What Is CFTC Data, Why Does It Matter, and What Should Investors Watch? The Commitments of Traders (COT) report, published weekly by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a key gauge of fund flows in global futures markets. Its main value lies in revealing who is driving prices. Market movements ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital, and CFTC data allow these participants to be analyzed separately. The analysis follows three main steps: Identify the dominant capital. For commodity futures such as WTI crude oil, gold and silver, the focus is on Managed Money net positions, which gauge the directional bias of speculative capital. Producer positions reveal commercial hedging pressure and help assess positioning structure and marke
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Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit
Futures Positioning Watch: US Index Shorts Retreat as Oil Bsulls Rush for the Exit
Futures Capital Insight: Rare Stock-Bond Outflows; Copper Stocks HHit Records, Diverging from Prices
This week, the dominant cross-asset pricing driver shifted from geopolitical risk premia to a U.S. rates shock. As Middle East supply disruption risks eased at the margin, crude oil retreated sharply from its mid-month high. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 30 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Oil’s decline did little to ease pressure on long-end yields, suggesting that the latest rate surge was driven mainly by a widening term premium and mounting Treasury supply pressure. With elevated rates and tighter liquidity expectations weighing on markets, equities, industrial metals, and precious metals all came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$
Futures Capital Insight: Rare Stock-Bond Outflows; Copper Stocks HHit Records, Diverging from Prices
Macro Weekly: Yields Near a Peak? Key Setups in Gold and Long Bonds
Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The
Macro Weekly: Yields Near a Peak? Key Setups in Gold and Long Bonds
Two Risk Events Ahead: Will Nvidia Lose Support? Options Strategies for Range-Bound Gold and Oil💰
The U.S. equity market has reached a near-term high. The hardest task now is not finding opportunities, but determining what the current volatility actually means. A pullback could be a minor interruption within a consolidation phase, or it could mark the start of a decline. An attempt to move higher could quickly reverse, or it could shift the entire trading range to a higher level. This is the crossroads at which U.S. equities now stand. $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $SP500指数主连 2612(ESmain)$
Two Risk Events Ahead: Will Nvidia Lose Support? Options Strategies for Range-Bound Gold and Oil💰
Futures Positioning: Risk Appetite Cools as Equity, Gold and Silver Longs Pull Back
CFTC Data: What It Is, Why It Matters and What to Watch The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report each week. Known as the COT report, it is a key gauge of positioning across global futures markets. Its main value lies in showing which investor groups are driving price action. Market moves ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital. CFTC data makes these forces visible by breaking positions down by trader category. The CFTC divides market positions into three main categories: Non-commercial: Speculative traders, mainly hedge funds and CTAs, that seek to profit from price moves. They are the most responsive and directional market participants. Commercial: Companies that use futures to hedge business risks. Their positions primarily reflect risk
Futures Positioning: Risk Appetite Cools as Equity, Gold and Silver Longs Pull Back
Futures Capital Insight: Investors Dump U.S. Stocks and Bonds as Gold Shorts Roar Back
This week, the key pricing driver across major asset classes shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to a US rates shock. Oil prices retreated sharply from their mid-month peak as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 30 basis points over the week to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Falling oil prices failed to halt the rise in long-term yields, suggesting that term premiums and Treasury supply pressures had become the main drivers. As a result, equities, industrial metals and precious metals came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金2612(MGC2612)$
Futures Capital Insight: Investors Dump U.S. Stocks and Bonds as Gold Shorts Roar Back
Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?
Weekly Overview Treasuries are the market’s pricing anchor. With the 10-year Treasury yield above 5%, equities, gold, and crypto assets all need to be reassessed in light of high-rate pressure. The Treasury Department’s earlier buybacks failed to reverse the trend in long-dated bonds. A peak in yields still needs confirmation. If oil remains range-bound, and with the two remaining rate hikes expected this year already priced in, the rise in yields may slow. But an escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions or more hawkish statements from the Fed could change that assessment. The conditions for a bond rebound are building. CTAs’ positioning in 10-year Treasuries is low, while speculative net positions in 10-year Treasuries have moved from deeply bearish to neutral, increasing the possibility of a bon
Macro Strategy Weekly:Treasury Yields Above 5%,How to Position for a Potential Long-Bond Rebound?
It All Comes Down to Rates: Are Hawkish Expectations Overpriced and Treasury Yields Near a Peak?
English version: If there is only one number worth watching closely in today's market, it is probably the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. It is no longer just a KPI for bond traders; it has become a common pricing anchor for U.S. equities, gold, crude oil and even Bitcoin. With that anchor pushed to a historic high of 5.2%, and the market having priced in both of the remaining rate hikes this year, a more important question arises: How much higher can it go? $美国2年期国债收益率(US2Y.BOND)$ $美国10年期国债收益率(US10Y.BOND)$ $美元ETF-PowerShares DB(UUP)$ I. One Master Switch Holds the Reins of Every Asset Let me start with the c
It All Comes Down to Rates: Are Hawkish Expectations Overpriced and Treasury Yields Near a Peak?
