1.The 1850's-1930's was of course a very different time for the US (and the world) than now, but this chart sure serves as a reminder that it's not always the nice smooth up-right sloping chart pattern that we're all used to seeing.Lost decades (lost centuries?) happen. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.Corporate Tax RatesHow low can you really go?US listed companies effe

1.While not all market peaks look like this (it is an average after-all), it serves as a reminder that it's not always easy to just sit tight and ride the trend with a plan to gracefully and gradually get out at the top.Market peaks happen when you least expect it, and often leave you with little time or conviction to do anything about it! $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Credit Spread Cycles?Yep -- credit spreads go through cycles, just like the stockmarket (but inverted) From boom to bust, fear to greed, chaos to confidenceImage3.Credit spreads are Crazy tightConfidence or Complacency?Image

1.you know, from a seasonal standpoint, it looks like BTC has done its dash... no 100k for you! 👺Image2.Internet stocks took more than a decade to bring in enough sales growth to back the hype of their stupendous valuations.Important historic cautionary...Image3.Central Banks around the world are furiously clicking the "un-do" button on previous panic tightening...What comes next could be hugeImage4.What's your process?Can you even answer that question?Here's a look at how we make sense of the world of macro and markets: Image

1.In recent decades, as a public company, your chances of survival is about 60-70% across the first 5-years (which drops to 50-60% over a 7-year window). Mauboussin quips “public companies have a half-life of about 10 years” — makes you think: buy-and-hold works at the aggregate index-level, but the implication of this data is many individual companies drop-off along the way.Image2.If you ask the average investor what market they think will do the best in 2025, probably most would say USA But what if the opposite of consensus happens -- valuations point us in an interesting direction:Image3.REITs ready?Things to think about for REITs + CRE: Image

1.Bitcoin just catching up?triggering charts aside (yes post your comments), it is indicative of the wider speculative mood (bullishness, euphoria, optimism) $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image2.Fun fact: 44% of all companies ever in the Russell 3000 experienced a catastrophic loss at some point during the past 40yrs.(which is defined by JPM as 70% decline in stock price from peak levels which is not recovered)Mind your risk.Image3.Valuation extreme driven peaks and troughs are relatively rare (e.g. in this study 8 peaks, 12 troughs from 1910-2024)But they can have a massive positive or negative impact on your wealth depending how you navigat

1.You've probably seen the classic stockmarket seasonality charts before...but did you know seasonality works different in bull markets vs bear markets? $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.The best time to own bonds is into and during a recession... which is also the worst time to own stocks.(i.e. what is diversification?)Image3.Best buying?When the market is cheap, interest rates are low and falling, economic data is so bad it's good (and then turns up), sentiment is extreme bearish (and bounces), positioning is washed out, technicals are oversold (and then break out vs resistance)Image

1.Stocks go up in the long-run, you've seen the chart with the near-straight up to the right sloping line...BUT: there are cycles and entry-point matters a lot. This chart shows how even longer-term returns (10yr annualized real total returns) can swing wildly from very good to pretty bad $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Absolute Valuations help determine future absolute returns... AND Relative Valuations help determine future *relative* returns: Image3.Best Stocks of all-time?=those who stuck around long-enoughmost companies were 70-90yrs+ old>> big win for "time in the market"(obviously some survivorship/selection stuff going on here, but interesting nonetheless)From the paper

1.ETF investors are just not interested in Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ Implied allocations to both gold ETFs and gold miner ETFs are still tracking around the lows...Image2.Predictable Cycle set to Turn?Or different this time... Long-term perspectives on stocks: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ Image3.European stocks used to walk a very similar path to US, but that all changed after the financial crisis (and years of sovereign debt mess)You might call the left chart the honeymoon period for the European Union!Image4.Emerging Markets ex-ChinaA big Breakout: Image

1.The top-10 stocks don't usually win...History tells a story of the top-10 stocks under-performing vs the equal-weighted (490) stock index... with brief but often spectacular interludes $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ -- is it over just as quick as it started?Reminder on what's behind the Brobdingnagian breakout: Image3.Crude Oil $Micro WTI Crude Oil - main 2412(MCLmain)$ on the Cusp of CapitulationImage

