1.Consumer Staples extreme cheap vs the index.Some would say this is an opportunity.Others would say this is the type of thing you see at the top (n.b. notice where it traded at the dot-com bubble peak vs the 2009 financial crisis lows). 2.Shrinking Large Caps!Large caps (i.e. the S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ -- excluding the top 100 mega-caps) market cap weight has shrunk to the smallest % on record.Still much larger than small and mid caps, but another sign of the times in these lop-sided markets (which are rich in price & opportunity For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ size indexes relative performanceBasically everything that's not mega caps have underperformed --- even large caps have seen significant underperformance (i.e. the S&P500 excluding the top 100 stocks)Highly unusual, but whenever it happens like this eventually you see some give-back... Rate Cuts = Commodities Up. 📈 A global pivot to rate cuts over the past 2 years has set up a major tailwind to growth ...and ultimately higher commodity prices. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SGD1000* to get SGD 688 sto

1.The history of US interest rates is one of long-term cycles...Up phases, and down phases.High rates, low rates.But something stands out >> these cycles used to take a long time to run their course. The recent upcycle was faster and sharper.Is this the beginning of cycle compression? 2.Key theme for 2026... 🧐🤔Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is Expensive.Commodities are Cheap.Rotation time? 3.Bonds $iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF(TLT)$ are still in a bear market...But here's some clues on the next steps: For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Com

1.Tech share of total S&P500 $S&P 500(.SPX)$ corporate capex has reached new all-time-highs. 👀 Bubble or boom, this is extreme. 2.After spending ~20-years dumping Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ (in the 90's/00's), Central Banks have spent the last 15-year undoing their previous mistake...Reserves Diversification remains a key driver in the modern Gold bull market. 3.A major secular tailwind behind US Equities has been the rise and rise of foreign stockholders.I'd call this a strength, a potential weakness, and a reflection of multiple facts-of-life in modern markets. For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commissi

1.Gold $Gold - main 2602(GCmain)$ is up over 50% YTDNasdaq $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ is up ~20% YTDAnd yet investors remain enamored with tech stocks, and ambivalent on gold... 2.Massive gap between gold and the cost of production...There's some very good things about this, but also some cause for caution. 3.Banks are reporting higher Loan Demand -- this is bullish for the economic outlook.Entirely consistent with out global growth reacceleration thesis... For SG users only, welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade wi

The rise of Retail.The 2020 stimmy unleashed a wave of speculation that has only grown and intensified since.There is an air of desperation.People feeling like they’re behind and trying to catch-up by taking big risks, people chasing those stories of overnight wealth, and even folk trying to get rich before AI takes over the world.Or in simpler terms, the combination of big bull markets, easy money, and improved access to trading and information has really democratized markets — and the numbers show it clearly. For SG users only, Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete your first Cash Boost Account trade with a trade amount of ≥ SG

1.Public Markets = pick the asset class 🤔 Private Markets = pick the manager 🧐 Mileage varies greatly across (but not so much within) asset classes for Public assets -- while mileage varies enormously *within* asset classes for the very opaque, illiquid, and idiosyncratic Private markets... 2.Bubble Bursting?I previously highlighted when this chart was at its peak that this is either going to be a tipping point or tripping point for Bitcoin, and now it sure looks like a tripping point... 👀 For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welcome to open a CBA today and enjoy access to a trading limit of up to SGD 20,000 with upcoming 0-commission, unlimited trading on SG, HK, and US stocks, as well as ETFs. Find out more here.Complete yo

1.Tide is Turning... 👀 "I keep coming back to this chart as barometer of speculative risk appetite and liquidity (+potential early-warning indicator). To that end, with bitcoin rolling over and tech topping out, it’s not a good sign." $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ 2.The "Relative Return Procession" is progressing...Next up?Gold breaking out vs stocks. 👀 $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3."in the long-run stocks go up"Yep.But sometimes they not only don't go up, but actually get f----d up. Here's some horrific examples.A world map infographic titled Worst Investor Experiences showing major cases of 80 to 100 percent returns below zero over 20-year periods from 1900 to 2000 with orange highlights on countries like United

1.Semi's Sign 'o the Times...Bulls: this is fine, this is the new normal, it's backed by earnings, it's high for good reason.Bears: this is dot-com 2.0, earnings are unsustainable, AI bubble.The Truth? $VanEck Semiconductor ETF(SMH)$ 2.Gold Bull ConsolidationsIt's entirely normal for big gold bull markets to have long pauses, and if anything the entire up-move in gold almost only happens over a few key weeks and days... $Gold - main 2512(GCmain)$ 3.Global Equities "Relative Value Trinity"...something for those focused on the next 3-5 years and beyond (vs the next 3-5 days or hours for that matter!) For SG users only, a tool to boost your purchasing power and trading ideas with a Cash Boost Account!Welc

Onwards and Upwards in November?November is one of the best months of the year historically [a close 3rd in terms of % positive at 69% and first place in terms of average return at 1.6%]Of course it should also be highlighted that while the best November in history was +11%, the worst November in history was -11% …and by definition 31% of the time returns were negative.But just on averages and odds, there is a statistical shine to NovemberImageDo NOT Concentrate 🫤 When it comes to stockmarket performance the more concentrated the index becomes, the more attractive it is to sail in the opposite direction of cap-weighted strategies and go for equal-weighted. Probably a lot of this is the result of the dot com bubble and early-1980’s oil boom, but it’s not the only analysis on this issue...Im

Ignore margin debt charts!(except this one)Ignore the ones that just show you a useless unprocessed picture of total nominal margin debt ...usually with some dumb ill-informed and mis-informing hyperbolic blabber about new all-time highs.Pay attention instead to ones that transform it into something tactically useful and relevant like this one: $S&P 500(.SPX)$ Line chart titled Margin Debt Expansion vs Contraction Indicator displays S&P500 levels in black line on left axis from 500 to 1600 and FINRA margin debt year-over-year percentage change in red line on right axis from -60% to 100% over years 1995 to 2025. Green shaded areas indicate contraction periods and red shaded areas indicate expansion periods. Blue dots highlight specific data

European Equities used to be at least as good as US Equities.But something(s) changed in 2009.One issue was that Europe had to deal with the hangover from the credit boom, with rolling sovereign debt crises and structurally lower growth as it digested years of malinvestment and deleveraging.The USA on the other hand saw a decade+ of super-easy monetary policy + struck “tech stock oil” (and actual oil with the shale boom, and now “AI oil”).While it’s hard to see the USA coming unstuck or Europe striking its own oil, the thing to keep in mind is that the narrative and story usually only becomes obvious after price has moved…Line chart divided into two periods: 1990-2009 on left showing Euro Stoxx in blue and S&P 500 in black both indexed to 100 rising and falling similarly from 1990 to 2

The inflection point underway in EM vs DM actually echoes a larger theme of US stocks starting to run out of steam vs the rest of the world.A key part of the flipside of the EM vs DM relative bear market is the long-term and massive relative bull market in US vs Global stocks. But to echo the comments from above, the thing about long-running and overhyped bull markets is that they start for good reason and end when things become unreasonable e.g. valuations become stretched and set an improbable high bar for future performance, investors become giddy and overallocate to that market, and the underlying fundamental story reaches maturity (and ultimately becomes unsustainable).In other words: the USA is towards the end of its cycle, while EM is arguably just at the beginning stages of its cyc

This chart shows the price to 10-year average trailing earnings (smooths out the sometimes highly distorted picture from just 12-month trailing) aka PE10 ratio for the USA and the average reading across the countries in Developed, Emerging, and Frontier markets.Zooming out you can see the clear cycles of boom and bust (and the risks + opportunities in absolute terms), but also the convergence and divergence across those groups over time as international investing grew in popularity and then got cast to the wayside.With one glance you can get a fairly good feel for where the longer-term risks and opportunities are here (and probably unsurprising given the previous charts). I can’t help but think how interesting the next decade in global equities is going to be, especially coming from this s