FOMC Meets Expectations, Risk Event Priced In, Driving Market Rally
Wednesday's FOMC meeting largely aligned with our expectations from yesterday. Wednesday Focus: FOMC Would be Neutral But Equity Remain ExpensiveThe dot plot essentially built upon the December projections while incorporating recent macroeconomic trends, and Powell’s key message was to "continue monitoring policy developments." With this risk event now settled, the $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ retreated to 20, helping to lift the market.Let’s see the Wallstreet’s views on Fed’s Dovish Message first:$JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ : Rate unchanged, future moves depend on next three months.$Goldman Sachs(GS)$
Zero-day expiration (0DTE) options, also known as same-day expiration options, are options contracts that expire on the same day they are traded. This concept has been expanded: options expiring that week can also be counted as 0DTE.Most time I traded 0DTE, they ended up with losses. As 0DTE options are extremely speculative and come with a high level of risk. The short expiration period means these options are very sensitive to short-term price fluctuations.For example, when I buy OTM 0DTE options. I bet on stock to rise above or dip above the current price. It's cheap, meaning hard to achieve. However, if the stock rises or dips significantly, the 0DTE options may bring over 1000% gains.Therefore, its advantage is 0DTE options can offer the potential for rapid and substantial profits if
When will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ plunge in convergence?A conclusion: when the SPX has been falling for close to a month (30 days or so), the "momentum" of the VIX decreases dramatically, and if the market does not have an "extreme selloff" (e.g., a meltdown) or if the market does not expect a selloff (implied volatility is extremely high), the VIX could fall in tandem with the SPX.Why would such a scenario occur?Composition of the VIX IndexThe VIX Index is compiled by $Cboe Global Markets, Inc(CBOE)$ to reflect the market's expectation of volatility over the next 30 days through the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500 Ind
After recognizing the mistake and previously being bullish on gold, its price has continued to rise with little resistance, recently surpassing the $3,000 milestone. With this milestone achieved, investors are concerned about how far this gold bull market can go and whether a correction or reversal might occur soon. This outlook explores these questions briefly.Firstly, regarding the bullish target, we previously discussed that once the triangular formation ended, new upside potential opened up, with the target for a bullish rally pointing towards the $3,300 resistance area. Based on current prices, there's roughly a 10% upside potential left in the medium term. Considering gold's historical volatility and its low points at the beginning of the year, this target aligns with past patterns.
HSI Above 24,000 with Rising Volume, RSI Signals Pullback Risk
The $HSI(HSI)$ has recently consolidated around the 24,000 mark. Today, we will conduct a basic technical analysis of the HSI using a weekly chart combined with indicators such as the Moving Average (MA), Bollinger Bands, trading volume, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to assess market sentiment.Data as of March 20 2025Summary:Market Sentiment: The current market sentiment appears to be relatively optimistic, as the index has broken through the 24,000 mark accompanied by an increase in trading volume.Potential Risks: The RSI is approaching the overbought area, and the price is near the upper band of the Bollinger Bands, which may indicate a potential risk of a short-term pullback.Strategy Recommendations: Considering the upward momentum of th
$ST Engineering(S63.SI)$ ST Engineering (S63) continues to exhibit robust financial performance, marked by consistent growth in revenue and net profit. The company's strategic initiatives, particularly within its Commercial Aerospace sector, are driving positive results. Financial Highlights and Strategic Developments: * ST Engineering has shown healthy year-on-year growth in its 1H 2024 results, demonstrating the strength of its diversified business model. * The company is actively optimizing its aerospace operations, as evidenced by its capacity transition plan in the U.S. This strategic move involves consolidating its airframe MRO operations to enhance efficiency and streamline its network. This includes
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $TSLA VERTICAL 250328 CALL 245.0/CALL 255.0$ No news is good news they say. It has been downhill since the high of $488. I am short again from last night. Let's look at recent activity by Cathie Wood and insider sales. ARKK ETFs Date: Ongoing, with notable net sales since Q3 2024 Details: Net sales of ~900,000 shares across ARK ETFs since Q3 2024 earnings (October 2024), per X posts and commentary. Specific March 2025 sales aren’t detailed daily, but Tesla has been a frequent rebalancing target. Insider Sales of Tesla Stock as of March 20, 2025 Recent Insider Sales
