Hello everyone. It is time once again for the Macro Strategy Weekly Report. On a regular basis, we select contributors from the community with relevant professional qualifications to share a collection of market-strategy perspectives, and we track the subsequent performance of those strategy views each week.
Before starting this report, let us review the outcomes of the forecasts in our previous article. On July 21 this year, our Strategy Weekly Report published an analytical report titled:
《Macro Weekly Strategy: U.S. Stocks May Have Weathered the Worst — Don't Miss the Gold Rebound》
It received a large number of likes and shares at the time. As indicated by its title, the report forecast a rebound in gold and a moderation in the decline of U.S. equities. Two weeks later, we can see that both forecasts in the article have materialized accurately.
$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $纳指100ETF(QQQ)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $道琼斯(.DJI)$ $道琼斯指数主连 2609(YMmain)$ $道琼斯ETF(DIA)$ $黄金主连 2612(GCmain)$
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Now, let us move on to this week’s strategy-sharing session.
Summary of This Week’s Strategy Views
Outlook for U.S. equities: The recent pullback in U.S. equities was not caused by deteriorating fundamentals, but by passive repositioning, such as capital outflows and the liquidation of AI funds. A short-term “Wave B rebound” is now being triggered. However, the medium- to long-term outlook warrants a high degree of caution. As growth in AI-infrastructure capital expenditure is expected to peak in early 2025, the market is highly likely to face a “Wave C sell-off” from the second half of the year into next year.
Core gold thesis: Gold has now fully decoupled from its traditional seesaw relationship with U.S. real interest rates and is advancing independently. The core drivers are the strong base of purchases by global central banks and extreme safe-haven demand arising from the market’s concerns about U.S. sovereign debt. In the short term, however, gold faces very strong technical resistance at 4,415, where the 20-week moving average converges; indiscriminate chasing of the upside is not recommended.
Validation of the copper cycle: Copper’s price action has precisely validated the historical pattern of a cyclical low roughly every two years. The previously anticipated July–August rebound has fully materialized and set a new high for the current phase. We currently judge August to be copper’s high for the year. If U.S. equities enter a correction in September because of weakening growth or AI expectations, copper will most likely decline in tandem with the market.
Observations on This Week’s Market Conditions
Market: Technology and cyclical sectors advanced, while defensive assets came under relative pressure
From August 3 to August 7, 2026, the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) rose 3.51%. Eight of the 11 sectors gained and three declined: Information Technology (XLK) rose 7.20%, Materials (XLB) gained 4.82%, and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) advanced 3.25%; Energy (XLE) fell 3.44%, Utilities (XLU) declined 1.67%, and Real Estate (XLRE) slipped 0.20%.
$标普500ETF(SPY)$ $高科技指数ETF-SPDR(XLK)$ $材料ETF(XLB)$ $消费品指数ETF-SPDR可选消费品(XLY)$ $SPDR能源指数ETF(XLE)$
Compared with the previous week, SPY’s gain widened from 1.10% to 3.51%, while the number of advancing sectors increased from four to eight. Materials reversed from a 1.62% decline in the prior week to a 4.82% gain, whereas Energy moved from near-flat performance to a 3.44% decline. Market breadth improved materially, with Technology, Consumer Discretionary, and Industrials strengthening in tandem.
The market leadership structure was jointly driven by technology and cyclical sectors: Information Technology rose 7.20%, Materials gained 4.82%, and Industrials advanced 2.97%. Defensive Utilities and interest-rate-sensitive Real Estate lagged, indicating that while risk appetite recovered, capital continued to price in high-interest-rate constraints selectively.
Figure 1 | Weekly performance of the 11 U.S. equity sectors; the dashed line represents the S&P 500
Valuation: Technology-sector P/E ratios remain in the lead, while broad-market P/E remains near multi-year highs
Data from worldperatio show that, as of August 7, the price-to-earnings ratios of Information Technology, Real Estate, and Industrials were 33.67x, 32.65x, and 29.80x, respectively—the three highest among the 11 sectors. Communication Services at 15.67x, Financials at 16.66x, and Energy at 20.07x were relatively low. Relative to their 10-year averages, Industrials, Health Care, and Consumer Staples were all in elevated ranges; although Real Estate’s absolute P/E was high, it remained below its 10-year average.
