Last night, I shared my latest assessment of gold, equity indices, crypto assets, and the US dollar in the futures livestream room on the Tiger Brokers platform following the release of news regarding US Treasury purchases of government bonds. The central focus of the livestream was how to determine whether the market had shifted from a consolidation phase into a new trending phase by analyzing correlations among different asset classes. For those who were unable to attend, the replay of the video course is available below: Massive US Treasury Rescue Buying! Gold Surges, the Dollar Plunges: What Trading Opportunities Lie Ahead? I will now categorize and summarize the key information and trading-related insights fro

After the sharp pullback and subsequent rebound in the previous phase, major asset classes have returned to a relatively calm pattern. However, the fact that some assets have stalled should not be viewed as a positive signal. If they fail to extend their rebound or make new highs over the coming weeks, it may indicate that another leg lower is approaching. The first market to watch is crypto, which we have consistently treated as a leading indicator. Although its reference value has deteriorated meaningfully compared with one to two years ago, it has still shown signs of acting as an early mover in the current market cycle. Both Bitcoin and Ethereum rebounded sharply from late June, but have spent the past six weeks hovering near their lower ranges.

Following the stronger-than-expected non-farm payrolls data, the market’s perceived probability of Federal Reserve rate hikes has continued to decline. The market now needs the next payrolls report to establish a new set of expectations. This means that, before the next data release, sentiment is likely to remain constructive. Even without a major trend, the market is likely to stay range-bound. (Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.) Over the weekend, there were further developments related to the Strait of Hormuz. The market has largely abandoned expectations for meaningful progress in negotiations, and there may not be significant movement even before the mid

The long-awaited breakout in gold’s rebound finally arrived last week. With a 7% gain in a single week, gold quickly achieved the measured target of its daily-chart double-bottom breakout. The question now is whether the rebound can continue—and, if so, where the next major resistance levels may emerge. To answer that question, we should first compare the price action of gold futures and spot gold. After the front-month futures contract rolled over to December, the time-related premium created a spread of roughly 1.5%, or approximately $60–$70, between futures and spot prices. More importantly, futures have already broken out of the descending channel that had been in place since the beginning of the year, while spot gold has yet to make a similar breakout. In the spot market, the key resi

Forex reflects the strength of economic activities, but short-term fluctuations are event-driven, especially when investors have consistent expectationsChinese Yuan began to strengthen at the end of November. The exchange rate of US dollar against offshore RMB once again returned to below "7" after three months, and once rose above 6.95. $HKEX USD/CNH - main 2212(CNHmain)$ $HKEX USD/CNH - main 2212(CNHmain)$ Reasons for rapid appreciationFirst, the reopening promotion of China's domestic economic recovery.In November, the Chinese government introduced a series of measures to stabilize growth, including 20 measures to optimize epidemic prevention and control. In December,