subscriptions for its autonomous driving servicesand other software updates. The automaker also makes money from selling subscriptions to its fast-charging network.In the future, I expect TSLA to start selling subscriptions to other services, such as security and highly detailed battery monitoring. These subscriptions, along with the automaker’s regulatory credits, generate high-margin revenue that boosts its bottom line.ValuationSource: patpitchaya / Shutterstock.comLong gone are the days when TSLA stock traded for 15 times its revenue or 100 times its profits. With the shares now down to a relatively skinny price-earnings ratio of 22.6 times, Tesla’s valuation has actually become quite attractive.Source: InvestorPlace$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$

With the US share market closed for Thanksgiving it is a good opportunity to reflect on the returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ month and year to date and exam what may lie ahead. 2022 has been a difficult year for stocks with the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ falling 27.5% from its January intraday high of 4,818 to an intraday low of 3,491 in mid-October.From this October low the market has rallied 15.6% to 4,034 on Wednesday.So, will this bear market rally succeed where others (January, March, May and June) have failed this year?  Time will tell!Mid Term Election EffectWhat we do know is that historically stocks tend to sell off in the two quarters ahead of midterm elections and that they tend to bounce higher in the two quarters after the midterm elections.  A recent article in Forbes included the following graph that highlights the negative returns in the Q2 and Q3 prior to midterms and then a bounce.  And yes, this pattern is being exhibited at the moment.Other historical patterns include:1. the best months to buy stock over the last 40 years, from 1980 to 2020,2. Santa Claus rally.Best months to buy stocksThe table below shows the average % change per month between 1980 and 2020 and shows that the best months for stocks have been April +1.97%, October +1.13%, November +1.55% & December +1.22% (and yes this includes October 1987 and October 2007).September is typically the worst month for stock market declines with September averaging a -0.52% loss over the last 40 years.Santa Claus RallyMany market pundits further describe a rally in market returns from Thanksgiving to the second trading day on the New Year.  This definitely occurred at the end of the spectacular bull run that finished at the start of this year on January 3, 2022.  As an example, a recent article by Options Strategist - Lawrence McMillan states that:There are actually three different positive (bullish) seasonal systems that occur between Thanksgiving and the start of the new year. In short, they are: 1) the post-Thanksgiving rally,2) the “January effect,” and3) the “Santa Claus rally.”These encompass the entire period between the close of trading on the day before Thanksgiving through the second trading day of the New Year. Moreover, small caps stocks ($IWM(IWM)$ ) normally outperform large-cap ($SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ ) stocks over that time frame.The following table from the Traders Almanac show the returns of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ from 1950 to 2021 with an average return of 2.65% and the Russell 2000 from 1979 to 2021 with an average return of 3.38%.Moving away from these Technical Analysis factors, other interesting fundamental factors that may generate buying interest are:1. Decline in short interest.2. Declining dominance of FAANG stocks as a ratio of market cap in the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ 3. Declining PE ratios4. Convergence of index PE ratio’sThe following chart highlights the decline in S&P 500 short interest as a percentage of total market capitalisation of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ that peaked at over 25% in mid-September to just under 17% on Wednesday 23, November.Source: Tiger TradeThe distribution of capital amongst the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ is realigning and the FAANG and Tesla stock dominance of the index is arguably declining. Source: Tiger TradeThe following table shows the YTD returns of the 12 sectors of the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks to 23 November 2002 Sector YTD % Return Energy 76 Utilities 4 Consumer Non Cyclical 3 Financial -3 Basic Materials -8 Transportation -8 Capital Goods -13 Conglomerates -20 Consumer Discretionary -20 Healthcare -23 Services -23 Technology -29  The P/E Ratios of $S&P 500(.SPX)$ companies have declined to a more realistic/palatable 21% compared to 26% at the beginning of the year and 36% at the start of 2021.Source: Tiger TradeThe P/E ratio of the Nasdaq stocks has also declined relative to converge with the P/E of  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ stocks. Source: Tiger Trade

