Fund flows and inventory changes are key to understanding major asset classes. Flows reveal allocation preferences, while inventories offer clues to commodity supply, demand and delivery conditions. We examine fund flows, Treasury yields, and inventories and positioning in crude oil, gold and silver. These help assess buying support and changes in supply and demand, informing the market outlook.
As of November 12, the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.10%, up 24 basis points from November 6. Long-duration bond valuations remain under pressure. The latest weekly fund data show ETF creations offsetting equity and bond mutual fund redemptions, leaving combined net inflows. However, the reporting period ended November 4, so it excludes the subsequent repricing of interest rates. U.S. commercial crude inventories rebuilt from low levels, while tightness at the Cushing delivery hub eased. COMEX gold inventories continued to decline, and silver stocks also contracted in the latest week. Positioning showed silver longs rebuilding alongside an increase in gold shorts. Watch whether yields stabilize, ETF demand holds, and these inventory and positioning changes persist.
Major assets’ week-to-date performance as of the November 12, 2026 close, Eastern Time:
Figure 1. Bar Chart of Asset Price Changes (%)
With macro expectations shifting repeatedly, prices alone offer an incomplete picture of market drivers. Inventories better capture physical supply and demand, while flows reveal allocation preferences. We therefore examine both across U.S. equities, Treasuries, crude oil, copper, aluminum, gold and silver.
ETF Creations Offset Mutual Fund Outflows as Rising Yields Widen the 10-Year Spread Over Three-Month Bills
The Investment Company Institute (ICI), founded in 1940, is a leading U.S. fund industry association. Its coverage represents roughly 98% of assets held by U.S. funds registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940. Its flow data are widely regarded as an authoritative measure of U.S. mutual fund subscriptions and redemptions.
ICI also publishes long-running statistics on U.S. and global regulated fund assets and flows. Consistent methodology and broad coverage make its data widely cited by brokerages, research firms and financial media.
ICI’s weekly report, released November 11, covers the week ended November 4. Equity mutual fund outflows totaled $18.11 billion, down 21.7% from the previous week. Bond mutual fund outflows rose 4.1% to $11.53 billion. Equity redemption pressure eased, while bond fund outflows persisted.
Equity and bond ETFs recorded net issuance of $35.54 billion and $13.89 billion, respectively. Including ETFs, equity products recorded net inflows of $17.43 billion. Bond products recorded $2.36 billion in net inflows.
ETF creations therefore offset mutual fund redemptions, indicating continued allocation to equities and bonds through ETFs. Mutual fund outflows alone cannot be taken as evidence of a broad withdrawal from these markets.
ICI’s September monthly report, published October 29, showed $132.24 billion in net outflows from long-term mutual funds. This was 40.6% higher than in August. ETF net issuance totaled $141.74 billion, while money market funds recorded net outflows of $48.97 billion. Flows diverged across investment vehicles, offering limited evidence of a simple rotation back into cash.
Figure 2. U.S. Fund Net Flows: Equity and Bond Funds. Source: ICI.
As of November 12, Eastern Time, the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.10%, while the three-month yield was 4.32%. They had risen 24 and 13 basis points, respectively, since November 6. The 10-year spread over three-month bills widened from 67 to 78 basis points, consistent with “bear steepening.”
The 30-year yield rose 17 basis points to 5.43%. However, the two-year yield rose 35 basis points to 4.86% over the same period. As a result, the 10-year spread over the two-year yield narrowed from 35 to 24 basis points. Curve changes were therefore uneven across maturities. The adjustment also included substantial repricing at the short and intermediate ends of the curve.
Figure 3. U.S. 10-Year and Three-Month Treasury Yields. Source: U.S. Department of the Treasury.
The November 11 weekly report shows ETF creations provided strong support during the week ended November 4. Combined equity and bond products retained net inflows. By November 12, however, long-term yields had risen again, keeping existing long-duration bonds under valuation pressure.
Because the flow data predate this yield increase, we cannot yet determine whether it triggered another wave of redemptions. Stabilizing yields would help ease pressure on bond funds. If yields keep rising, watch whether ETF creations continue to offset mutual fund outflows.
$S&P 500 ETF (SPY)$ $S&P 500 Index (.SPX)$ $E-mini S&P 500 Continuous Futures 2606 (ESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 Continuous Futures 2606 (MESmain)$ $Micro E-mini S&P 500 Futures 2606 (MES2606)$ $E-mini Dow Continuous Futures 2606 (YMmain)$ $Micro E-mini Dow Continuous Futures 2606 (MYMmain)$ $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI)$ $Dow Jones ETF (DIA)$ $Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 Continuous Futures 2606 (NQmain)$ $Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC)$ $Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 Continuous Futures 2606 (MNQmain)$ $Micro 10-Year Treasury Yield Continuous Futures 2605 (10Ymain)$ $10-Year Treasury Note Continuous Futures 2606 (ZNmain)$
Inventory Updates Across Key Assets
1. Commercial Crude Stocks Rebuild as Cushing Tightness Eases
According to EIA data, U.S. commercial crude inventories rose 4.657 million barrels to 414.4 million barrels. The figures cover the week ended November 6, 2026 and exclude the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).
