Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter