FOMC Rate Cut Tonight! Can S&P Hit 6000 This Friday?
After US election results, investors are now turning their attention to today’s Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
Powell will avoid answering election-related questions, striving to remain politically neutral. Typically, the Fed announces its rate decision in the early hours of Thursday, but this time it has been postponed to Friday to distance it from political events.
The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.
1. Will "Trump trade" lead to reflation?
Trump's victory signals faster economic growth and higher inflation.
Trump’s proposed tax cuts and deficit spending could lead to reflation. He has also considered replacing the Fed leadership and claims he has the right to comment on interest rates.
Long-term US Treasury yields have risen by nearly 20 basis points, the US stock market has hit record highs, and the dollar has strengthened.
2. What’s next for rate cuts?
Any signs of renewed inflation acceleration would mean the Fed might either slow down rate cuts or halt them altogether, and rates may not fall as low as previously forecast.
Analysts now expect fewer rate cuts:
JPMorgan: Expects 25 bps rate cuts this week and next month, but fewer rate cuts in total than previously anticipated before the election.
Bank of America: If the new president imposes significant tariffs, the Fed may pause rate cuts.
Nomura: Forecasts a 75 bps inflation rise by 2025, expecting only one rate cut next year, versus four previously predicted before the election.
What’s your view on Fed rate cuts?
If there’s no rate cut in December, will Treasury prices continue to fall?
Could the Fed’s decision push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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鮑威爾將避免回答與選舉相關的問題，努力保持政治中立。通常情況下，美聯儲會在週四凌晨宣佈利率決定，但這次是推遲到週五，以遠離政治事件。
市場普遍預期一個降息25個基點，但關鍵在於美聯儲的政策引導。
根據CME FedWatch工具，11月份降息25個基點的可能性爲97%。
特朗普提出的減稅和赤字支出可能會導致通貨再膨脹。他還考慮更換美聯儲領導層，並聲稱自己有權對利率發表評論。
美國長期國債收益率上漲近20個基點,美國股市屢創新高，美元走強。
prepare for anything... cause anything can happen...
The market widely expects a 25 basis point rate cut, but the key lies in the Fed’s policy guidance.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97% probability of a 25 bps cut in November.
@GoodLife99 @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT @Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa
What’s your view on Fed rate cuts?
If there’s no rate cut in December, will Treasury prices continue to fall?
Could the Fed’s decision push the S&P 500 to 6000 points this week?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
首先，降息虽有助于短期内支撑股市，但股市的长期表现不仅仅取决于货币政策，还与企业盈利、经济增长以及全球宏观环境密切相关。近期全球经济的不确定性，包括供应链问题、地缘政治风险等，仍然可能对股市构成一定压力。
另一方面，随着年底的临近，市场情绪往往更为积极，投资者可能会受到“FOMO”（害怕错过）效应的驱动，资金可能加速流入股市，这对标普500上涨起到积极作用。然而，市场也需要警惕情绪波动，避免过度乐观。
从我的个人观点来看，尽管降息为股市带来一定的支撑，但能否突破6000点，仍需密切关注经济数据和市场情绪。如果接下来的经济数据继续向好，标普500触及6000点的可能性会增大。
Supports Stock Markets: Lower rates can lead to higher stock prices as investors seek higher returns than what's available from bonds and savings accounts.
Eases Debt Burden: Lower interest rates reduce the cost of servicing existing debt, providing relief to both consumers and companies with outstanding loans.