Trump ultimately opted for the "Winning Strategy" we predicted to try and defuse the situation in Iran. While this somewhat delayed move briefly pushed oil prices down from $119 to below $80, the unresolved issue in the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices firm, preventing the situation from returning to an ideal state. As the Middle East narrative is likely to stretch into a significantly longer cycle, the risks of high oil prices transmitting into broader inflation will materialize. One thing is certain: the longer this drags on, the bigger the trouble for financial markets.​ From a technical standpoint, oil prices printed a massive Doji star last week, characterized by exceptionally long upper and lower shadows. Typically, after such a structure appears, the market requires time to dige

By the 11th day of the U.S.–Iran war, markets have gone through extreme turbulence. WTI crude futures have surged in the short term from 80 dollars—a level many traders saw as a point to close positions—to nearly 120 dollars, and then, within just one day, plunged sharply back down to around 83. U.S. equity indices also tumbled quickly when the war escalated, only to stage a broad-based rebound afterward. At this point, many investors are likely asking themselves: how should we position our portfolios now? What opportunities in the market are still worth our close attention? To figure out what opportunities in the market are really worth seizing right now, we first need to understand the macro logic that is driving current volatility. Let’s take a look at the macro transmission chain we’re

On Friday night, the U.S. Supreme Court voted 6–3 to overturn President Donald Trump’s broad-based tariff policy, ruling that it exceeded presidential authority. Because the decision had been widely anticipated, the market reaction was relatively muted, and U.S. equity indices even rebounded. However, Trump quickly voiced his dissatisfaction and announced a 15% global tariff (up from 10%) while launching a new investigation, stating, “We will be able to levy tariffs—more tariffs.” Since the additional tariff measures were announced over the weekend, Monday becomes the first real test of how sensitive the market is to this news. Overall, the tariff hike is a modest negative for U.S. equity indices, but for gold and silver it may serve as a catalyst for a renewed upswing. Will higher tariffs

Ahead of the holiday, I told everyone to temporarily consider taking profits on bullish positions in the U.S. equity market, and to look at building small long put option positions once the S&P moved below its 20-week moving average; alternatively, you could try buying VIX-long exposure on dips, using the VIX 20-day moving average as the stop level. From what we’ve seen so far, the VIX-long position should already be profitable： $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ $ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(VIXY)$ $ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF(UVXY)$ $Volatility Index - main 2603(VIXmain)$ My strategy remains un

The market’s focus is gradually shifting from gold and silver to U.S. equities, but we want to remind everyone that around the coming Spring Festival period, U.S. equities are actually the asset most in need of bearish “protection.” After a sharp sell-off, the U.S. stock market has recently seen a modest rebound, which is technically normal. However, I would not take this small rebound as evidence that Hong Kong stocks, A-shares, and U.S. equities have returned to a sustained upward trend. On the contrary, I prefer to interpret it this way: the volatility cycle in U.S. equities most likely has not finished, and this rebound looks more like a “covering” move within volatility rather than a signal that a trend has been confirmed. First signal: the DXY The first signal that U.S. equities may

I. How did @666 Dazi make $1.55 million?Last week, the US stock market experienced a sharp decline followed by a significant rebound. This historic market movement caused panic among many investors.A futures trader named 666 Dazi posted a screenshot early on Friday, April 12, showing a profit of $1.55 million. He is likely another mysterious big shot.From his brief sharing, it appears that he made a profit of $1.55 million by shorting one contract of $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2506(NQmain)$ .It is worth noting that on April 10, the Nasdaq fell by 852 points, rose by 2,121 points on April 9, and fell by 1,165 points on April 4. The historic volatility of the market last week was evident to all.In the futures market, such volatility can indeed le

$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has finally released the latest version of its "Full Self-Driving" software, FSD V13.2. Although it almost missed the previously promised Thanksgiving deadline, it was finally delivered before the end of November, marking another major victory for Tesla's artificial intelligence team.Biden is about to step down, and the chip field is rebounding $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , $Philadelphia Semiconductor Index(SOX)$ , $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ . Bitcoin has begun to correct $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ , $Coinbase

Just like the US dollar cycle shared with you in the previous post, it is only a matter of time before the Federal Reserve enters the interest rate cut cycle. The interest rate cut means that the US Dollar Index has entered the later stage of the depreciation cycle. At this stage, it will be relatively easier to go long . As a precious metal negatively related to the US Dollar Index sensitivity, it is the key variety to do more.First, the technical status of goldThere is nothing to say about the fundamentals of precious metals at present, because there is not much bad news at all. The Red Sea attack in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict benefits gold in terms of risk aversion, the depreciation cycle of the US dollar benefits gold at the monetary level, and the major central banks increase th