To The Moon

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold on the H1 timeframe is currently finding short-term support in the 3970–3975 range and is undergoing a corrective consolidation phase following an oversold condition. Price: The latest price is 3988. Based on current performance, the price has reached a high of 40086 and a low of 3970.80, 3,970–3,975 is the critical support level for the current uptrend Candlestick Patterns: Following a series of sharp declines marked by large bearish candles, the most recent H1 candlesticks have alternated between red and green, forming doji and small-bodied patterns with relatively long lower shadows. This indicates that s

1 Gold (XAU/USD) has shown an overall weak trend today, maintaining a pattern of weak consolidation and selling on rallies. Pressured by recent oil price rebounds that have sparked inflation concerns (reigniting expectations of high interest rates), the gold price is currently in a wide-range downward channel. $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ The intraday low has been updated to 4024. Although prices have rebounded slightly, they remain under pressure at the absolute bottom of the downtrend channel. Step-like downward consolidation: After encountering resistance in the 4060 area, gold prices formed a very standard “decline–sideways consolidation–further decline” step-like bearish pattern, with the lower boundary of each consolidation

1 Technical Analysis: Gold is currently showing a clear sideways-downward trend with a bearish formation. For ultra-short-term trading, the strategy should focus on selling on rallies (Short), while closely monitoring the resistance zone between 4040 and 4043. It is highly likely that prices will follow the downward trend in shorter time frames and retest the key support zone at the H4 level, 3996–4010. Currently, the market is in the early stages of a rebound ending and a return to the downtrend. Continue to focus on sell trades! Strategy: Sell: 4038–40 TP: 4010 SL: 4056 2 Gold prices saw a slight correction during Asian trading hours on Wednesday (July 15), currently trading around $4035 per ounce. Spot gold fell to its lowest level since July 1st yesterday, reaching $3983 per ounce, wit

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a weak, range-bound pattern in the short to medium term. Trading is expected to remain largely range-bound at lower levels when the market opens next Monday; watch for a breakout from the 4100–4150 range! $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ H1 Chart: After a short-term rebound, prices have pulled back again and are fluctuating around the 4115–4150 range. The candlestick bodies and wicks indicate a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, while the red MA shows signs of flattening. The MACD has shown a slight golden cross or divergence signal, suggesting that short-term rebound momentum is limited and prices are likely to fl

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Key News-Driven Factors (Mixed Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, with Bears Slightly in the Lead) ： $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ 1. Bearish: The Fed’s monetary policy remains generally hawkish. Situation: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have previously raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts for 2026. Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in July, the market is still pricing in the expectation of another rate hike in the future (e.g., in September). High real interest rates resulting from a high-interest-rate environment, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index, are currently the pr

Impact of Core Fundamentals (News): $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Bullish Factors: Weak labor market data has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, while continued gold purchases by global central banks as part of their reserve diversification efforts provide long-term strategic support for gold prices. Weakening Short-Term Catalysts: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (such as shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Doha negotiations) have recently shown some marginal easing or a resumption of shipping, causing the geopolitical premium previously factored into prices to diminish somewhat. Intraday Focus: As market liquidity wa

Technical Chart Patterns:$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Signs of a bullish breakout in gold are becoming increasingly clear. The candlestick chart shows a distinct V-shaped reversal combined with a stair-step rally accompanied by increasing volume! Following a surge triggered by positive economic data, the gold price instantly rose above the key psychological level of $4,100 and is currently testing the $4,200 level. Indicator Status: On the H1 timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening dramatically in an upward trend. The candlesticks are trading right along the upper band. The MACD is rapidly diverging above the zero line, with the red mome

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$Fed Policy Pressure (Bearish): The Federal Reserve has recently sent hawkish signals suggesting it may further tighten monetary policy this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s determination to bring inflation down to the 2% target, which pushed up real U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, which held steady above 101), causing gold—a non-interest-bearing asset—to suffer a sharp decline throughout June. Easing Geopolitical Tensions (Bearish): The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement and are moving forward with the Doha talks. The “safe-haven premium” driven by the Middle East geopolitical crisis has recently faded significantly, weakening safe-h

