Despite greater stability in the bond market last week, key market bellwethers such as Bitcoin and gold showed signs of downside breakdowns. US equities also reversed sharply from their highs on the weekly chart. With oil approaching its previous peak and a critical market window drawing closer, investors should remain alert to the risk of a major correction.
Markets also faced pressure two weeks ago, although the weakness was not yet broad based. Conditions have since changed as Bitcoin and Ethereum failed to sustain their rallies, while gold extended its decline and broke below $4,000. Risk assets now face renewed pressure from a potential broad based selloff.
$比特币(BTC.USD.HKCC)$ $比特币(BTC.USD.CC)$ $CME比特币主连 2610(BTCmain)$ $比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$ $黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$ $微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $白银主连 2612(SImain)$ $微白银主连 2612(SILmain)$ $100盎司白银主连 2612(SICmain)$
US equities have remained the most resilient risk asset and previously showed a clear bullish trend, but key market leaders are beginning to weaken. Nvidia, one of the main bellwethers, has now declined for three consecutive weeks. A confirmed break below the $207 to $208 support zone could open a test of the $164 low. If this area is breached this month, the monthly chart could form a bearish engulfing reversal. Nvidia has produced two similar patterns near monthly highs over the past 12 months. Both eventually resumed their advance after consolidation, although they also revealed clear disagreement between bulls and bears. Any fresh macro warning or industry specific shock could trigger forced selling among crowded long positions and accelerate the decline. Several major technology companies will report earnings this week, so their results deserve close attention.
$英伟达(NVDA)$ $1.5倍做空NVDA ETF-Tradr(NVDS)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $标普500ETF(SPY)$ $SP500指数主连 2612(ESmain)$ $微型SP500指数主连 2612(MESmain)$ $标普500波动率指数(VIX)$
$纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $NQ100指数主连 2612(NQmain)$ $微型NQ100指数主连 2612(MNQmain)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2612(YMmain)$ $微型道琼斯指数主连 2612(MYMmain)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$
The technical outlook for the indexes is also deteriorating. The Nasdaq reached a record high before reversing sharply, creating the early structure of a bull trap. Bulls attempted to regain control last week but produced only a long upper wick. The 29,000 area is a key support platform on the daily chart. The Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged this week. If this anticipated positive catalyst fails to lift US equities after the decision, further downside would become more likely. A break below 28,816 this month would also form a bearish engulfing pattern on the monthly chart. After a similar candlestick formation in the past, US equities experienced a sustained correction lasting about a year, also during a Trump presidency.
Rising crude oil prices are another source of macro and geopolitical pressure on US equities. We have repeatedly noted the possibility of renewed US military action against Iran around the fourth quarter midterm elections. Market rumors now suggest that the United States and Israel have developed specific plans for another round of strikes, although they reportedly do not involve a ground war. Under a hypothetical scenario in which conflict resumes, a decisive confrontation with Iran could become a major strategic objective during Trump’s term. If this scenario materializes, oil prices could return to historical highs. Uncontrolled inflation could then trigger a broader market collapse across most asset classes, with oil falling sharply only after reaching elevated levels.
$美国原油ETF(USO)$ $马拉松原油(MPC)$ $WTI原油主连 2612(CLmain)$ $小原油主连 2612(QMmain)$ $微型WTI原油主连 2612(MCLmain)$
Starting this week, we will look for opportunities to short US equity indexes. The longer term gradual bull market remains intact, but the attractive potential risk reward and possibility of a trend reversal justify a small position with asymmetric upside.
For specific trades, the Ethereum short entered at 2,645 was closed in two equal portions at 2,380 and 2,500. The average profit was $205 per contract.
For US equities, place limit sell orders on the Nasdaq at 30,100 and 31,000, with a stop at 31,650 and a target at 27,250.
For the euro short, the strategy will be adjusted again this week. Place limit sell orders at 1.1340 and 1.1460, with a stop at 1.1580 and a target at 1.0900.
For crude oil, rising prices have reduced the chance of execution at lower levels. Cancel the pending orders for now and wait for new price developments and opportunities.
P.S. Once a trade reaches its first target, the stop will automatically move to the entry price. Any adjustments after execution will be provided in future updates.
$A50指数主连 2610(CNmain)$ $恒生指数主连 2610(HSImain)$ $恒生科技指数主连 2610(HTImain)$ $欧元主连 2612(EURmain)$ $欧元指数(EURindex.FOREX)$ $日元主连 2612(JPYmain)$
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