Despite greater stability in the bond market last week, key market bellwethers such as Bitcoin and gold showed signs of downside breakdowns. US equities also reversed sharply from their highs on the weekly chart. With oil approaching its previous peak and a critical market window drawing closer, investors should remain alert to the risk of a major correction. Markets also faced pressure two weeks ago, although the weakness was not yet broad based. Conditions have since changed as Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to sustain their rallies, while gold extended its decline and broke below $4,000. Risk assets now face renewed pressure from a potential broad based selloff. $比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ 

This technical review begins with CoreWeave (CRWV), a stock currently in focus. We examine what its break below $60 means as credit risk is repriced, then identify key technical levels for the Nasdaq, gold, crude oil, and the Hang Seng Index. The key question is whether the rebound after the sharp selloff can repair the technical damage and whether major support levels can hold. Let’s start with CRWV. CoreWeave: Credit Risk Repricing Pushes Shares Below $60 $CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ $Tradr 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CWVX)$ $Leverage Shares 2X Long CRWV Daily ETF(CRWG)$ 

What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch?  The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately.   The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital.   For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how these views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Nvidia Straddle Closed for Profit; Lock In Option Gains Promptly: The previously discussed Nvidia straddle has been closed at a profit. Investors still holding the position should consider taking profits promptly. Profitable calls bought at lower levels should also be monetized into the rebound before lower implied volatility, time decay and weaker buying erode returns. 2. US Equity Selloff May Be Near Its End, Creating Conditions for a Rebound: Leveraged ETFs recorded a sharp

The latest US inflation data had raised concerns that the Federal Reserve could deliver three rate hikes this year. However, recent CME FedWatch data indicate little risk of an additional hike in October. Combined with the continued decline in Treasury yields, this suggests that risk on trading may dominate in the near term. As the fourth quarter approaches, however, any rally in risk assets could prove to be the “last dance.” Even a sharp advance should not be mistaken for a durable trend. $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2612(ESmain)$ $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ 

Most of us assumed that CPI and the other data releases would stay relatively tame heading into the US midterms. Instead, the numbers came in hot. September CPI rose 3.7% year over year, a five-month high and above the 3.6% the market was looking for. The bigger surprise was core CPI, which strips out food and energy: it climbed to 2.6% year over year, also ahead of expectations and up from 2.4% the month before. As things stand, the market is already pricing in another Fed hike before year-end — CME's FedWatch Tool puts the odds at close to 90%. The most direct casualty of a higher-for-longer rate environment driven by sticky inflation is the cohort of tech companies that fund their capital spending with debt. To lock in the computing capacity that the next phase of AI development demands

Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger’s platform to discuss shifts in the U.S. dollar cycle. We explored whether it was time to buy the dip in gold, along with trading ideas for currencies, crude oil, and U.S. equities. If you missed the livestream, you can watch the replay here >> 點樣用一個策略交易油價波動？認識價差交易策略 Below, I have organized the key takeaways and trading views from the session by topic. For those who did not have time to attend, this should provide a quick overview of my current market outlook. First, a brief introduction to my background: Here are the key views I shared during the session: In this livestream,

Futures options are options on futures contracts. Trading volume and open interest reveal how capital is positioned across expiries and strike prices. They can help gauge market expectations, risk appetite, and potential support and resistance levels. However, they do not directly indicate a bullish or bearish view. Today, we examine the day-on-day changes in large futures options trades on October 14 versus October 13. These are the latest reported block trade flows and offer valuable market signals. The latest open interest distribution by strike shows no clear directional consensus on October 14. Crude oil positions remain defensive, while new flows are pricing tail risks in both directions. Nasdaq put options continue to lead in open interest, volume, and net additions, sending the str

This week, the dominant cross-asset pricing driver shifted from geopolitical risk premia to a U.S. rates shock. As Middle East supply disruption risks eased at the margin, crude oil retreated sharply from its mid-month high. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 30 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Oil’s decline did little to ease pressure on long-end yields, suggesting that the latest rate surge was driven mainly by a widening term premium and mounting Treasury supply pressure. With elevated rates and tighter liquidity expectations weighing on markets, equities, industrial metals, and precious metals all came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$

CFTC Data: What It Is, Why It Matters and What to Watch The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report each week. Known as the COT report, it is a key gauge of positioning across global futures markets. Its main value lies in showing which investor groups are driving price action. Market moves ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital. CFTC data makes these forces visible by breaking positions down by trader category. The CFTC divides market positions into three main categories: Non-commercial: Speculative traders, mainly hedge funds and CTAs, that seek to profit from price moves. They are the most responsive and directional market participants. Commercial: Companies that use futures to hedge business risks. Their positions primarily reflect risk

This week, the key pricing driver across major asset classes shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to a US rates shock. Oil prices retreated sharply from their mid-month peak as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 30 basis points over the week to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Falling oil prices failed to halt the rise in long-term yields, suggesting that term premiums and Treasury supply pressures had become the main drivers. As a result, equities, industrial metals and precious metals came under broad pressure.  $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金2612(MGC2612)$