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra

$S&P 500(.SPX)$Technical Analysis: Gold is currently maintaining its accelerated downward trend following the breakout. Previous Price Action: After a volatile rebound, the price encountered resistance at the upper boundary (around the 4538.60–4555.40 zone) and subsequently entered a downtrend channel characterized by progressively lower highs and lower lows. It has now broken through several local support lows within the previous consolidation range (around 4454.60), with the current price quoted at 4438. This breakout pattern indicates that bearish momentum is accelerating! Expected Movement: The price is expected to continue its downward trajectory—either directly or following a minor, weak correction—to test support levels.

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Gold opened slightly lower on Monday, June 1, 2026, falling as much as 0.48% to around $4,518 per ounce, as market sentiment briefly cooled. The previous weekend's lack of a clear breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, coupled with the continued advance of Israeli troops into southern Lebanon, further exacerbated international concerns about the Middle East situation spiraling out of control. Meanwhile, US crude oil opened nearly 2% higher, surging over 3% to above $90 per barrel at one point. The rebound in energy prices directly boosted inflation expectations and strengthened the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even raise them, becoming the main reason for the short-term pressure on gold

Six Key Data Points Trigger "Terrifying Volatility," How Will the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Determine the Fate of Gold and Silver?$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ Gold and silver will face a crucial test in the coming week, with investors focusing on the health of the US economy and labor market. In the next few trading days, the US will release a series of important economic data, which could significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path and further affect precious metal price movements. This week, gold and silver prices were supported by uncertainty surrounding the US economic growth outlook and expectations of changes in the interest rate path. Gold continued to benefit from safe-haven demand and t

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$Gold prices stabilized around $4,500 on Friday (May 29), following a rebound from the previous trading session. Reports of an initial agreement between the U.S. and Iran eased market concerns over inflation and interest rate outlooks. Technical Analysis: After a sharp V-shaped rebound from a deep decline, gold found support at the bottom (around 4368–4372) and launched a powerful technical recovery. Moving average divergence correction: Following a rapid surge to approximately 4511.88, prices clearly diverged from the moving averages (MA). The current phase features sideways consolidation or slight pullback at higher levels—a typical adjustment in both time and space after a steep rally. Strong resista

On May 28, 2026, gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating around $4,373, exhibiting a clear short-term accelerated decline. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ Technical Analysis: 1. Clear Bearish Pattern and Breakout From the candlestick chart you provided (with moving average indicators), we can see: Accelerated Breakout: Gold prices previously traded in a narrow rectangular range around $4,500 for a period. However, recently, the candlestick broke through the previous key support level and broke through the psychological level of $4,400 with consecutive large bearish candlesticks. Moving Average Resistance: The red moving averages (MA) in the cha

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ The market action was a rollercoaster ride, catching many investors by surprise! On the H1 chart, gold formed a typical “second dip” followed by a failed “W-bottom” (double bottom) pattern, resulting in a pullback within a trading range. This pattern has not yet confirmed a reversal; instead, it has evolved into a pullback from resistance within a low-range trading band (4510–4585). As short-term bullish momentum has faded and bears have regained the upper hand, prices are now seeking support near the cluster of moving averages or the secondary support level around $4,510. In the upcoming New York session, the pr

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Technical Analysis: Gold's short-term bearish momentum has strengthened. The MACD indicator has entered below the zero line, indicating a bearish short-term market sentiment, while the RSI indicator continues to decline, suggesting weakening bullish buying pressure. Gold has successfully broken below 4500 and is currently undergoing a technical rebound. The key resistance level for the day is at $4565-70. Further declines are expected today, so a sell-only strategy is recommended.$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Strategy: Sell: $4554-58 TP: $4515-4510 SL: $4570 (Adjust accordi