The increase ended five consecutive weekly draws. Stocks remained 4.5% below the five-year seasonal average. They were also 3.1% below year-earlier levels and 3.6% below levels from two years earlier.
After falling from this year’s high, commercial inventories remain in a relatively low range. This week’s build reversed only 26.5% of the previous five weeks’ cumulative draw. A sustained restocking trend remains unconfirmed.
$WTI Crude Oil Continuous Futures 2610 (CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil Continuous Futures 2610 (QMmain)$ $United States Oil Fund (USO)$ $WTI Crude Oil Continuous Futures 2607 (CLmain)$ $E-mini Crude Oil Continuous Futures 2607 (QMmain)$ $Micro WTI Crude Oil Continuous Futures 2607 (MCLmain)$
Figure 4. U.S. Commercial Crude Inventories Versus the Five-Year Range.
Cushing inventories rose to 27.356 million barrels, up 106,000 on the week. This was the second consecutive increase, though smaller than the previous week’s 280,000-barrel build.
Following a strong recovery from summer lows, stocks have recently fluctuated around 27 million barrels. Current inventories are 9.9% above the five-year seasonal average. They are also 21.5% above year-earlier levels and 8.6% above levels from two years earlier. The previous inventory shortfall has therefore been repaired, substantially easing structural tightness at the delivery hub.
Figure 5. Cushing Crude Inventories Versus the Five-Year Range.
Cushing accounted for just 2.3% of the week’s commercial crude build. Most restocking therefore occurred elsewhere.
Commercial stockpiles remain low while Cushing inventories are relatively ample. From an inventory perspective, low total stocks still offer some support for oil prices. However, Cushing’s recovery has weakened the tightness previously supporting front-month premiums. Watch whether commercial inventory builds continue, and assess supply and demand alongside refinery throughput and net imports.
2. Precious Metals: COMEX Stocks Fall as Silver Longs Rebuild and Gold Shorts Rise
As of November 12, 2026, COMEX gold and silver inventories stood at 22.9302 million and 332 million troy ounces, respectively. They declined 0.29% and 0.89% on the week. Gold stocks were 37.0% below their year-to-date high, while silver stocks were 26.1% below theirs.
Gold inventories continued to make new year-to-date lows. Silver stocks fell again after fluctuating below their high, but remain above this year’s low.
Positioning data as of November 3 show silver non-commercial longs continuing to rebuild from low levels. Gold non-commercial shorts also increased, pointing to divergent speculative positioning. Falling exchange inventories alone cannot confirm physical shortages or stronger buying interest. Positioning and price trends are needed to interpret these changes.
$Gold Continuous Futures 2612 (GCmain)$ $Micro Gold Futures 2612 (MGC2612)$ $1-Ounce Gold Continuous Futures 2612 (1OZmain)$ $Silver Continuous Futures 2612 (SImain)$ $Silver Continuous Futures 2612 (SImain)$ $100-Ounce Silver Continuous Futures 2612 (SICmain)$
Figure 6. COMEX Gold Inventories (Troy Ounces)
Figure 7. COMEX Silver Inventories (Troy Ounces)
Gold non-commercial short positions rose to 41,000 contracts as of November 3, 2026. This was up 10.0% on the week, 31.8% from September 29 and 47.8% from this year’s low.
Shorts have generally rebuilt since bottoming in mid-September, with recent bearish trading strengthening. However, exposure remains near the 11.5th percentile of readings since September 2021. Short positioning is still historically low, with little evidence of crowding.
Figure 8. COMEX Gold Non-Commercial Long and Short Positions (Contracts)
Silver non-commercial long positions recovered to 37,000 contracts, rising for a fifth consecutive week. Since September 29, positions have increased by 3,500 contracts, or 10.5%, reversing the earlier reduction trend.
Exposure remains 21.9% below this year’s high and near the 12.6th percentile of readings since September 2021. Bullish sentiment has improved, though overall positioning remains low. Silver’s recent pattern is best described as “longs rebuilding from lows, with sentiment improving at the margin.” Watch whether these additions continue.
Figure 9. COMEX Silver Non-Commercial Long and Short Positions (Contracts)
Tracking Fund Flows and Inventory Fundamentals
Fund flows and inventories remain divergent this week. Equity and bond mutual funds continue to see net outflows, while ETF creations provide support, leaving combined net inflows. The 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 5.10%, keeping long-duration bond valuations under pressure.
Commercial crude inventories ended five consecutive weekly draws but remain 4.5% below the five-year seasonal average. Cushing’s tightness has eased substantially. COMEX gold and silver inventories both fell in the latest week. Silver longs are rebuilding from low levels, while gold shorts have increased.
Next week, watch whether Treasury yields stabilize and ETF creations continue to absorb redemptions. The latest flow data exclude the current rise in yields, so its effects still need confirmation. For oil, watch whether inventory builds continue. Low stockpiles still provide support, but Cushing’s recovery has weakened the case for front-month premiums. In precious metals, monitor whether silver longs continue to rebuild and gold shorts increase further.
We’ll see what next week brings.
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