Apple Down 25%, Meta 65% As Tech Stocks Hit Rough Patch In 2022: 4 Factors That Could Work In Sector's Favor In 2023 Tech stocks just had their annus horribilis. The sell-off in the space was so indiscriminate that most shed billions or millions from their market capitalizations The tech-heavy $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$  has lost almost twice as much as the broader $S&P 500 index(.SPX.US)$, underlining the skewed nature of the market sell-off toward the tech space. The economy did have a part in the tech meltdown, but it alone cannot be squarely blamed. Tech stocks were on an extended run between 2016 and 2021, pushing valuations of many equities to unsustainable levels, Christopher Baggini, global head of equity strategy of JPMorgan Asset & Wealth Management, said in a note. These valuations, according to the analyst, could not be sustained in a higher interest rate environment. The situation got worse with the "complicated dynamics of slowing economic growth, uneven demand, inventory management and gradually improving supply chains," he said. For taking stock of the ravages, we don't have to look past the big techs, which now look like a pale shadow of their old selves. The FAANG stocks, save $Apple(AAPL)$ , are down by much more than the Nasdaq Composite as well as the Nasdaq 100 Index. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  has the worst loss for the year so far in this category, followed by $Netflix(NFLX)$  and $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ . It was against this backdrop that these companies began shifting their focus on operational discipline in a bid to preserve margins. The result: thousands of employees taken off payrolls, cost cuts, projects shelved and unprofitable divisions shut down. Meta for one announced massive layoffs numbering 11,000 in November. When Elon Musk took Twitter private, he planned a three-quarter reduction in payrolls. Despite the extremely attractive valuations, not many analysts agree that a reversal is around the corner. Macroeconomic headwinds could prove to be a pushback for the sector, as circumspect consumers abstain from huge purchases. The Federal Reserve under Jerome Powell has signaled that rate hikes could continue well into 2023, albeit at a slower pace. This has a direct bearing on consumer spending. Inflationary pressure, though abating, still runs high, leaving consumers with less real income to splurge on consumer discretionary items. Tech supply chains still remain constrained amid adverse geopolitical challenges. To make matters worse, competitive pressure is intensifying, hurting revenues. A case in point is TikTok, which has been blamed for part of the weaknesses at most other communication tech companies. Even amid all these dark clouds, there are a few silver linings. 4 Themes Supportive Of Tech Stocks: 1. Potential Easing Of Dollar Strength: Most technology companies, especially big techs, conduct businesses globally and derive a substantial portion of their revenue in local currencies. As the dollar continued to rise against other major currencies amid the Fed's aggressive tightening, it shaved some percentage points off topline growth. Forex volatility is a headwind for big techs, which have 35%-40% revenue exposure to Europe, and a stronger dollar is a 400-basis-point top-line headwind, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said, Axios reported. With the Fed expected to slow down the pace of rate hikes or even pause in the new year, analysts see the greenback weakening in 2023. This should remove one of the overhangs around the tech space. 2. M&A, Consolidation: Valuations of tech companies are below the past five-year averages, Ives said in a recent note. This, the analyst said, could lead to a spate of M&A transactions in the space in 2023. The M&A wave has already begun.  3. Lean, Mean Structures: Industry veterans and analysts blame much of the current predicament on the excesses of tech companies, which bloated their cost structures. From irrational exuberance, companies are now coming to terms with the stark reality, and this has forced them to announce massive layoffs and rethink priorities. Most have begun focusing on a smaller number of high-priority growth areas, JPMorgan analysts said in a recent commentary. The analysts pointed to Amazon's flexibility in pushing first-party versus third-party inventory and its Prime offering, Alphabet's focus on diversifying its revenue streams by developing its non-ad business and Meta leaning toward its AI discovery engine, ad and business platforms as well as its multiyear transition to the metaverse. 4. Supportive Valuations: Big techs alone have lost a combined market cap of $2.5 trillion in 2022, JPMorgan estimates. The oversold levels typically suggest a rebound may be around the corner. This time around, the upcoming year is fraught with risks. Consumer tech companies could face the brunt of negativity as COVID-19 tailwinds abate, energy prices rise in Europe and global economic activity slows, Franklin Templeton said in its 2023 technology sector outlook. Valuations are nearing the point, where they have begun to reflect expectations of below-trend growth continuing into 2023, the firm said. @TigerStars  @CaptainTiger  

I don't think Musk can help the development of Twitter in the end. Even if he successfully acquires Twitter, in the view of many people, it is good news for Musk and Twitter. Indeed, for Musk, entering Twitter can further expand its own business territory and constantly improve its own business ecology; for Twitter, it can temporarily alleviate the embarrassment in the development process with the help of Musk's support. However, it would be too simple and arbitrary to look at Musk's entry into Twitter from such a perspective. Musk once said before buying Twitter that helping Twitter create the next WeChat. However, if you just regard WeChat as a model of Twitter, you don't really realize that Twitter and its social field are being posted. The profound change of life, such as the so-called transformation, may eventually be wishful thinking. Indeed, Twitter needs a transformation. However, the transformation of Twitter should not only copy WeChat, but also start from a higher dimension and more aspects. Only in this way can the transformation of Twitter truly get rid of the previous development model and truly enter a new stage of development. It is certain that if Musk only transforms Twitter according to social logic, or even according to the practice of WeChat, and can't even save Twitter, it will even bring Twitter into a new development dilemma. The specific reasons are as follows: 1) The problem with Twitter is not in itself, but that the whole social industry is facing the problem of Twitter. Therefore, if Musk puts all the plans to transform Twitter on WeChat, such an approach may temporarily alleviate the problems faced by Twitter. However, after such a transformation is completed, Twitter will still face the social industry. However, the problems that will be faced. 2) Musk's acquisition of Twitter is only to expand its business territory to build its own business ecology. Twitter may gain the attention of the capital market after being acquired, but if Twitter itself wants to go long-term and really make a breakthrough, it still needs to fundamentally solve the dilemmas and problems it faces. 3) The reason why Musk bought Twitter is not only about its social value, but also more about its social value beyond its social value. Therefore, just transforming Twitter from a social perspective, just viewing social networking as a way and means of rebirth of Twitter, does not really fundamentally solve Twitter's problems. The above reason is that Twitter is facing difficulties. I think how Musk takes social networking as the starting point to revitalize Twitter and find ways and means to solve the development dilemma of Twitter is the key to ensuring that Twitter can be stable and far-reaching. $Twitter(TWTR)$$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ @TigerStars@MillionaireTiger@Daily_Discussion