$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$Gold prices fluctuated and fell slightly for the second consecutive trading day, closing down about 0.56% at $4,688.71 per ounce on Wednesday (May 13). The US producer price index (PPI) rose by the largest amount since early 2022 in April, coupled with escalating consumer inflation, essentially shattering market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut this year and even starting to price in a possible rate hike next year. India raised its gold import tariff from 6% to 15%, further dampening demand. A stronger dollar, rising US Treasury yields, and the stock market's ability to attract funds all contributed to

Gold prices reversed course and rose on Monday (May 11), ultimately closing higher as investors closely watched developments in US-Iran diplomacy and awaited key US inflation data later this week. Spot gold closed at $4734.73 on Monday, up 0.41% on the day, after earlier plunging more than 1%. What happened to gold prices?$Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ During Asian trading on Monday, spot gold prices initially fell to a low of $4647.88 per ounce due to rising oil prices following weekend news of renewed tensions between the US and Iran. However, gold prices subsequently rebounded during European and American trading sessions, briefly approaching $4750 per ounce. US President Trump's latest statement that the ceasefire agreement wit

Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Gold on the H1 timeframe is currently finding short-term support in the 3970–3975 range and is undergoing a corrective consolidation phase following an oversold condition. Price: The latest price is 3988. Based on current performance, the price has reached a high of 40086 and a low of 3970.80, 3,970–3,975 is the critical support level for the current uptrend Candlestick Patterns: Following a series of sharp declines marked by large bearish candles, the most recent H1 candlesticks have alternated between red and green, forming doji and small-bodied patterns with relatively long lower shadows. This indicates that s

1 Gold (XAU/USD) has shown an overall weak trend today, maintaining a pattern of weak consolidation and selling on rallies. Pressured by recent oil price rebounds that have sparked inflation concerns (reigniting expectations of high interest rates), the gold price is currently in a wide-range downward channel. $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ The intraday low has been updated to 4024. Although prices have rebounded slightly, they remain under pressure at the absolute bottom of the downtrend channel. Step-like downward consolidation: After encountering resistance in the 4060 area, gold prices formed a very standard “decline–sideways consolidation–further decline” step-like bearish pattern, with the lower boundary of each consolidation

1 Technical Analysis: Gold is currently showing a clear sideways-downward trend with a bearish formation. For ultra-short-term trading, the strategy should focus on selling on rallies (Short), while closely monitoring the resistance zone between 4040 and 4043. It is highly likely that prices will follow the downward trend in shorter time frames and retest the key support zone at the H4 level, 3996–4010. Currently, the market is in the early stages of a rebound ending and a return to the downtrend. Continue to focus on sell trades! Strategy: Sell: 4038–40 TP: 4010 SL: 4056 2 Gold prices saw a slight correction during Asian trading hours on Wednesday (July 15), currently trading around $4035 per ounce. Spot gold fell to its lowest level since July 1st yesterday, reaching $3983 per ounce, wit

Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a weak, range-bound pattern in the short to medium term. Trading is expected to remain largely range-bound at lower levels when the market opens next Monday; watch for a breakout from the 4100–4150 range! $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ H1 Chart: After a short-term rebound, prices have pulled back again and are fluctuating around the 4115–4150 range. The candlestick bodies and wicks indicate a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, while the red MA shows signs of flattening. The MACD has shown a slight golden cross or divergence signal, suggesting that short-term rebound momentum is limited and prices are likely to fl

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! 1 Key News-Driven Factors (Mixed Bullish and Bearish Sentiment, with Bears Slightly in the Lead) ： $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ 1. Bearish: The Fed’s monetary policy remains generally hawkish. Situation: Fed officials (such as Kevin Warsh) have previously raised their inflation and interest rate forecasts for 2026. Currently, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, while it is highly likely that rates will remain unchanged in July, the market is still pricing in the expectation of another rate hike in the future (e.g., in September). High real interest rates resulting from a high-interest-rate environment, coupled with a strong U.S. Dollar Index, are currently the pr

