1.The thematic Capex boom of 2023/24 was a key and somewhat surprising development... Can it continue in 2025 and beyond?Key Charts of 2024Image2.rising bond yields is not a mystery, it's entirely consistent with a short rate cutting cycle (i.e. the bond market believes the Fed is basically done with rate cuts)Image3.CATASTROPHIC LOSSES 😱 44% of all companies ever in the Russell 3000 experienced a catastrophic loss at some point during the past 40yrs.(which is defined by JPM as 70% decline in stock price from peak levels which is not recovered)Some interesting stats (e.g. compare and contrast the cyclical vs defensive sectors)Image4.It took the average worker in America about 15 hours of work to buy an ounce of Gold back in 2001...That figure is now 75hrs (~2 weeks) !-- is the Gold Price t

1.Best Time for Treasuries?Historically treasuries put in their best performance, and stock-beating performance during recessions. I would note, you don’t *need* a recession for bonds to do OK, but you do need a recession for bonds to do spectacular (hence why bonds are often referred to as diversifying assets… at least outside of inflationary shocks!). $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJ

1.“time-in-the-market” The popular aphorism states the longer your holding period, the more likely returns are to be positive. BUT a couple of points... 1. A longer holding period does *not* guarantee positive returns (6% is not zero, it's slightly more than 1/20) 2. Smart diversification and risk management should be able to help smoothen the path and help your odds $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.This was another key chart in 2024 as it helped define a major support level for crude oil, and identify a clear sentiment range-lock...Not only that, it will be a critical chart for the months ahead $WTI Crude Oil - main 2502(CLmain)$ Image3.T

1.The Drawdown in Treasuries goes to show that asset allocators should consider more levers than just bonds in the defensive/diversifier sleeve of their portfolios...How gold fits in $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ Image2.This chart made my favorites of 2024 list simply because of how extreme it has becomeRare to see such exponential curves in markets: “in the short-term, the DXY has found support and oversold conditions, and the reset in sentiment could open the door to a rebound.”Image3.This was one of my favorite charts of 2024, and I think it's probably quite easy to see why $.SPX(.SPX)$ “Digging into equities, and for a moment ignoring all the macro narratives and scenarios, the longer-term sentiment

1.Something Happened in 2009 European equities used to be good — more or less as good as US stocks. But something(s) changed in 2009. One issue was that Europe had to deal with the hangover from the credit boom, with rolling sovereign debt crises and structurally lower growth as it digested malinvestment and deleveraging. The USA on the other hand saw years of easy policy + struck "tech stock oil" $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Another one in the “not yet” basket, global vs US relative valuations went from cheap to cheaper. As they say the trend is your friend until it bends, and this trend has not bent yet. Be careful picking turning points:Image3.Sentiment is souring on Gold...

1.Stocks were looking stretched vs bonds in 2024, and ultimately went on to become even more stretched!Retrospective in risk and wrongs: $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Last year this chart was telling us credit spreads might go up... instead credit spreads fell to 17-year lows!Sometimes it's just not as simple as you think: Image3.Small Small: small caps are much smaller than usual as a percentage of all US equities. This should also be seen as a contrarian signal, and a clue to pay attention to.Image

1.Interesting observation from GMO: Since 1957, the 10 largest stocks in the $.SPX(.SPX)$ have underperformed an equal-weighted index of the remaining 490 stocks by 2.4% per year. But the last decade has been a very notable departure from that trend, with the largest 10 outperforming by a massive 4.9% per year on average. It’s rare and bubbly for the top stocks to outperform like this!Image2."Reacceleration" did *not* happen in 2024, which goes to show sometimes it takes a while for leading indicators to work (and sometimes not at all)Image3.This chart was warning of recession (too early) last year, was it just a case of too early vs wrong?(is there even a difference?)Still an interesting chart, with 3-way confirmation of signal despite being wron

1.How low can US corporate tax rates really go?The effective tax rate for US publicly traded companies has already come down significantly both recently and over the years...Will this trend end or extend?Image2."the stockmarket is expensive..."Yes, but relative to what?Global investors have the luxury and imperative of thinking in 2 dimensions (and often more) instead of just 1 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ $GLOBAL X DO

1.Tech = Earnings inflationNon-tech = Earnings stagnationWhat this means for investors$.IXIC(.IXIC)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$Image2.Equity Culture: US investors allocate 3x as much of their financial assets to equities than those in Europe/UK. Is this a culture thing? or is there something else to it…Another point to ponder is the impact of this on valuations -- it should be no surprise that European stocks trade at a big discount vs US when you see this chart!Image3.EM Equities actually had a decent run last year,and funnily enough, after an earlier push higher, Investor Sentiment on emerging markets has dropped back towards where it was the start of

