Last night, I hosted a futures livestream on Tiger’s platform to discuss shifts in the U.S. dollar cycle. We explored whether it was time to buy the dip in gold, along with trading ideas for currencies, crude oil, and U.S. equities. If you missed the livestream, you can watch the replay here >> 點樣用一個策略交易油價波動？認識價差交易策略 Below, I have organized the key takeaways and trading views from the session by topic. For those who did not have time to attend, this should provide a quick overview of my current market outlook. First, a brief introduction to my background: Here are the key views I shared during the session: In this livestream,

This week, the dominant cross-asset pricing driver shifted from geopolitical risk premia to a U.S. rates shock. As Middle East supply disruption risks eased at the margin, crude oil retreated sharply from its mid-month high. Meanwhile, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield jumped 30 basis points to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Oil’s decline did little to ease pressure on long-end yields, suggesting that the latest rate surge was driven mainly by a widening term premium and mounting Treasury supply pressure. With elevated rates and tighter liquidity expectations weighing on markets, equities, industrial metals, and precious metals all came under broad pressure. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$

Weekly Report: Key Views Hello everyone, and welcome to another edition of our Macro Strategy Weekly. Each issue features market strategy insights from selected contributors with relevant professional expertise. We also track how their views perform each week. Here is a preview of this week’s key ideas: 1. Near Term Direction for US Equities Remains Unclear, Pending CPI and TSMC Earnings The baseline scenario for US equities this week remains consolidation near current highs. A downside break is the next most likely outcome, followed by a move to new highs and a higher trading range. All three scenarios remain possible. Easing diplomatic tensions ahead of the election should support market stability and may delay a larger correction, although a modest near term pullback remains a risk. The

CFTC Data: What It Is, Why It Matters and What to Watch The CFTC publishes its Commitments of Traders report each week. Known as the COT report, it is a key gauge of positioning across global futures markets. Its main value lies in showing which investor groups are driving price action. Market moves ultimately reflect competition among different types of capital. CFTC data makes these forces visible by breaking positions down by trader category. The CFTC divides market positions into three main categories: Non-commercial: Speculative traders, mainly hedge funds and CTAs, that seek to profit from price moves. They are the most responsive and directional market participants. Commercial: Companies that use futures to hedge business risks. Their positions primarily reflect risk

This week, the key pricing driver across major asset classes shifted from geopolitical risk premiums to a US rates shock. Oil prices retreated sharply from their mid-month peak as concerns over Middle East supply disruptions eased. Meanwhile, the 10-year US Treasury yield rose 30 basis points over the week to 5.26%, its highest level since June 2007. Falling oil prices failed to halt the rise in long-term yields, suggesting that term premiums and Treasury supply pressures had become the main drivers. As a result, equities, industrial metals and precious metals came under broad pressure.  $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金2612(MGC2612)$

The encouraging directional signal from cryptocurrencies during FOMC week did not last long. Although the Nasdaq reached a new all-time high, most risk assets did not confirm the move. Worse still, long-term bond yields also hit new highs, clearly conflicting with the fundamental reasoning behind our earlier expectations. Judging by the credibility of these breakouts, the bond market may prove the more reliable signal if there is no outside intervention. That means we need to be more cautious about the possibility that the turning point could arrive sooner than expected. $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$ $BlackRock Multi-Sector Income Tr(BIT)$

The much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision came and went last week, with the 25-basis-point move ultimately causing little market disruption. Following the intraday and weekly tug-of-war between bulls and bears, the short-term outlook has become broadly clear: risk assets are likely to maintain their current choppy upward trend over the next one to two months. Whether it is gold, where our order narrowly missed being filled by just a few dollars, or U.S. equity indices, which remain near their highs, pullbacks should continue to offer opportunities to buy in the near term. $Gold - main 2612(GCmain)$ $E-Micro Gold - Dec 2026(MGC2612)$

The market is currently pricing in a 25-basis-point initial rate hike with a high degree of confidence, and this expectation has already been largely reflected in equity prices. The main drivers are inflationary pressure from higher energy prices and Waller’s relatively hawkish remarks. $美国原油ETF(USO)$ $WTI原油主连 2611(CLmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2611(MCLmain)$ This would mark the first rate hike in years, against the backdrop of energy-driven inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict.$布油现金主连 2612(BZmain)$

This week’s macro focus was the Fed’s September meeting. On September 16, the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike in more than three years, after markets had priced in more than 92% odds. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5.0266%, widening the 10-year/3-month spread to 89 basis points. Meanwhile, escalating Middle East tensions lifted Brent above $109 a barrel and drove WTI up about 9.6% for the week. Higher yields and geopolitical risk weighed on U.S. equities, with the Dow down 1.56% and the S&P 500 off 0.78%. Commodities diverged: crude gained nearly 10%, while copper and aluminum each fell about 1%. Gold lost 1.4% and silver fell more than 5%, extending precious metals’ losing streak to three weeks. As of the close on September 16, 2026, the week

Disclaimer: The views expressed below are personal opinions only and do not constitute investment advice. They are provided for informational purposes only. Last night, I shared my views in Tiger’s futures livestream following the Federal Reserve’s overnight rate hike. With the decision now behind us, markets have entered a critical phase of testing whether the negative catalyst has been fully priced in. The discussion covered the real drivers behind the rate decision, the outlook for future policy, long-dated U.S. Treasury yields as the key market gauge, and trading views on crypto assets, gold, U.S. equities, crude oil, and foreign exchange. For those who missed the session, the replay is available>>

After rallying in August, gold has pulled back to the midpoint of that advance, with neither bulls nor bears gaining a clear upper hand. Technically, prices remain confined to the prior consolidation range, leaving room for either a breakout or a breakdown in the near term. The question is not whether gold must rise or fall, but whether post-FOMC macro moves can force a break from the range. $黃金主連 2612(GCmain)$ $微黃金主連 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黃金主連 2612(1OZmain)$ $黃金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$ FOMC Surprise Drives Near-Term Pricing, With Real Yields and the Do