This week I covered the following topics/ideas:1. US Dollar: After a sharp rally, the DXY is now overbought, facing a major overhead resistance zone, consensus bullishness, fading seasonal tailwinds, expensive valuations, and monetary/fiscal headwinds. 2. China: Bullish China A-shares on cheap valuations, improved technicals, stepped up stimulus and fading tail risks (initial rebound in property prices), and excess pessimism (global/US).3. Commodities: Remain bullish commodities on cheap valuations, supply tailwinds, sentiment/positioning signals, multiple bullish technical indicators, and the prospect of global growth reacceleration.4. Oil & Energy Stocks: Continue to see upside risk for crude oil given sentiment/technicals and robust demand, but arguably geopolitical tail risk has re

1.Some sectors win bigSome sectors win many timesBut no sector or style stays on top forever, it's a merry-go-round seesaw of a ride, and one with many opportunities for sector allocation strategies: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.How to win in markets?Value Investor at ExtremesMomentum Investor through the RangeImage3.US investors allocate 3x as much to stocks as Europeans... do you think this impacts the culture, thinking, and regulations around capital markets and the economy?Image

1.Not-dot-com... something else!Tech stock valuations are priced for perfection+ What's similar vs different to the dot com bubble, and key points for investorsImage2.Stock Splits boost returns(or is it just that stocks that go up are more likely to split... 🧐 ) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image3.Gold $Gold - main 2412(GCmain)$ is overvaluedImage4.Emerging Markets *ex-China* are set t

1.For those who make bullish comparisons with President Trump's 2016 victory, there is one key difference. Large cap equity valuation is way higher than it was in 2016 and bond yields were around 2%. Maybe small caps are the best Trump-trade this time around. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ Image2.Today's stock indexes feature elaborate sector/industry breakdowns to group and classify stocks... and ultimately determine fl

1.Sentiment -- surely the crowd won't be wrong Sentiment for US equities reaches a phenomenal level of +53 percentage points, marking a new all-time high (data history since 2001)! The optimism is focussed very strongly on the US markets. sentix Sentiment US equities and S&P 500Surely stocks will still head higher even though valuations are double that what we saw in 2016, and sentiment metrics are at record highs vs outright bearish in early 2016 🤔2.The rise of Intangibles...The stockmarket used to be backed by hard, real, tangible assets. But then the information age happened.Does make you wonder if some day this trend will change, perhaps in the coming commercial space age boom?Image3.The perfect indicator:-works for good reason-works as it should-works over timeWorked example: Imag

1.Confidence vs Hype: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ There’s confidence, and then there is just straight-up hype. History doesn’t repeat, but it often rhymes, and there sure is a rhythm in this chart!Image2.Remember "meme stocks" ?What a dumb and weird episode in markets that was 😵‍💫 -- maybe at least it got some younger folk interested in investing, and hopefully they eventually learned some sounder principles....Image3.When it comes to investing, focusing on the long-term and just keep on investing more is typicall

1.In the long-run earnings growth is structural, and follows the typical uptrend we're used to seeing...In the short-run, earnings are cyclical, and follow the economic/monetary cycle(s)Long-term perspectives on the market: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ Image2.Credit Spreads are tracking round 17-year lows(!)Here's why + how to navigate the credit market cycle: Image3.Short & sharp corrections are fairly common outside of recessions......but when recession hits you can get large and drawn-out draw-downs.Image4.New Year's resolutions hack = start nowSeriously, think of your 2025 resolutions, start th

1.Fed cuts a further -25bps to 4.75%Imagep.s. if this turns out to be it for the Fed (i.e. a Short Cut cycle, followed by a return to hikes) -- both stocks and bonds are basically on-trackShort-Cutting cycles tend to see bond yields head higher and stocks trend up:ImageMeanwhile Brazil continued it's un-pivot -- back into rate hikes after a short-lived cutting cycleImage2.Looking at the breakdown of Expected Returns for Global Equities we can see how US stocks face a very high valuation hurdle to overcomeMeanwhile the rest of the world has a slight valuation edge and tailwindImage3.US investors have a massive home-bias when it comes to their stock portfolios... and some might say justifiably so.But it turns out there are a lot of countries with an even bigger home-bias (albeit kind of inte

1.Stocks vs BondsSstocks beat bonds most of the timeBut bonds beat stocks almost all of the time when stocks went down (with a couple of notable, somewhat predictable exceptions!)Asset allocation perspectives: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2412(ESmain)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL