English version： The first thing I did this week was not look for a new trade. I closed the straddle I had put on Nvidia last week. The table below summarizes the positions before I flattened the trade. The contrast was striking. The NVDA 227.5 call cost 4.39 and had fallen to 0.24, a loss of 94.53%. The put at the same strike and expiration cost 3.97 and had risen to 13.63, a gain of 243.61%. One leg was almost worthless, while the other had nearly tripled. Together they left the account with a profit of $2,530.50. That is the point of a straddle: you are betting on a large move, not on direction. Once the volatility has been realized, you should not overstay the trade. $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$

The U.S. equity market has reached a near-term high. The hardest task now is not finding opportunities, but determining what the current volatility actually means. A pullback could be a minor interruption within a consolidation phase, or it could mark the start of a decline. An attempt to move higher could quickly reverse, or it could shift the entire trading range to a higher level. This is the crossroads at which U.S. equities now stand. $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $SP500指数主连 2612(ESmain)$

A recent string of mismatches between macro data and capital flows has revealed a new direction for the rotation across global asset classes. After deeply reviewing the latest non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, the U.S. Dollar Index, the yen's trajectory, and U.S. equity fund flows, I want to discuss a new trading thesis that may differ from what many people think: the pressure that a rising Dollar Index puts on global equities is not over. Bottom-fishing is not currently suitable for U.S. stocks, but it may be relatively suitable for U.S. Treasuries. Why do I say this? To sum up my current logic chain: although over the past week the Dollar Index staged a pullback at its major resistance around 101.3, judging from the performance of the yen — the dollar's second-largest counterpart — and the t