In the latest week, US-Iran negotiations remained deadlocked. On May 18, Trump said that the military action against Iran originally scheduled for May 19 would be postponed, indicating that the US-Iran standoff did not escalate further this week. At the same time, the US publicly stated that the talks with Iran had made “significant progress,” while also saying that a “Plan B” was already prepared, which suggests that the substantive differences between the two sides have not been resolved. In addition to the ongoing market pricing of disruptions stemming from the Middle East situation, investors are also closely watching the progress of SpaceX, Elon Musk’s space company, which could potentially stage the “largest IPO in history.” As of 3:00 p.m. on May 21, 2026, the weekly performance of

Market regime review and the uncertainty of future directions Last week, Trump’s visit to China dominated most of the headlines, but after the lively atmosphere and optimistic expectations, it ultimately appears that no substantive outcomes were achieved. This led to a decline in most non-dominant risk assets in the latter part of the week, with both gold and silver signaling that the previous round of a corrective rebound has ended. However, as the summer rally approaches, whether a sustained performance can be achieved remains highly variable. Weak relative performance signals for precious metals and non-mainstream metals Silver posted a large upper shadow last week, with a intraday high near $90, but then retraced the gains over the next two trading days. The pace of the rebound is slow

What exactly does CFTC data tell us? Why are non-commercial positions the most critical? The core value of the CFTC Commitments of Traders (COT) report is not to tell us whether prices will rise or fall, but to reveal who is driving prices. Market price movements are essentially the result of capital flows and competition among different types of participants, and the CFTC data allows us to observe these groups separately. Among the three categories of positions, commercial traders typically engage in hedging, meaning their behavior is driven more by risk management than directional views. Non-reportable positions are relatively small and have limited influence on overall trends. The real driving force behind sustained price movements comes from non-commercial positions—speculative ca

What is CFTC Data? Why Must We Watch It? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released weekly by the CFTC (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission), serves as one of the key references for global futures market fund flows. Its greatest value lies in breaking down market participants, allowing us to see "who is buying and who is selling." CFTC categorizes market positions primarily into three groups: Non-Commercial Positions: Mainly speculative funds such as hedge funds and CTAs, representing the most sensitive and directional forces in the market. Commercial Positions: Industry clients using them for hedging, with weaker directionality. Non-Reportable Positions: Small funds, with minimal impact. Among these, non-commercial positions are the core focus. The reason is simple: these fun

Teacher Cheng Jun, a senior professional trader and analyst in the field of futures and financial derivatives, has more than 15 years of real-money margin trading experience and has been deeply engaged in financial markets since 2007. He specializes in trading and research on high-leverage instruments such as foreign exchange, gold, and futures, and has a distinctive approach to technical analysis. With the new U.S.–Iran situation continuing to unfold, the market has remained in a stalemate. Last week, major assets such as stocks, crude oil, and gold saw limited volatility. The negotiation process has yet to reach a clear outcome, and whether the final direction is a comprehensive agreement, military action, or a combination of fighting and talking, the eventual path still remains unclear.

Against the backdrop of the macro environment, this class focuses on the correlations among major U.S. asset classes, with an emphasis on the trends of U.S. stock indices and precious metals (CME COMEX gold futures & options, silver futures & options). It also provides brief comments on the current rapidly changing geopolitical situation, highlighting the importance of identifying trading opportunities and risk control amid uncertainty. Course Link:

After the sharp sell-off, the question weighing on many people right now is: can we buy the dip in gold and silver? If we do, are we looking at a short-term rebound—or a true reversal that resumes a longer-term uptrend? Let me start with the conclusion. In my view, the current rise in gold and silver should be treated only as a short-term rebound. Before prices rebound beyond a certain level, we should be extremely cautious: assume there will still be a C-wave selloff, and when the rebound peaks and shows signs of turning down, try again to build short positions. If the market keeps rising and moves above the entry level for the short, then stop out immediately. In short, before the market forms a clear bottoming structure, and before the risk event of Wash taking over as Fed Chair is defi