FAMMG all fell in Q3 earnings season. Yesterday, top five tech giants evaporated a total market cap of $276.6 billion.1. $Google (GOOG)$ 's earnings report released after the bell on Tuesday, Q3 revenue and profit fell short of expectations, and the stock price fell more than 6% after the bell2. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ revenue growth fell to a 5-year low, shares fell nearly 7% after hours3. After the bell on Wednesday, META also released a less-than-expected Q3 earnings report, and its stock price plunged nearly 25% on Thursday. So far this year, Meta's market capitalization has fallen, evaporating from a high of nearly $1 trillion to $730 billion, leaving a market capitalization of $260 billion 4. After the bell on Thursday, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ announced its third quarter earnings, with revenue missing expectations. The company's guidance for the fourth quarter was also disappointing. After hours, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ shares plunged 12.73%, down 34.88% for the year5. $Apple(AAPL)$ reported a mixed Q4 earnings, and shares closed up 0.35% after hours after earnings.YTD performance of FAAMG; data from tradingviewPIMCO continues to be bearish on U.S. stocks, PIMCO portfolio manager Erin Browne believes that should not be optimistic about the Federal Reserve slowing the pace of interest rate increases:.Over the past week or so, we've been setting our short positions to higher levels. The decline isn't over.Previously, the Bank of America forecast that Due to continued inflation and Fed rate hikes, the room for earnings growth for U.S. listed companies is getting narrower and narrower. The $S&P 500(.SPX)$ may even fall back to near 3,000 points. In addition to the impact of the general environment, the transformation of the giants is also difficult: Meta all in the meta-universe, the original business is also constantly eroded by Tik Tok; Microsoft transformation of the cloud business, but facing challenges. Some people believe that the tech giants are gradually losing their innovative ability. The once-vibrant tech giants are having a bleak winter.Do you think U.S. tech stocks can ever return to the top?Do you think it is a good time to short U.S. stocks/ or add your positions?Join our topic to win tiger coins~[REWARDS]1. All Tigers will be given 50 coins at leastfor posting in the TOPIC page!​2. Tigers will be given extra50-300 coinsrandomly according to the quality and users' interaction of their posts.

UBS downgraded Microsoft to Neutral with price target $250, from previous rating of Buy with price target $300. Short term bearishness in market sentiment presents good opportunityfor longs. Microsoft has strong wide economicmoat, their Office products has high switchingcost and network effect, while Intelligent Cloud segment including Windows Server, SQL Data Base Management System, Azure, Enterprise Services and Visual Studio has a wide moat based on high switching cost, network effectsand cost advantages.$Microsoft(MSFT)$ 

$Walt Disney(DIS)$ dips as it following a miss on top and bottom lines in its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings at after-hours on November 8.Two main factors affect Disney's price, Streaming (mainly Disney +), and parks. The former is more important. Disney has several cable TV businesses, but this utility-like business has little impact on the stock price.Interestingly, in August, the market was surprised by its Park business due to unexpected recovery.This quarter seems to pay it back Revenue was 20.15 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase, which was less than the expected 21.26 billion US dollars; The adjusted EPS was 0.3 US dollars, which was less than the expected 0.51 US dollars; In terms of classification, the revenue of entertainment and media was 12.73 billion US dollars,-4.36% year-on-year, lower than the expected 13.81 billion US dollars; Revenue from theme parks and consumer goods was US $7.43 billion, up 36% year-on-year, which fell short of the expected US $7.59 billion. The total number of streaming media users reached 235 million, up 31% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 233 million. Among them, Disney+164 million, up 39% year-on-year, higher than the market expectation of 162 million. For Segment Cable TV revenue was 6.33 billion US dollars,-2.19% year-on-year, which was less than the expected 6.65 billion US dollars; Operating profit was $1.74 billion, beating expectations of $1.61 billion, DTC's business revenue was US $4.91 billion, up 7.6% year-on-year, less than the expected US $5.37 billion, and its operating profit was-1. 47 billion US dollars, less than the expected US $1.11 billion. The revenue of content authorization and distribution was USD 1.74 billion,-15.2% year-on-year, which was less than the expected USD 2.06 billion, and the operating profit was USD 180 million, which was less than the expected USD 160 million. The revenue of domestic parks was 5.01 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 44.3%, which was less than the market expectation of 5.2 billion US dollars; The revenue of the International Park was 1.07 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 55%, exceeding the market expectation of 1.03 billion US dollars; Consumer goods revenue was US $1.34 billion, up 4.44% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of US $1.31 billion. Apparently, loss in streaming media is too large, and parks business does not meet market expectations.The strong offline recovery made analysts confident about the Park business and raise expectations. Therefore, the 36% year-on-year growth rate of Disneyland business is not low, only the expectation is too high.Inflation makes Disney hard, tickets are not easy to increase, but it is easier for consumer goods to rise in price.The entertainment business also showed a decline trend, among which the performance of cable TV declined, which most investors can imagine was largely due to the slowdown of advertising and the fierce competition of streaming media.Although streaming media users grew better than expected, the total number of users reached 235 million,But the single-quarter loss reached $1.47 billion, almost reaching the peak of DIS's financially acceptable single-quarter loss($1.5 billion). In other words, from next quarter, Disney will consider how to make a profit in streaming.The company is still expected to be profitable by the end of 2024To sum up, market expectation makes Disney's prices. As for fiscal year 2023, it is the performance-realized orented year.

