Last week, we were expecting the situation in the Middle East to stay within a relatively controllable range and, as a result, for financial markets to remain broadly stable. However, judging from last Friday’s and early this week’s surge in oil prices, even though there are still no clear signs that the war has formally widened, the risk of it spinning out of control is already on the table. If, at this critical juncture, Trump still cannot come up with a credible exit plan, both financial markets and geopolitics may be hit by a new tsunami. The impact of oil prices on the global financial system and on people’s daily lives via inflation is self-evident. Yet in just a little over a week, we’ve seen a 60% spike in prices, while the key Strait of Hormuz remains in a state of abnormal, semi‑

The US dollar experienced a rebound last week, prompting us to temporarily exit our previous long positions in the Euro. However, the fundamental factors underlying the dollar have not undergone any substantial changes. Therefore, we expect the magnitude and momentum of this rebound to be limited. We will closely monitor developments this week; if price action is favorable, we may once again seek suitable non-US currencies to go long. Analyzing the weekly chart of the dollar over the past few weeks reveals signs of a pause in its downward trend. Furthermore, last week's weekly closing price returned above a crucial new long-term trendline, indicating that range-bound consolidation and volatility are likely to unfold in the near term. As long as there is no bearish engulfing pattern this we

Since the crash last October, the weakness in crypto has not eased. With ETH breaking below 2,000 last week and BTC approaching the 60,000 level, the crypto complex has essentially been abandoned by the market. This also means its value as a leading indicator is no longer valid. After last week’s wide-range swings, precious metals are expected to enter a period of back-and-forth between bulls and bears.​ Using Bitcoin as the reference point, price broke below two key levels in a relatively short time: 100,000 and 80,000/75,000. The market’s rebound attempts have been feeble and did not even reach 100,000. Price has now fallen back to the lows from before Trump was elected; if this zone also breaks, there is basically open space below. This area also marks where many ETFs initially built po

U.S. equity indices have recurring time windows each year that deserve extra attention—February, May, August, and October—and the first week of February that just passed seems to have “worked” again in influencing U.S. equity indices. Think back to last year: U.S. equity indices formed a cyclical top during February, and then, on news that Trump would impose tariffs globally, they fell about 20% in a short period.​ That move also produced a near-10% single-day drop—an historical record in recent years.​ Even though the pace of tariff implementation later slowed and U.S. equity indices went on to make new highs, these kinds of sharp, fast pullbacks still caused many investors unnecessary panic and losses.​ This year, at the same time window, U.S. equity indices have again experienced a simi

Last Friday night, gold $黄金主连 2604(GCmain)$ and silve $白银主连 2603(SImain)$ r posted their largest single-day declines in history. Silver plunged as much as 35% in one day, nearly erasing all of its gains for the year in a single blow. Such extreme volatility far exceeded most investors’ expectations. However, readers who have been following my analysis should recall that I long ago characterized this silver rally as a “short squeeze”—a phenomenon not uncommon in futures markets (typically erupting in some commodity every 2–3 years). Since short squeezes are driven more by market positioning and sentiment than by fundamental supply-demand dynamics, they tend to unwind just as violentl

After a near-vertical rally, gold and silver were finally “punished” last Friday, with both plunging sharply in a single day. Silver, measured from its peak, even suffered a drawdown close to being cut in half. After such a violent round-trip, do ordinary investors still have a viable trading opportunity?​ From a volatility standpoint, the current environment is no longer suitable for the vast majority of retail and traditional precious-metals traders. Moves that used to take a full year can now happen in a single day or within a week. This kind of irrational volatility also means the old stop-loss logic and methods stop working. Whether you try to buy the dip or fade a rebound, there’s a high probability you’ll get stopped out. And if someone dares to skip a stop-loss to avoid getting wic