The market’s greatest challenge this week is that several seemingly independent trading themes are beginning to interact with one another: the yen has reached a six-month high; expectations of a Bank of Japan rate hike are building; global bond yields are broadly rising; signs are emerging of a rebound in China’s crude-oil demand; and expectations for Federal Reserve policy have once again been unsettled by comments from Donald Trump. When these variables move simultaneously, markets rarely deliver a clean, smooth one-way trend. Instead, they are more likely to enter a high-volatility, range-bound phase marked by repeated swings in both directions. The key variable to watch now is whether the yen can make a further near-term directional break. This matters not only for the U.S. dollar inde
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Selling Puts Remains My Preferred Strategy：Will Tokyo Set the Market’s Direction This Week?
Selling Puts Remains My Preferred Strategy：Will Tokyo Set the Market’s Direction This Week?
Why I Think Going Long U.S. Stocks and Gold Ahead of Jackson Hole Isn't a Good Idea
I believe most market participants currently recognize that U.S. equities are at an extremely delicate point of equilibrium. Technically, the S&P 500 has already fallen below its 20-day moving average, and bearish sentiment has intensified sharply. At the fundamental level, however, the fragile balance among U.S. Treasuries, U.S. equities, confidence in the U.S. dollar, and inflation expectations remains unchanged. The Treasury’s expansion of its long-term Treasury buyback program may appear to stabilize the market, but in the face of rapidly rising debt and elevated interest costs, the measure looks more like an attempt to buy time than to solve the underlying problem. $标普500(.SPX)$
Why I Think Going Long U.S. Stocks and Gold Ahead of Jackson Hole Isn't a Good Idea
High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market
The anticipated pullback may already be underway: Three strategies for navigating today’s choppy market The U.S. equity market is currently in a highly sensitive, tightly balanced high-level volatility regime. Previously, cooling macro data—including softer-than-expected CPI and PPI readings—helped ease inflation expectations and created an exceptionally favorable backdrop for U.S. equities. Supported by these conditions, the S&P 500 continued advancing and reached fresh highs. However, renewed geopolitical tensions this week have disrupted the previous calm, as a sudden rise in crude oil prices has altered the market landscape once again. At this macroeconomic crossroads, characterized by an unusually large numbe
High-Level Pullback Begins？Three Strategies for a Choppy Market
Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉
Recent capital markets can be summed up in one word: conflicted. On one side, gold has charted an entirely independent course despite the pressure of high interest rates. On the other, U.S. equities have repeatedly swung between earnings support and the risks associated with elevated valuations. Against this macro backdrop, how should investors construct an appropriate trading strategy? Today, we will examine the underlying logic behind gold and expectations for a range-bound U.S. equity market, and take an in-depth look at how the market is operating at present. Pay Attention to the Unusual Divergence Between Gold and U.S. Real Rates For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-yieldin
Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉
The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay
The first week of each month is usually the most important, as the latest non-farm payrolls data are released during this period. These figures often set the tone for the market throughout the rest of the month. This is particularly true when the market is highly sensitive to interest-rate expectations, as the release can quickly shift investor preferences. For this reason, I usually adopt a relatively cautious stance during the first week of the month. The non-farm payrolls report released this month significantly exceeded market expectations. While the market had expected an increase of 80,000 jobs, the actual figure showed a decline of 23,000 jobs. This dealt a blow to expectations of a stronger US economy. Meanwhile, the probability of a rate hike in September fell directly from 60% to
The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Review of Last Week's Strategies and Profitability Welcome to this week's Macro Strategy Weekly. As is our tradition, let's first review the outcomes of the strategies discussed in last week's report: Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat Strategy Contributor: @程俊Dream US Equities (Nasdaq): Last week's limit orders were not filled, but we are keeping them active. We maintain limit buy orders for the Nasdaq at 26,080 and 24,720 (half position each), with a stop-loss set below 23,000, and target prices at 30,500 and 33,800. Gold: We anticipated a rebound last week but lacked an ideal entry point, so we pr
Weekly Macro Strategy: Rebound vs. Reversal in US Equities？Strategies for a Range-Bound US Market💹
Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally
The low-side bid we had kept sitting under the Nasdaq for two weeks was never filled. With the index stabilising and rebounding off 27,000, and with several other headline developments turning, the correction that has run for more than a month may now be close to its end. What we do expect from here is dispersion: the divide between what stays strong and what has already topped out should become considerably more visible. Set against the S&P and the Dow, the Nasdaq was clearly the US index that gave back the most in this round of correction. Gains and losses share the same source, so it is no surprise that AI and technology names — the hardest-hit group — were what dragged the index lower. In practice, though, the pullback did not even reach the 61.8% retracement. That is an indirect r
Stock Market Correction May Be Over, but It’s Too Early to Call a Rally
Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?