$Twitter(TWTR)$$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$Restructuring is a horrible time for the staff of any company, but it’s also an opportunity to concentrate on what reliably makes money. Elon Musk has made cuts so deep at Twitter Inc. that his team has started asking dozens of workers to return after being laid off last Friday, when about half of them were shown the door. Mark Zuckerberg’s Meta Platforms Inc. is, meanwhile, gearing up to fire thousands of its roughly 87,000 salaried employees on Wednesday, according to the Wall Street Journal, the first time in its history that it has ever carried out mass job cuts. Inflation, fears of recession and a pandemic hiring boom have led to this inflection point for Big Tech, with firms like Stripe Inc. making painful job cuts too. But the cuts at Meta and Twitter are more than an opportunity to bolster their bottom line; it’s a moment to put aside their leaders’ obsessions with new and untested services. Musk and Zuckerberg both run companies with advertising in their DNA, and they should refocus on being good ad businesses if they want to stem their decline — even if their moment of dominance appears to have peaked. Instead, Facebook’s founder is chasing virtual reality and Musk is threatening advertisers who boycott Twitter, as companies including General Motors Co., Microsoft Corp. and Verizon Communications Inc. suspend their ads on the site over concerns of inadequate content moderation. Zuckerberg has invested more than US$10 billion in building a novel business based on virtual reality — the metaverse — that includes a US$1,499 headset that he’s pitching, inexplicably, for office meetings. Musk is selling Twitter’s blue verified badges for $8 and taking them away from anyone who doesn’t pay. Both billionaires are stubbornly chasing ideas that stand little chance of making money at a time when both firms need to pay their bills. Twitter in particular is saddled with US$1 billion in annual interest payments thanks to debt taken on in Musk’s purchase of the company. Musk’s plans to generate the necessary cash don’t make sense. Even if all 400,000 verified badge holders paid the monthly fee, that would still bring in just US$38 million a year. Musk wants to get more users to buy the badge too, but his value proposition is nothing to write home about: You can post longer videos to the site, get ranked higher in threads and see half the normal volume of ads, according to Twitter’s updated page on Apple Inc.’s App Store. Pre-Musk, Twitter’s attempts to make money from a subscription service, known as Twitter Blue, were always small and experimental. That’s because Twitter’s ad business has always been so reliable (and far bigger than US$38 million). The company brought in US$1.2 billion in revenue in the second quarter of 2022, with roughly 90% of that coming from ads. Meta made $28.9 billion in sales in the second quarter, with nearly all of that money coming from ads. It certainly makes sense to try and diversify, as I’ve argued here before. The digital ad business, which grew at a 21% clip in 2021, will likely slow to single digits in the coming years. But Zuckerberg and Musk are pivoting far too quickly and too radically. They’re betting their entire companies on selling products, when social media firms generally do a terrible job selling products. Snap Inc. for instance, has never turned its augmented-reality spectacles into a viable revenue stream. Facebook itself has a string of product failures behind it. The tech industry is entering an age of austerity as several big companies freeze hiring and trim their workforces. You could argue that companies like Twitter needed to be streamlined anyway, and that shifting from flashy novelties like self-driving cars and crypto to building truly useful products is a healthy step in the tech industry’s evolution. After all, the dotcom bust of two decades ago created a brutal market crucible that enabled the likes of Amazon.com Inc. and eBay Inc. to ultimately flourish. But for Twitter and Facebook to stay afloat in this next big storm, their leaders need to untether themselves from new-fangled ideas, and any urges to solidify their legacies as innovators. They should stick with what works for now. Too much hubris could lead them to sink instead. @TigerStars @MillionaireTiger @CaptainTiger