First, I want to share a screenshot from my previous analysis of silver and gold price action. In that earlier piece, I said silver’s short-term top—assuming the Fed did not turn more hawkish and there was no black-swan surge in the U.S. dollar—should be above 130, while gold could be headed above 5,000. A little over a week later, silver has already printed a new high, and gold has also surged well past 5,000. $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $白银2603(SI2603)$ $2倍做多白银ETF-ProShares(AGQ)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

It is official: Silver has gone parabolic! 📈 Breaking the $110/oz psychological barrier this week, the metal once known as "Poor Man's Gold" has shattered its 50-year consolidation mask. With the Gold/Silver Ratio crashing from extreme highs of 100+ back to under 47, we are witnessing a historic repricing. 💥 But as FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) kicks in and retail lines up for physical bars, we have to ask: Is this a fundamental shift for $Micro Silver Futures - main 2603(SILmain)$ and $iShares Silver Trust(SLV)$, or a dangerous speculative bubble waiting to burst? 🫧 1. The "Trump Put": A Green Light for Commodities? 🟢 Why the sudden explosion? Look no further than the Oval Office. 🏛️ As noted in rece

Last week and earlier, we said it was important to compare how gold and silver behave near their historical highs. With the rebound continuing, this week may bring a potential shift in relative strength, creating some trading opportunities. The core logic remains that the market needs to reverse the “silver strong, gold weak” setup; only after that would a potential medium-to-long-term top have a chance to form. If a breakout to fresh highs proves effective, the primary stance remains bullish.At Monday’s open, gold already printed a new all-time high, which clearly satisfies the first condition. There is also a hidden factor in that condition: the magnitude of the new high needs to be relatively limited; if the highs are persistent and clearly expanding, it suggests the market may continue

Scarcely had the Venezuela episode quietened than America began casting around for ways to rattle Iran—a sign that Donald Trump is unlikely to lie low before the 2026 midterms. With voters demanding lower inflation and reliable energy supplies, he must be seen to deliver on those pledges. For Mr Trump, the midterms matter more than most.With both chambers of Congress in Republican hands, Mr Trump’s legislative agenda can glide through with little more than a nod from Capitol Hill. But if the midterms strip his party of either the Senate or the House, his second term will soon resemble his first: gridlocked, frustrated, and reduced to bargaining endlessly with Democrats just to get anything done—a president in name only.The consequences of striking Iran?If America follows through, markets w

As expected from last week’s outlook, after silver posted its first “top-and-drop” move, silver futures have staged another sharp rebound exactly one week later. As discussed previously, silver rarely tops out with a clean inverted-V reversal based on its historical price behavior; more commonly, it forms a second rebound on the weekly chart and only then peaks again and rolls over, and that second rebound often appears about one week after the first peak-and-selloff.Review: Can the trading distribution of silver futures options “leak” the future path for silver?$白银主连 2603(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2603(SILmain)$

Silver experienced a significant drop last night. The sell-off erupted just after the CME raised margin requirements for silver futures. This move by the world's largest exchange by trading volume seems like an official endorsement of the view that "silver is currently overbought." Following the sudden liquidity tightening, silver futures fell over 10 points, causing a minor pullback in the US stock market's Christmas rally. Many are concerned: Is the uptrend in silver over? How likely is a continued sharp decline? Could it end the US stock market's Christmas rally as well?In fact, we warned about a potential silver drop in our previous analysis. I specifically highlighted the importance of the 5-day moving average for the main continuous silver futures contract. Theoretically, a short squ

This week, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda delivered his clearest signal so far that the BoJ is likely to raise rates this month. He indicated that the policy board may lift rates soon and specifically emphasized the possibility of taking action at the December BoJ meeting. At the same time, both the Finance Minister and the Economic and Growth Strategy Minister refrained from expressing any opposition, and this shift in stance has driven the implied probability of a December hike in Japan’s interest-rate derivatives market up to more than 80 percent at one point, making it almost a foregone conclusion.More importantly, expectations for this BoJ hike are quietly reshaping the global liquidity landscape and have a high likelihood of triggering broad, cross‑asset volatility in the near ter