The first week of August is formally here. In terms of how the calendar falls, the opening week of a month tends to have an outsized effect on volatility in US trading, chiefly because the US non-farm payrolls report — the release markets watch most closely — lands early in the month. In a market as rate-sensitive as the current one, payrolls feed straight into rate expectations and therefore into a wider trading range. On top of that, the weekend's US–Iran flare-up has left the progress of the “so-called” 60-day negotiation window genuinely hard to read, and that is another source of instability in the market right now. A market like this, however, is actually easier to profit from — provided you approach it with a relatively short-term mindset. $Inve
Will NFP Shift Rate Hike Expectations?Is a New Wave of Market Volatility Coming?
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Over the past week, major asset classes delivered a strikingly uneven set of returns. Crude oil took first place with a 10.64% gain, silver followed with 4.04%, copper and gold posted modest gains of 1.10% and 0.81% respectively, while aluminium fell 0.73% — the only commodity to close lower. Against that broad commodity strength, U.S. equity index futures retreated across the board. Both of the week's commodity narratives point to the Middle East. On crude: renewed U.S.–Iran confrontation, a Houthi strike that shut in 400,000 barrels per day of capacity at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, Red Sea tanker traffic falling to multi-month lows, and OPEC+ preparing to stop raising output targets together pushed up the pricing of supply-disruption risk. On aluminium: according to Reuters, war in t
Futures Weekly：Crude Oil Rises as Inventories Build; Gold Stays Weak Despite Tight Supply
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
First, let's review how last week's strategies performed. Recap: Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound Review of Last Week's Strategies and P&L Cheng Jun (程俊): Watch the Nasdaq closely. The most recent weekly low at 28,227 is initial support; once it breaks, the summer market will most likely shift into a high-level, range-bound pattern, with bullish momentum and market sentiment weakening in tandem. Result: The trade was not triggered last week. This week that key level was broken, marking the inflection point into a weaker market. Whether to consider going short — see this week's strategy commentary below. Gan Canrong (甘灿荣): Strategy reference: consider selli
Macro Strategy Weekly: How to trade Fed-Week Volatility and the Crack-Spread Retreat
Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options
Next week brings the hardest-to-call FOMC meeting in a long while. The reason: the recent sharp rebound in oil, compounded by events such as a potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and restrictions on Red Sea shipping, has left the market with little confidence in how inflation expectations will evolve. If inflation persists, expectations for a Fed rate hike will heat up sharply — and could even become reality as early as the July meeting. Yet Trump remains firmly committed to rate cuts: a hike could trigger a sizable equity correction ahead of the midterm elections and, in turn, hurt his party at the polls. For this week's meeting, therefore, I lean toward the Fed standing pat — but with more hawkish language, nudging the market to give up its easing bets and get its “vaccination” in
Oil's Rebound Makes the July Fed the Hardest to Call: How to Play Defense and Counter With Options
Gold Approaches Crucial Inflection Point: All Eyes on This Price Level for a Potential Rally
Gold has been drifting near its lows for about four weeks since bottoming in late June. Although the bulls' earlier rebound attempts made limited headway, the technical structure suggests the probability of a larger-degree rebound in the next phase still exists. This week's earnings season and the Fed's rate decision are expected to be decisive for overall market risk appetite. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro QQQ(TQQQ)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF(QQQM)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)
Gold Approaches Crucial Inflection Point: All Eyes on This Price Level for a Potential Rally
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Following last week's historic sell-off, the U.S. stock market—particularly the semiconductor sector—is standing at an extremely critical crossroads. It is no exaggeration to say that if the market takes even one more step downward, it will likely trigger a substantial, weekly-level decline. However, if the market can hold its ground against the current downtrend and stabilize, a phased recovery is not far out of reach, especially if tensions in the US-Iran conflict continue to cool. Therefore, this week's price action is of paramount importance to U.S. equities. At this critical juncture, since we cannot precisely forecast geopolitical developments, relying on technical analysis and real capital flow data to gauge market sentiment becomes essential. Today, Owen's analysis will delve deep
Has the Semiconductor Sell-Off Bottomed? Smart Money May Pivots to Gold!
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
Last week U.S. equities posted a weekly decline: the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) fell 1.54% for the week, but sector performance diverged sharply. Energy rose 4.72%, leading the entire market; Real Estate, Consumer and Financials also gained; Technology plunged more than 5%, becoming the main drag on the index. Capital is rotating out of high-valuation sectors into Energy, Real Estate and defensive sectors in search of internal rebalancing — and the sectors that had been leading are starting to loosen. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$
Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound
U.S.–Iran War Reignites and Risk Returns: Is Now the Time to Buy Gold?