In the first half of Q3, Internet are mostly underperformed, even though the global recession and strong dollar headwinds, as the leader catering,$Starbucks(SBUX)$ has won this summer.In the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2022 ending October 2, Starbucks' revenue and profit beat market consensus. Revenue was 8.41 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, slightly exceeding the market expectation of 8.32 billion US dollars; Overall same-store sales increased by 7% year-on-year, exceeding the market expectation of 4.1%; Among them, the growth rate of North America, which contributed the most, recovered to double-digit 11%, exceeding the market expectation of 7.6%, while the international region fell by 5% and the Chinese market fell by 16%; Earnings before interest and tax fell 20% year-on-year to $1.273 billion, but it was still higher than the consensus of $1.188 billion. Source: Starbucks Financial ReportsFirst of all, in terms of profit margin, the market expectation is relatively low, because it can be seen that the profit margin of stores this year is under great pressure from the rising wages of employees, new training and the rising costs of supply chain, food and materials. Moreover, after Schultz took the helm again, he spent the money originally used for repurchase on improving Starbucks stores and investing in employees, which can be said to attach great importance to operations.Schultz is really a lucky star of Starbucks. He founded and brought Starbucks up, and urged the development of the Chinese market, and achieved unprecedented success. After the epidemic, he once again took the helm as CEO. In these quarters, he successfully pulled back the store sales again.We can see that the same-store sales in North America this quarter were +11%, among which the amount of single-ticket transactions increased by 10%, indicating that the company also transmitted the price influence to the downstream, and the high-price strategy was successful.Orange: Globalwide, Yellow: America, Green: China , Data Source: Starbucks Financial ReportsSchultz will step down as CEO again in April next year. I wonder what kind of surprise the CEO of Durex's parent company, Lijie, will bring to Starbucks.Secondly, the performance of China, although continuing to decline this quarter, is much better than the 44% decline in the previous quarter. The average transaction price has not continued to decline. Because the growth base in the same quarter last year was relatively high, on average, it also rebounded to some extent in the past two years. However, facing the competition of many domestic tea brands, Starbucks still lacks certain innovation ability.Data Source: Starbucks Financial ReportsIn the following winter, it has a slight advantage over coffee brands. I wonder if Starbucks can seize this opportunity and further restore the Chinese market.

FOMC December meeting is the last interest rate increasing this year, the probabilities of 50 basis points and 75 basis points are similar. Dove or Hawk will decide the market direction.Anyway, The most important factor is CPI.The September CPI data has beat expectations, even energy factors weakened. However, the original high base in October should theoretically drive the next one down.Data from Bloomberg.comThe median value of market expectation is 7.9%, with the highest value 8.1%, lower than the 8.2% in September.However, it coincides with the integer mark of 8%. Investors are nervous. If it is still above 8% in the end, the market will naturally feel bad.Personally, I think the probability of exceeding market expectations is higher, and the most important reason is the cost of "Shelter". According to the data in August, the weight of shelter in CPI has reached 32%, of which rent accounts for 24%, way more higer than food and energy.Data from Bloomberg.comAccording to the recent trend, the year-on-year growth rate of residence may reach 6.8%, and the contribution of this weight item will be the highest in recent years.Let's see, If CPI beat 8%, exceeding market expectations. US bond yields rose, and the stock market fell; CPI missed expectations, confirming that "the point has passed", with US bond yields falling and stock markets rising. In the case of possible large fluctuations, it is better to use cross option strategy to participate, as I mentioned last time. Just in time for the mid-term election results, the market volatility may be even greater.$Invesco QQQ Trust(QQQ)$ is more volatile than $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$, so QQQ's IV is higher, but the option liquidity of both is quite good.Let's try two trading ideas.Fast-pace: Choose Lastday-options.That is to say, buy Call and Put due on November 11th at the same time, preferably based on the actual point before you place an order, and buy and sell CALL and PUT at the same price at the same time.Slow pace: Choose options for the next week or two.For example, buy CALL and PUT due on November 18th at the same time.When to close?Unless the result of CPI is too surprised, it is generally difficult to have continuous fluctuations after a large jump. When closing positions, you can choose different times to close positionsCALL and PUT.For example, CPI is not as expected, the index rises sharply, and CALL makes money, so it can be leveled first. When the market calms down, it still needs to digest the part of raising interest rates. If the index falls back, it can close the PUT again.Of course, the safest way is to close the whole span combination at the same time, to avoid risks!Happy Trading!

Still learning...

$US2Y(US2Y.BOND)$ is very sensitive to fed interest rate and is forward looking. it is pricing in the possibility of 4.5% and is still pushing higher.  $Apple(AAPL)$ and gang are very sensitive to fed rate hikes, once rates are above 0.5% the stocks have retreated from their peaks.  $S&P 500(.SPX)$ trend can be forecasted by ftse100. traditionally, ftse100 is a leading indicator of spx. gbpusd is the leading indicator of ftse100. below shows the charts of ftse100 compared to gbpusd and spx compared to ftse100.  for ftse100 to rally, gbpusd has to break the downward trend. for that to happen, fed interest rate has to retreat. since, on nov 2 is fed meeting and 75 bps is almost a done deal, gbpusd will continue downward trend and so does spx. and since aapl and gang are sensitive to interest rate hikes, they will continue to trend down too. remember to apply automatic investment system, it's time to lock in profits or cut your position so as to have enough capital to buy the next dip.  bon courage