Establishing a Basic Understanding of Selling Call Options
1. Understanding the Concept of Selling Call OptionsFor those unfamiliar with options, selling options might seem confusing. Common questions include: "How can I sell an option if I don’t own any?" or "What’s the point of selling an option?" To help clarify this concept, let's use a real-life example of selling a used car.Used Car Sale AnalogyImagine you own a used car currently valued at 20,000 yuan. You believe its price won’t significantly increase in the next few months. So, you decide to sell a call option on the car.Buyer (Friend B): Your friend B wants to buy your car but doesn’t have enough money right now. He wants the option to buy it at 20,000 yuan within the next three months.Seller (You): You agree to grant Friend B this right by selling a call option. In return, you collect 1
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ The gap has been filled, and there might be a spot for a bounce.And the hourly chart of the most hated stock in the market is telling us something, BREAKING OUTImageSome other news of $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says to "buy Tesla, $TSLA. It is unbelievable that this guy's stock is this cheap." $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ energy generation and storage segment is now a $10 Billion annual businessHowever,Is $TSLA a fraud?Image
$HSI(HSI)$$HSI retail bears fortified positions & formed large clusters above. Watch 24736 & 24554 must hold. A push north past 24926 hits 25054/25150. Bear clusters vulnerable. Note resistance very stiff. $HSI may not hold above 25k.
$Alibaba(BABA)$Alibaba stands to benefit from China’s policy support and growing AI integration. Improved consumer sentiment and cost efficiency could drive earnings recovery. If revenue growth accelerates and regulatory pressure eases, $170 is achievable. Key risks include geopolitical tension and macro weakness. My view: bullish with a target of $160–$170 if fundamentals improve.
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$Meta’s 20-day surge reflects strong AI-driven ad growth and efficiency gains. Rising engagement and Reels monetization add momentum. Valuation is getting stretched, but AI investments could fuel further upside. A pullback to key support levels might offer a better entry. Watch for volume and earnings guidance to confirm trend strength.
$Alibaba(BABA)$Alibaba’s rally reflects optimism around AI integration and Beijing’s pro-growth measures. Strength in e-commerce and cloud segments supports earnings recovery. However, regulatory uncertainty and global slowdown risks remain headwinds. If AI monetization accelerates and policy support holds, $170 looks achievable. Watch for volume and margin improvements as key signals.
$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$TIGR’s 20% surge reflects improving market sentiment and stronger-than-expected earnings. With expanding user growth in Asia and increasing trading volumes, the momentum looks sustainable. Regulatory clarity and new product offerings could further drive upside. My price target for this year is $7–$8, assuming continued revenue growth and cost efficiency. Key risks include market volatility and regulatory changes. Bullish unless macro headwinds intensify.
$POP MART(09992)$Pop Mart’s new high reflects strong demand for collectible toys, especially Molly and Labubu. Gen Z’s growing interest in designer toys and limited editions fuels this momentum. Expanding global presence and successful IP collaborations are key growth drivers. If consumer spending stays strong, Pop Mart could break further highs. My view remains bullish, but watch for potential slowdown in discretionary spending.
Bitcoin’s recent drop raises questions about market direction. Profit-taking, regulatory uncertainty, and macro pressures could weigh on sentiment. However, institutional interest and upcoming halving events may support a rebound. If BTC holds above key support levels, a recovery is likely — otherwise, deeper correction could follow. My stance: cautiously optimistic, watching for confirmation of a reversal.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$Tesla’s approval for California operations boosts investor confidence. Improved regulatory outlook and potential production ramp-up could drive earnings recovery. If margins stabilize and EV demand holds, the stock may have found a floor. Key levels to watch: $180–$190 for confirmation of a bottom. My view: constructive if delivery and cost trends improve.