After last week's CPI print, inflation expectations eased slightly, while the U.S.–Iran conflict flared up again and the previously-open strait was once more suspended. That said, this kind of escalation seems to occur almost every weekend, and by the time financial markets open it is quickly shrugged off—so I would not advise anyone to be overly anxious; wait until the market opens and it will speak for itself. Faced with this kind of murky, hard-to-read news flow, the best trading approach is to consider the technical indicators alone, and then set the corresponding strategy based on those indicators. Chart: CCTV News — “U.S.–Iran clashes hit civilian facilities across several countries; Iran warns of an all-out offensive” (reported July 19, 2026) I. U.S. equity indices have flipped shor
U.S.–Iran War Reignites and Risk Returns: Is Now the Time to Buy Gold?
Cold CPI, Fading Rate-Hike Bets, a Dollar Teetering at 100.5: Has Gold's Rebound Window Opened?
Right after the latest CPI print, a market that looks calm on the surface may in fact be quietly brewing a turning point—and an opportunity. In this piece, Owen wants to talk about the topic that is probably on everyone's mind: has the moment to go long gold finally come? Let's lead with our core conclusion: gold is very likely to see a sizable rebound. The reason is that, with CPI unexpectedly cooling, the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes have already faded. The 2-year Treasury yield has broken below its uptrend, dragging the US Dollar Index into a bearish technical structure. Once the Dollar Index breaks its key level, a gold rebound could well be triggered. But this is only a “rebound,” not a “reversal”—to lock in this move steadily, we still have to strictly follow the discipli
Cold CPI, Fading Rate-Hike Bets, a Dollar Teetering at 100.5: Has Gold's Rebound Window Opened?
Weak Nonfarm, Fading Rate Hike Bets — Is Gold Ready for a Rebound?
The start of each month is usually the key window for the release of the U.S. non-farm payrolls (NFP) data, so at the beginning of every month many people tend to see sizable swings in their investment accounts. This is because the NFP data often reshapes the market's expectations for the future economy, which in turn changes the price direction of related financial products. Last week's NFP data came in contrary to market expectations: the market had originally anticipated a figure of more than 100,000 new jobs, but the actual result was an increase of only 57,000. A slowdown in job gains indicates that the economy is not as “hot” as expected, which reduces the necessity for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. As a result, since the data was released, the market has sharply lower
Weak Nonfarm, Fading Rate Hike Bets — Is Gold Ready for a Rebound?
Selling Puts in U.S. Stock Market May Remains Optimal; Beware Gold’s Final Leg Down
Our two prior key calls now appear to have largely played out: First, the pullback in U.S. equities from elevated levels would likely remain within an 8% range; second, crude oil had most likely topped, with WTI futures expected to retest the $65 level in the near term. Review：Oil Plunges, Undercurrents Thrive? June 19 Deal Could Flip — Option Strategy to Capture Time Value Red Alert! The Dollar Just Broke Out—How to Bulletproof Your Stock Portfolio Now！ Many market participants have attributed last night’s strong rebound in U.S. equities to Micron’s better-than-expected earnings. However, it is important to recognize that Micron’s results merely act
Selling Puts in U.S. Stock Market May Remains Optimal; Beware Gold’s Final Leg Down
Hormuz Blockaded Again？ The "Fight-and-Talk" Trading Strategy You Need Now！
Over the weekend, renewed exchanges of fire between Israel and Lebanon reignited tensions in the US-Iran negotiations. Iran announced that shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has plummeted to zero, effectively placing the strait under a de facto blockade and setting market nerves on edge once again. Absent any news of a negotiated settlement, crude oil is poised for a substantial rebound next week, though the outlook for other commodities and equity indices remains grim. With the US midterm elections approaching, a "fight-and-talk" dynamic will define future market action. The US is eager to restore navigation to lower oil prices and fulfill campaign promises, while Iran aims to leverage the strait's reopening to extract maximum economic concessions. Consequently, negotiations wi
Hormuz Blockaded Again？ The "Fight-and-Talk" Trading Strategy You Need Now！
Is the Inflation Rebound Just a False Spike?
This round of correction in the U.S. stock market has a very clear trigger: crude oil stayed at elevated levels for too long, pushing up U.S. inflation data. This, in turn, raised expectations of Federal Reserve rate hikes and led to an unexpected surge in U.S. Treasury yields. As a result, capital rotated from equities into bonds, and under the pressure of higher interest rates, U.S. stocks experienced profit-taking and mean reversion. $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2609(NQmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ $Micro E-mini Nasdaq 100 - Jun 2026(MNQ2606)$ $ProShares UltraPr
Is the Inflation Rebound Just a False Spike?