Another tech plunge, another shot in the arm for stock quants mounting a big comeback in Wall Street’s awful year. As the Federal Reserve ramped up its hawkish policy guidance this week on still-raging inflation, the once-booming Faang megapcaps lost a further US$568 billion in market value, bringing the cohort’s total capitalization to the lowest since mid-2020. With rising interest rates spurring an abrupt end to the leadership of Big Tech, the largest technology companies are wielding less and less power over broader indexes, as former high-fliers like Meta Platforms Inc. and Amazon.com Inc. crash anew in the latest wave of selling. Reversing the extremes of the cheap-money years, the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 hit the lowest versus an equal-weighted version of the benchmark since 2019. All this is a boon for so-called factor investors, who dissect equities according to their math-derived traits, from how cheap equities look to how fast they’ve risen. These funds are typically underweight the tech megacaps and have a propensity to spread out their exposures, a favorable setup in this era of improved market breadth. In 11 of the last 13 sessions where the S&P 500 has dropped more than 2%, strategies beloved by factor funds like value, quality, momentum and low volatility have all made money, according to Dow Jones’ market-neutral indexes. “You got a much more diverse opportunity set that allows for more factors to come into play,” said Sean Phayre, head of quantitative investments at Abrdn Investment Management. “Previously 2019, 2020 was a very one-dimensional market.” Systematic managers who deploy factor strategies in one form or another are on a winning streak. The AQR Equity Market Neutral Fund has rallied anew since October to notch a 21% gain so far this year. The Jupiter Merian Global Equity Absolute Return Fund, which bled assets throughout the tech bull run, is up nearly 7%. The math whizzes of Wall Street crunch data to find patterns across the entire stock market. That means they’re mostly spreading out their wagers across a vast number of securities. So when market gains are concentrated in a few megacaps, quants almost by definition will own far less of those shares than a cheap-and-cheerful S&P 500 tracker. That was the case in the low-rate years when the Faang block -- -- Facebook Inc., now known as Meta, Apple Inc., Amazon, Netflix Inc. and Google parent Alphabet Inc. -- drove the bull market. Now a broader group of winners is giving money managers more opportunities. In a reversal of pre-2021 trends, the S&P 500 pulled off an around-8% surge in October even with half of the Faangs falling. Lately, the momentum factor, a popular quant trade, has also joined the party. A chameleon investing style that simply bets on the past year’s winners, it doesn’t do well at turning points like the start of 2022. But having rebalanced into outperformers like health-care and energy stocks, the strategy has rallied this quarter in a sign of persistent trends driven by sticky inflation. The US$12 billion iShares MSCI USA Momentum Factor ETF (ticker MTUM) drew a record US$2 billion in inflows last month after its 13% surge beat the wider market by the most in its nine-year history. A market-neutral version compiled by Bloomberg is on track for the best year since 2015. “Momentum is the all-weather strategy,” Christopher Harvey, head of equity strategy at Wells Fargo, wrote in a note. He expects more market damage caused by inflation and jobs data, touting momentum strategies as “they have a tendency to perform well” in stressed conditions. Meanwhile, 87% of high-momentum firms have beaten earnings expectations this season, compared to 70% of the S&P 500, per Harvey. These winning names are also getting rewarded more for good results and punished less for bad ones. The value strategy of buying cheap shares has also seen another bump with rising rates driving investors away from stocks with high multiples. Meanwhile the low-volatility trade is shining as steadier stocks like health-care names win out. These trends have only intensified lately with American heavyweights like Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft posting disappointing earnings -- a big turnaround compared to the unbridled tech optimism of the low-rate era. “The single dimension that was driving those names to excess returns -- that model is somewhat broken,” said Phayre at Abrdn. “Come 2021, 2022 there’s a realization there’s going to be some form of payback for all the cheap money.”

Microsoft’s $69 billion Activision buyout is facing heightened scrutiny from regulators, the case has been pending for almost one year. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Activision Blizzard(ATVI)$Many investors may forget it. we shall see the impatience on ATVI stock price.Microsoft's bid price is $95 per share, and the last price is $71.1, with a discount of 25%.Microsoft — which has enjoyed a better relationship with regulators in recent years compared to rivals like Meta and Google — likely did not expect this level of scrutiny from authorities. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$The issue are the promises — or lack thereof — that Microsoft is offering antitrust regulators and gaming rivals like PlayStation maker Sony, which has loudly opposed the deal. $Sony(SONY)$Microsoft gaming CEO Phil Spencer has publicly said that the company plans to continue releasing Activision’s popular “Call of Duty” series on PlayStation, as well as potentially bring it to other consoles such as the Nintendo Switch.Worth investing?Microsoft is now facing the issue from European Commission, UK’s Competition and Markets Authority or American Federal Trade Commission, if one of them squashed the deal, Microsoft will have to pay Activision a $3 billion break-up feeIf success, the acquisition is a good arbitrage opportunity, equivalent to 33.6% profit. Previously, Microsoft expected to complete the transaction before June 2023, so that the annualized return would be even higher.But how to trade with the uncertainty?Options would help.Buy PUT (ATVI)Completing in June 2023, means we could buy PUT due in June 2023, the current price is $8.2.If in the next six months, ATVI's share price plunges, PUT can offer a protection.Sell CALL (ATVI)Covered Calls can also hedge downside risks within a certain range, only not large downside risk.For example, while buying a stock, sell the $80 Call due in June 2023, and the current price is $6. Breakeven price is $65.42, max profit is $1,458.You also can choose higher or lower exercise prices.These are the simplest.Of course, you can choose advanced strategies, such as naked selling put (below 95), naked selling call (above 95), collars, etc., which can reasonably control the profit-loss ratio.In the next six months, ATVI's stock price changes are mainly determined according to the news of major regulators, so sudden jumps and plunges will occur.Happy Trading!