Impact of Core Fundamentals (News): $Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Bullish Factors: Weak labor market data has reduced the opportunity cost of holding gold, while continued gold purchases by global central banks as part of their reserve diversification efforts provide long-term strategic support for gold prices. Weakening Short-Term Catalysts: Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (such as shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Doha negotiations) have recently shown some marginal easing or a resumption of shipping, causing the geopolitical premium previously factored into prices to diminish somewhat. Intraday Focus: As market liquidity wa

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$Fed Policy Pressure (Bearish): The Federal Reserve has recently sent hawkish signals suggesting it may further tighten monetary policy this year. Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh reiterated the central bank’s determination to bring inflation down to the 2% target, which pushed up real U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY, which held steady above 101), causing gold—a non-interest-bearing asset—to suffer a sharp decline throughout June. Easing Geopolitical Tensions (Bearish): The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary ceasefire agreement and are moving forward with the Doha talks. The “safe-haven premium” driven by the Middle East geopolitical crisis has recently faded significantly, weakening safe-h

Technical Chart Patterns:$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$$XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$ Signs of a bullish breakout in gold are becoming increasingly clear. The candlestick chart shows a distinct V-shaped reversal combined with a stair-step rally accompanied by increasing volume! Following a surge triggered by positive economic data, the gold price instantly rose above the key psychological level of $4,100 and is currently testing the $4,200 level. Indicator Status: On the H1 timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening dramatically in an upward trend. The candlesticks are trading right along the upper band. The MACD is rapidly diverging above the zero line, with the red mome

Recent capital flows in the financial markets paint quite an intriguing picture. While everyone is still watching to see if US stocks have peaked or will continue to surge, massive funds have quietly executed a major rotation. In today's note, I will use the latest market fund data to discuss these ongoing trend changes. Let me start with the conclusion: the current downward trend in U.S. stocks may not have actually ended, but until the S&P 500 posts a pullback of more than 8%, we should not preemptively assume this is a massive bear market. We can consider carefully building short positions, but once key market signals appear, we must take profits promptly and adjust our bearish view. $S&P 500(.SPX)$

When you have a basic forecast for financial market trends, waiting for that prediction to materialize is often the most agonizing part. My recent source of anxiety stems from a potential intermediate-term top in the US stock market. Because the historically predictable impulse rally of the US Dollar Index might materialize within the next month, US equities and other risk assets could face downward pressure from a strong dollar, triggering a correction. Although this drawdown might not be massive, if we mindlessly maintain a "permabull" stance, we could suffer short-term losses. Watch for Technical Bearish Divergence According to our historical backtesting, the probability of US stocks delivering positive returns over the next three months is currently at its lowest, and a substantial dra

Six Key Data Points Trigger "Terrifying Volatility," How Will the Non-Farm Payrolls Data Determine the Fate of Gold and Silver?$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ Gold and silver will face a crucial test in the coming week, with investors focusing on the health of the US economy and labor market. In the next few trading days, the US will release a series of important economic data, which could significantly influence market expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path and further affect precious metal price movements. This week, gold and silver prices were supported by uncertainty surrounding the US economic growth outlook and expectations of changes in the interest rate path. Gold continued to benefit from safe-haven demand and t

I. Weekly Market Review: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Gold - main 2606(GCmain)$ As of Friday (April 17th) in Asian trading, international gold has recorded its fourth consecutive week of gains, accumulating a rise of approximately 18% since the rebound began at the 50-week moving average. The overall trend this week was one of initial rise followed by a pullback: Early Week High:Gold prices rebounded from a low of $4644.35, reaching a high of around $4890. Mid-Week Pullback: After rising above $4870 in Asian trading on Wednesday, prices faced resistance and retreated, giving back some of the gains. Gold prices were capped by the $4800 psychological level. High-Level Consolidati