1.Gold $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ had a storming run in 2024, up about 26% ...but so did stocks (up about the same YTD)Result = range-trade-for-longer and no resolution of that epic 30-year triangle pattern in the gold/stock ratio (yet) $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.Go Global in 2025? Image3.Commodity Cycles The bullish breadth divergence in this chart helped identify the (double) bottom in commodities this year. (+will be a key chart and asset class for the year ahead)Image4.The China Risk Premium The pivot to greater easing helped Chinese stocks put in a very rapid and large rally in 2024. One key ingredient to that has been the very

1.US Tech Stocks have *never* been this expensive outside of the dot com bubble...does that mean it's a bubble again?Maybe (but there is nuance)Reasons for this + outlook $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image2.US Stock Indexes used to only have 3 Sectors (Industrials, Utilities, and Rails)How times have changed...(and continue to change: e.g. telecoms got renamed to communication services, and a bunch of tech stocks got reshuffled into that sector and consumer discretionaries)do sector labels really matter? 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ Image3.You probably know how to use valuation signals to figure

1.Higher For Longer: This chart was key in 2024 by stopping us getting too bullish on bonds, as a new higher range-trade took hold...Image2.Moar Moore’s LawGood cause for long-term optimism.Albeit, n.b. even as humanity as a whole wins from the onward march of technological progress, the individual winners vs losers will be in near-constant flux + difficult to pick with precision.Image3.US PE Ratios about 2x that of Chinawhy?Because it's ""obvious"" --> explained: Image4.Gold vs Bitcoin: when 5th cycle?If these cycles continue to repeat and a 5th cycle is about to begin that will mean a large wave of outperformance by Gold vs Bitcoin over the coming 12-18 months $Gold - main 2502(GCmain)$ $CME Bit

1.Meme Stocks.It was supposed to be some weird David vs Goliath thing, but ultimately it really was about a few lucky individuals getting in early, and the subsequent arrival of dumb money who followed the pied piper and lost.Beware of folk selling get rich quick, because it may not be you that gets rich quick! 😲Image2.This is perhaps *the* most important chart of the past few years, it helped in detecting key shifts in monetary policy settings ─ and that’s really been a key macro call to get right in this day and age.Image3.The mountains and valleys of years gone by in Emerging Markets vs US Equities relative performance... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$

1.Correction MapNon-recession corrections are opportunities to buy the dip, but larger recessionary corrections (I would call them bear markets) require diversification and risk management to make as much the most of the downside as the subsequent upside in my somewhat learned opinion... 🤓 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image2.US High Yield credit spreads have moved up some ~30bps off the lowsThis may or may not turn out to be **the** low... but the push lower in credit spreads has clearly stalled for now.What may come nextImage3.Most markets and assets follow cycles, those cycles are often driven and defined by the prevailing economic and monetary forces at playInvestors can navigate risk

As we close out the year I thought it would be good to share some of my charts and calls that worked particularly well this year (and don't worry, I will be sharing my worst charts next week... there are always two sides to the coin!!).These charts were featured in my just-released 2024 End of Year Special Report — check it out when you get a chance (free download as a holiday treat!).The charts listed below were particularly helpful in developing and updating some of my key calls and recommendations for clients this past year. I find that while I do tell the story around the charts and build the picture with multiple “puzzle pieces“, in many cases a good chart speaks for itself and does much of the heavy lifting in the investment or macro thesis.It's also a good exercise to go through — t

1.Home is Where the Stocks Are? Turns out "investors’ portfolios tend to overweight their home country no matter where they live" Few investors understand why they should go global (tactically OR strategically)Image2.Not to be a grinch, but here's a history of Bear Markets in case anyone is interested... $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Investors who ignore charts like this may end up getting coal for Christmas next year 🤔 Image

1.ETF Strategies Performance post-LaunchThematic strategies have a habit of underperforming post-ETF launch (might say they are good at picking the top -- easiest time to raise AUM is when a strategy/style/sector is hot)Image2.Investors who ignore charts like this may end up getting coal for Christmas next year 🤔 $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ Image3.Credit spreads go through cycles that sort of mirror or echo the same kind of cycle we see in the stockmarket and the economy.In boom times spreads are low as investors grow relaxed about credit risk.In times of recession and crisis investors suddenly remember credit risk!Image