FAANG/MAANG stocks have dipped significantly due to underwhelming Q3 earnings, continual rate hikes, & non-dovish speeches after the November rate announcement yesterday😨🥵 September Effect & Black October may be coming to an end & share prices typically rise🌱🌱🌱 after elections. We could be nearing market bottom🪨🪨🪨, IF 🇺🇸 doesn't go into a true recession. Next CPI data will be closely watched👀 by investors. Stocks typically rise before ex-dividend as investors rush in. However, 🍎 $Apple(AAPL)$ is surprisely down more than 3% today even after beating Q3 estimates recently, suggesting that investors' POV are bearish & are wanting to secure profits before the ex-dividend dip tomorrow (4/11). 🍎 broke 2 support levels today & may reach its 1-month & 13-week low of 134.37 tomorrow when it trades ex-dividend.  🔎 $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ As usual-🤔💭 Consider POV & Actions of investors + 👩🏻‍💻👨🏻‍💻 Research + 🗑FOMO & Greed = Investing Wisely 🤓🤗 + Accumulating Wealth 💵💰 Source Website: Bar-chart @TigerStars@CaptainTiger@MillionaireTiger

Two SaaS stocks, soaring before 2022 has plunged after their Q3 earnings after close on November 3.$Twilio(TWLO)$And$Cloudflare, Inc.(NET)$As luck would have it, Q3 outperformed market expectations, and there was only one reason for the plunge: a drop in guidance caused by weak demand.TWLO fell even more after hours, reaching 20%, while its Q3 performance was not weak. Revenue was 983 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 33%, exceeding the market expectation of 908 million US dollars; There were 280,000 active customers, a year-on-year increase of 12%, which was basically the same as market expectations The net dollar retention rate was 122%, which was lower than the market expectation of 124% GAAP's EPS was-$2.63, lower than expected-$2.07. For NET, the growth rate is still higher The overall revenue was US $253 million, a year-on-year increase of 47%, exceeding the market expectation of US $251 million There were 156,000 active customers, an increase of 18% year-on-year, which was basically the same as market expectations The net dollar retention rate was 124%, which was lower than the market expectation of 126% The adjusted EBITDA was US $22.13 million, up 15% year-on-year, lower than the market expectation of US $25.85 million. The Q3 results of the two companies are almost identical, and both of them are Revenue and active customer growth slowed down; The retention rate remains high, but slightly lower than market expectations; Profit levels are picking up, but slightly less than expected. Among them, the retention rate is slightly lower than the market expectation, which is also an important reason for the two companies to lower their quarterly performance guidelines, TWLO's Q4 revenue is expected to be between 995 million and 1.005 billion US dollars, while the market is expected to be 1.07 billion US dollars; The adjusted EPS is-0.06 to-0.11 USD, and the market expectation is-0.12 USD. NET's Q4 revenue guide is 273-274 million US dollars, and the market expectation is 2.737 US dollars. The adjusted EPS is 0.04-0.05 US dollars, and the market expectation is 0.02 US dollars. NET's performance is expected to be relatively stronger, so after-hours, it did not fall as much as TWLO.Almost all companies in the cloud industry have failed this quarter, even those of large cloud service enterprises$Microsoft(MSFT)$And$Amazon.com(AMZN)$It has not been spared from the decline in growth rate, and$Alphabet(GOOG)$Although cloud still maintains a growth rate of more than 30% this quarter, the next expectation is not very ideal.Many people may judge the current economic situation by fresh macro data, but many of these data are lagging behind.On the contrary, the current situation of cloud service industry is an indicator ahead of the real economy, which represents the strength of service industry demand. Generally, in the expectation of economic recession, enterprises are more cautious about budget expenditure.Investors need to continue to pay attention to the SaaS industry leaders who will announce their financial reports in the future$Snowflake(SNOW)$Financial report.

Focus on Tech with Solid Fundamentals Mega tech stocks such as $Microsoft(MSFT)$, $Alphabet(GOOG)$, $Amazon.com(AMZN)$have been obliterated as their latest earnings or forecasts missed expectations, leading to many investors offloading these mega tech stocks. This is further exacerbated by the hawkish Fed as they continue their aggressive quest to curb inflation. With these mega tech stocks so beaten down from their highs, many would start wondering if there is indeed a buying opportunity or it is time to flee from tech. With prices plummeting and fears of rising interest rates impacting valuations, investing in tech stocks seems like catching a falling knife. While not all tech stocks will recover, it is imperative not to overlook mega techs that are profitable have strong balance sheets and continue to enjoy a strong operating cash flow supported by sustainable and diversified revenue streams. Macroeconomic headwinds such as weakening consumer demand, strong US dollar are inevitable as part of the usual economic lifecycle. However, most mega tech companies are seasoned and experienced in being becoming more strategic to remain profitable. For example, Microsoft, Apple and Google are freezing hiring to manage operating expenses and maintain their profit margins in anticipation of slowing demand. Although high quality tech companies may appear much cheaper than a year ago, one must be cognisant that the macroeconomic headwinds are not over. Earnings of these tech companies are projected to fall and there may be more short-term corrections in the coming quarters. However, some of these names can still be great buys when considering their underlying fundamentals and how tech continues to play an important role in our daily personal and work lives. Don’t be quick to rule out the mega tech yet. Perhaps they can provide an opportunity for potential upside that you can capitalise. Proceed with caution and all the best in your investment journey! @Venus_M @DiAngel @RDPD富爸穷爸 @MHh @pete13 @HelenJanet @SPOT_ON @Bonta @Boo2020 @koolgal @Big Cat @Bellabing @EKT @SR050321 @VivianChua @Wayneqq @wywy @WYCKOFFPRO @Jaydenkho @Furore @AliceSam @TinyTiger @LMSunshine @TigerStars @TigerStars @Tiger_chat @MillionaireTiger @TigerEvents  

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ released Q3 earnings with an expected plunge. The big-data technology company, who specialized in intelligence and data analysis, even work forthe Pentagon, was once favored by investors, but now, it is being punished.Several key data has decelered it's growth. Q3 revenue was 478 million US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22%, slightly higher than the market expectation of 475 million US dollars; Short-term deferred unrealized income change was-33. 23%, which declined for three consecutive quarters and is expected to be +18%; The remaining performance obligations were USD 1.3 billion, up 49% year-on-year. The number of customers was 132, which was lower than the expected 324 and 203 in the same period last year. By segments, government revenue has always been relatively stable, and the challenges mainly come from the commercial sector, which has basically not increased since Q2 this year. Obviously, the commecial demand is limited.With the increasing pressure of recession, the impact on Palantir's performance has become the focus of investors' attention.Even with Ukraines crisis and mid-term elections, Palantir's performance can't be further improved. But The decrease in demand at the enterprise has alse affected PLTR's deferred revenue. Citi has added it expects "further downside" next year.Some investors believe that PLTR will benefit from the global economic recession, because there may be more customers prepared in advance, and PLTR's current balance sheet is relatively healthy, with $2.4 billion in cash and no debt.Palantir is likely to fall short of its 30% annual revenue growth target, as it expects fourth-quarter sales to be between $503M and $505M, below the estimates of $505.9M. It also expects adjusted operating profit to be between $78M and $80M.

$NVDA so, if you believe you will see 3200 on S&P 500 then sell this if you believe otherwise it still is a great company to own here at a decent discount. Remember shorting this while market moves up is a poor risk management IMO…Marvell, Tesla, Amazon etc all up. Soon Nvidia will be up too. Buying a few shares here. still keeping my long position tho.$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$

Daily market update  The S&P 500 rose Tuesday after another report signaled that inflation could be slowing. The broad market index advanced 0.6%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.2%. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat. Earlier in the day it rose as much as 450 points. Major indexes traded off their highs, with the Dow and S&P briefly dipping into the red, after crude oil prices moved higher suddenly. Oil prices later eased from those highs, with West Texas Intermediate futures last up 1.2% at $86.90 per barrel. The major averages initially rallied after the producer price index, a measure of wholesale inflation, showed a 0.2% increase for the month of October, versus the consensus estimate for a 0.4% increase from Dow Jones. The report comes after last week’s consumer price index data showed signs of inflationary pressure abating last month, sparking a sharp rally. “The PPI read certainly adds more fuel to the fire for those who feel we may finally be on a downward inflation trend,” said Mike Loewengart, head of model portfolio construction at Morgan Stanley’s Global Investment Office. “The market embraced last week’s consumer downtick and today’s initial reaction seems to be more of the same.” The peak-inflation narrative is gaining traction, but the bar for a Fed pivot is still high, said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird. “There will be trepidation at the central bank given their credibility concerns and desire to avoid the mistakes of the 1970s (i.e., stop and start policy that prolonged the inflationary spell),” he said. “But the crumbs are already being laid for a deceleration in pace of tightening heading into 2023.”