Macro Theme: De-escalation and “Unstable Peace” as the Core Pricing Driver Although last weekend’s White House dinner shooting incident attracted significant attention, it did not create any material impact, and markets were not disrupted at the start of the week. Meanwhile, the ongoing “Middle East saga” continues steadily, and the U.S. decision not to arrange “in-person” negotiators suggests that the intermediary model has shifted toward “remote” communication. If no surprise attacks occur within the next one to two weeks, it can largely be concluded that this tug-of-war style “peace” will persist until around the midterm elections, when potential changes or turning points may emerge. The three potential models and scenarios of U.S.-Iran negotiations have already been discussed in previo

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

On May 28, 2026, gold (XAU/USD) is currently fluctuating around $4,373, exhibiting a clear short-term accelerated decline. $XAU/USD(XAUUSD.FOREX)$$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$ Technical Analysis: 1. Clear Bearish Pattern and Breakout From the candlestick chart you provided (with moving average indicators), we can see: Accelerated Breakout: Gold prices previously traded in a narrow rectangular range around $4,500 for a period. However, recently, the candlestick broke through the previous key support level and broke through the psychological level of $4,400 with consecutive large bearish candlesticks. Moving Average Resistance: The red moving averages (MA) in the cha

Hello everyone! Today i want to share some macro analysis with you! Gold opened slightly lower on Monday, June 1, 2026, falling as much as 0.48% to around $4,518 per ounce, as market sentiment briefly cooled. The previous weekend's lack of a clear breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks, coupled with the continued advance of Israeli troops into southern Lebanon, further exacerbated international concerns about the Middle East situation spiraling out of control. Meanwhile, US crude oil opened nearly 2% higher, surging over 3% to above $90 per barrel at one point. The rebound in energy prices directly boosted inflation expectations and strengthened the pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain high interest rates or even raise them, becoming the main reason for the short-term pressure on gold

Recently, the core variable in crude oil trading has still been the evolving situation in the Strait of Hormuz. Based on the information currently available, a second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran has already been put on the agenda. That, in itself, is a very important development. It suggests that the Strait of Hormuz crisis is moving away from a war-based resolution path and gradually shifting toward a negotiation-based one. In other words, the situation is easing rather than escalating. This shift matters because it directly changes the pricing logic of crude oil. If the market was previously trading on the assumption of escalating conflict, supply disruption, and uncontrolled risk, it is now beginning to price in easing tensions, advancing dialogue, and a dec

At present, global risk appetite across risk assets is still mainly driven by U.S. equities. As the marginal impact of Federal Reserve commentary has faded, the absolute dominant force shaping market sentiment remains the progress of the U.S.-Iran war. $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2606(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2606(MESmain)$ $微型SP500指数2606(MES2606)$ Why do we say the Fed’s commentary has become less influential at the margin? The reason is simple. First, there is no certainty that the so-called new chair, Warsh, will actually be able to take office smoothly

$Gold - main 2608(GCmain)$Gold prices stabilized around $4,500 on Friday (May 29), following a rebound from the previous trading session. Reports of an initial agreement between the U.S. and Iran eased market concerns over inflation and interest rate outlooks. Technical Analysis: After a sharp V-shaped rebound from a deep decline, gold found support at the bottom (around 4368–4372) and launched a powerful technical recovery. Moving average divergence correction: Following a rapid surge to approximately 4511.88, prices clearly diverged from the moving averages (MA). The current phase features sideways consolidation or slight pullback at higher levels—a typical adjustment in both time and space after a steep rally. Strong resista

The two-week negotiation window between the United States and Iran has come to an end. Over the past two weeks, market expectations were highly optimistic—U.S. equities surged, and oil prices declined. Unfortunately, as the deadline arrived, weekend news suggested that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. The final outcome will only be confirmed once a formal agreement is signed. In any case, the key signal remains unchanged: when the strait is fully reopened, that will mark the true end of this event. All other news is merely noise. There were earlier rumors suggesting that the U.S. proposed the two-week negotiation period as a cover to deploy additional military forces. If this proves true, further escalation of conflict cannot be ruled out. Investors should remain vigilant. I. Ca