Although domestic investors are focusing on chinese stock market, which opened today, as external observers and traders, we are always paying attention to the changes in the futures market. During the National Day holiday, the performance of crude oil was remarkable, but it was expected. Relatively speaking, the rise of the U.S. dollar index, which had been falling before, after the interest rate cut is also worthy of attention.We have talked about the logic of the rebound of the US dollar before the interest rate decision. A very important point is that in the latest round of interest rate hike-interest rate cut cycle, the foreign exchange market reflects the trend of expected rise/fall and reverse operation after landing. The fact that the Federal Reserve raises interest rates ahead of t

Gold prices have reached record highs recently, and some market participants believe that,A tactical pullback may be on the horizon and see it as an opportunity to add positions.However, UBS released a report saying that although the overall bullish outlook for gold is solid, the market may need to catch its breath.UBS analyst JoniTeves pointed out in the report that the consolidation period at this time is beneficial to the market, especially if it allows some weak bulls to exit the market and allows long-term investors to enter the market at a better level.Generally speaking, September is a relatively low season for gold prices.Because during this month, the dollar tends to perform strongly, yields rise, and the stock market performs weakly.However, this year's situation is different. Th

The long-awaited interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve finally landed in September. With the determination of the path of further easing, the main trading logic for the rest of the year has become clear: maintain the old thinking until before and after the election.Why can we maintain the existing trading ideas after the interest rate cut? On the one hand, judging from market feedback, risky assets have maintained a good trend, including the vane of USD/JPY, which is also a bottom out. This means that the trading pattern of the Biden administration has not changed. On the other hand, after the interest rate cut, Powell gave a "forward-looking guidance" at the press conference that he would cut interest rates twice during the year, each time by 25 basis points, which laid the foundation

Earlier this year I wrote a series of educational notes on using valuation signals to help navigate market cycles, and after a couple of conversations and comments I got to wondering what it would look like if you showed the average path the stock market took around valuation-extreme tops and bottoms.As a point of clarity, first I want to compare and contrast two types of market peaks.The August 2000 peak was a classic valuation-extreme top, a bubble; clear excess and extreme expensive valuations… just waiting to be popped (by rising interest rates).The October 2007 peak by contrast was *not* a valuation-extreme top. Across a number of valuation metrics the market looked reasonable, even cheap e.g. on a forward PE basis. Instead, that peak was the product of rising rates triggering an econ

Since mid-September, domestic and foreign gold prices have repeatedly hit record highs, exceeding US $2,600/oz, continuing the strong bull market since the fourth quarter of last year. As of September 17, the COMEX gold December contract has increased by more than 20% annually (see the chart below), and the full-year increase in 2023 is only 9.8%. This is also the third consecutive year of increase since 2022.The Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point interest rate cut, which is an important node for gold prices. In the short term, we need to pay attention to the risk of callback after the interest rate cut is favorable. However, in the long run, after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates, the decline in the real interest rate of the U.S. dollar stimulated the rise in investment dema

Oil prices have fallen below the $70 level for the first time since the end of last year. Although they have not yet broken through the low support of nearly two years, their vigilant effect cannot be ignored. Coupled with the fact that the yen has not shown signs of returning to weakness, we may still have to make some preparations for tail risks.As we all know, crude oil, as the king of commodities, has long been highly correlated with the economy. Although under the control of the Biden administration, oil prices have become a range-bound variety in the past two years, but the market cannot run within a range forever. With the new president on the horizon, this kind of breakthrough will come sooner or later. However, if it breaks down before the general election, it may have different r

At the beginning of September, U.S. stocks fell again. It is worth noting that the Nasdaq index did not rise to the record high set on July 10, driven by the performance of large technology companies exceeding expectations in the second quarter and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. We believe that the market's hidden worries about U.S. economic growth have affected investor confidence. In addition, the uncertainty of the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, the increasing capital expenditure burden of U.S. technology companies and the uncertainty of fiscal policy brought by the general election have also led to the short-term weakness of U.S. stocks, and there is a great risk of adjustment in U.S. stocks in the short term.There are hidden worries in

As the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the first time this year and the US election at the end of the year approaches, the recent trend of major assets has become increasingly lackluster. This opportunity, which seems to be brewing to break through the market, is actually not highly operable. Coupled with the lack of trading cost performance of several varieties with significant trends, we tend to see more and move less at this stage, which may be a better choice.First of all, on the three carriages mentioned earlier, gold is already very close to the target price expected at the beginning of the year (2575 +). If you get on the bus now to do long positions, it is easy to waste time at high positions or be washed away due to shocks. Although the trend of U.S. stocks is still good,

The biggest negative news for the crude oil market is getting closer and closer.Since the unified production cuts brought about by COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, it may be loosened for the first time in October 2024. Saudi Arabia and Russia, the main members of OPEC +, announced at the OPEC + meeting in June that they would gradually relax the voluntary reduction of crude oil production in the future.The voluntary reduction of crude oil production will be approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, accounting for 20% of the total reduction. Although the relaxation of production cuts will only be gradually released, it has brought a lot of impacts to confidence in crude oil market demand. Therefore, last Friday night, as soon as the rumors were released, the oil price immediately hit a new low l

There is a major trading opportunity for U.S. soybeans every four years. This rule has not changed in the past 20-30 years. This four-year rule is caused by the alternating cycle of weather.The last important bottom of U.S. soybeans appeared in August 2020, which happened to be four years later in August 2024. Therefore, there is no reason for us not to pay attention to the important bottom strategic opportunities that may appear in U.S. soybeans.Technical characteristics of the current bottoming out of US soybeansThe market of U.S. soybeans is usually based on the monthly line. Whether it rises or falls, it generally fluctuates unilaterally for 3-4 consecutive months. However, since June this year, it has fallen for 6-7-8 months. That is to say, September has entered the technical time fo

A sideways oscillating state is often just for the next start. Now there are two assets that the whole world will pay attention to are in this kind of continuous shock and sideways trading. Will they get out of the real market in a short time?The first variety with a relatively short cycle is Bitcoin, which has been very red and extremely red in the last year. However, with the doubling of the market and record highs, the currency price has shown a flag-shaped consolidation pattern since March this year, which has been almost half a year. We have compared the performance of the U.S. stock index and gold before, and we expect that the market will reach a new high after the consolidation of an A-B-C model move. Unfortunately, things backfired, and the performance of the market was tangled, w

$NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2409(NQmain)$ Despite being in a Bullish zone, the market is currently in a correction trend, displaying a descending rectangle pattern with a higher proportion of downward movements expected over the next 10 days.Current Market Situation:NASDAQ Closing Price: 17,874.2 (+1.45%)Trend Zone: BullishInvestment Position: Buy and HoldCumulative Return: 4.0% over 8 daysLong-term Strategy:The market is in a Bullish zone, which includes an Uptrend with strong upward movements and a Correction Trend with temporary downward fluctuations.The strategy f