Stocks and Treasuries Diverge: How to Position Ahead of a Market Turn?📈📉
The encouraging directional signal from cryptocurrencies during FOMC week did not last long. Although the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high, most risk assets did not confirm the move. Worse still, long-term bond yields also hit new highs, clearly conflicting with the fundamental reasoning behind our earlier expectations. Judging by the credibility of these breakouts, the bond market may prove the more reliable signal if there is no outside intervention. That means we need to be more cautious about the possibility that the turning point could arrive sooner than expected. $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$ $BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Tr(BIT)$
Stocks and Treasuries Diverge: How to Position Ahead of a Market Turn?📈📉
Policy Shift Before the Midterms? 3 Ways to Position for Market Opportunities💰
Chinese leaders visited the United States last week. Even by the time the visit ended and the official readout was released, there were few concrete measures or signed agreements. Apart from the easing of trade tariffs that the market had widely anticipated, there was little of particular note. The lack of a major domestic publicity push around the visit’s outcomes is also telling. Clearly, Trump hopes to generate a series of positive developments ahead of the midterm elections to bolster his electoral prospects. In addition to the Chinese visit, there was news last week of U.S.–Iran talks, but that, too, amounted to more talk than action, with no tangible outcome yet. Any further impact on oil prices and inflation may therefore have to wait until after the midterms. For financial markets
Policy Shift Before the Midterms? 3 Ways to Position for Market Opportunities💰
Big Options Bets: Gold’s Defense Moves Up, Bitcoin’s 85K Put Signals Potential Regime Shift📈
A large 85,000 Bitcoin put order hit the market, while Gold’s defensive floor moved higher. Is the market about to turn? The option changes on September 22 show that open interest in Gold calls continued to expand. In Silver, traders maintained upside exposure at higher strikes while accelerating purchases of downside protection. In Bitcoin, however, new positions on both sides remained too small to be meaningful. This suggests that expectations for further upside in precious metals have not disappeared, but protection against pullbacks and volatility is becoming more expensive. Gold: Calls Still Dominate as Defensive Positioning Moves Higher Gold call open interest increased by a net 8,354 contracts, exceeding the 6,116-contract increase on the put side. Total call open interest stood at
Big Options Bets: Gold’s Defense Moves Up, Bitcoin’s 85K Put Signals Potential Regime Shift📈
Will September’s FOMC set the market’s direction——How to trade gold and Bitcoin trends?💰💰
Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>
Will September’s FOMC set the market’s direction——How to trade gold and Bitcoin trends?💰💰
U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb?
Last night, I hosted a live session on Tiger’s futures platform titled Global Multi-Asset Allocation Strategy. The session covered global macro conditions, U.S. equities, gold, and Bitcoin, with a focus on the market’s key tensions, potential risks, and corresponding trading ideas. For those who were unable to attend the live session, the replay is available here >>> U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb? Below, I have organized the key information and trading-related views from the session to help readers who did not have time to attend quickly understand my current market perspective. Before that, let me briefly introduce my background. I am currently a contracte
U.S. Stocks: Will Semis Drag Markets Lower Again? Bitcoin: Escape Hatch or Bomb?
Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
As of the close on August 28, 2026, this report examines the interaction among interest-rate expectations, the U.S. dollar, inventory data, fund flows, and speculative positioning across gold, silver, crude oil, copper, and aluminum. Market Overview U.S. July PCE inflation rose 3.7% year over year, while core PCE inflation increased 3.3%; both remained above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. At the Jackson Hole meeting, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh stated explicitly that “if inflation does not decline meaningfully, further rate hikes may be necessary,” significantly increasing market expectations for a September rate hike. Against this backdrop, the commodity market featured precious metals consolidating at elevated levels before pulling back, crude oil retreating as its geopolitical p
Futures Weekly：Gold Longs Stay Concentrated—Can Oil’s Advance Hold Without Inventory Support?
US Treasury Bond Purchases: Gold Surges, Dollar Plunges—But Is a Bull Market Really Here?
Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead? I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro
US Treasury Bond Purchases: Gold Surges, Dollar Plunges—But Is a Bull Market Really Here?
Are Asset Rebounds Near an End? How to Trade Bitcoin and Gold’s Key Levels
After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.
Are Asset Rebounds Near an End? How to Trade Bitcoin and Gold’s Key Levels
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour
Over the past week, renewed military clashes between the United States and Iran have shaken global equity markets, while gold has retreated sharply from recent highs and overall risk appetite has come under pressure. The situation on the ground remains highly uncertain, with persistent geopolitical tensions interacting with shifting macro expectations; most investors are adopting a cautious stance, waiting for subsequent key U.S. economic data releases in order to better gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy path and the trajectory of asset prices. As of around 4:00 p.m. on 12 June 2026, the weekly performance of major assets is as follows: In an environment where macro expectations are oscillating, looking at price moves alone is no longer sufficient to capture the main drivers of asset perf
Futures Weekly： Equities Cool, Bonds Heat Up While Gold Falls Out of Favour