Figure 2 | Sector P/E ratios and relative historical valuations (as of 2026/08/07)
The S&P 500’s trailing P/E ratio was 29.88x, above its roughly 25.2x average over the past decade. Broad-market valuation remains elevated.
Interest-rate constraint: The absolute valuation premium remains negative, making high valuations more dependent on delivered growth
At a P/E ratio of 29.88x, the S&P 500 earnings yield is approximately 3.35%. The July average yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury was approximately 4.62%, implying a spread of about −1.27 percentage points. On August 6, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.69%; based on the latest closing value, the spread was approximately −1.34 percentage points.
A negative spread does not mean that equities must decline, but it indicates that the static earnings compensation available to investors is lower than the risk-free rate. High valuations therefore depend more heavily on earnings growth and a decline in interest rates. If long-term rates remain elevated or earnings reports disappoint, valuation volatility could be amplified.
Figure 4 | S&P 500 earnings yield minus 10-year U.S. Treasury yield (monthly)
Community Expert Views This Week
@程俊Dream：Why do I believe gold is the most important opportunity at present?
Key views：
$微黄金主连 2612(MGCmain)$ $1盎司黄金主连 2612(1OZmain)$ $白银主连 2609(SImain)$ $白银ETF-iShares(SLV)$ $黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$
In the spot gold market, the key resistance zone is 4,380/4,402, which also coincides with the lows during the first-quarter correction this year. A shift in the balance between bulls and bears means that overcoming this resistance could lead to more short covering and a rebound. With futures already having broken out, coordinated confirmation from spot prices could pave the way for a rebound toward 4,800. It is also worth noting that, historically, the higher the premium between futures and spot, the stronger gold bulls tend to be.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Clues to the future performance of spot gold can also be found in the gold-to-silver ratio. Put simply, if the ratio can break above and hold the previous high of 72.7, it can broadly be concluded that gold has at least another 10% upside.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Macro strategy takeaways
For the strategy, the earlier long position in euro futures was filled at 1.1420. With last week’s market move now underway, the stop-loss has been raised further to 1.1420 to lock in a no-loss position. Targets remain unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half of the position allocated to each.
For crude oil, the average entry price of the long position that continues to be held is 75. Although the long side rebounded strongly earlier, it did not reach the first target. The short-term view remains range-bound. Therefore, the previous plan will remain in place for now, and the stop-loss may be raised later. The current stop-loss is set at 60, with targets at 95 and 115, with half of the position allocated to each.
We will also make several attempts in gold this week: place a limit buy order at 4,085, with a stop-loss at 3,955 and a target at 4,475; place limit sell orders at 4,760 and 5,170, with half of the position allocated to each, a stop-loss at 5,275, and a target at 4,000. Both pending orders remain valid until cancelled.
Key views
This U.S. equity correction was not driven by deteriorating fundamentals. Its core causes were passive position adjustments resulting from Korean high-leverage ETFs effectively holding underlying assets hostage, the largest retail-fund outflow since January 2019, and the liquidation of a high-profile AI fund. The Nasdaq’s low conformed to the historical cycle of 80–86 trading days and 16–19 weeks. Together with institutional net call buying reaching a record high and investment banks confirming resilient memory prices, these factors combined to trigger the rebound.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Hyperscale data-center technology stocks are trading at a valuation discount of two standard deviations versus the semiconductor sector. A reversion to the mean would imply more than 50% upside potential.
$英特尔(INTC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $MACH7 TECHNOLOGIES LTD(M7T.AU)$
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
The current technical pattern in equity indices should be as follows: a Wave B rebound begins first and may reach the June highs. However, once the Wave B rebound ends, a Wave C sell-off will take the market at least to the high reached in the fourth quarter of 2025.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Core risk warning: Growth in AI-infrastructure capital expenditure will probably peak in January 2025. The subsequent deceleration in growth will lead to a sector-wide valuation reassessment. Combined with factors such as the seasonal adjustment in September, this warrants caution toward correction risk.
Precious metals: Speculative capital that entered gold at the end of January has largely been shaken out, and the remaining positions are mostly held by long-term capital. Overhead selling pressure is now at an extremely low level. Concentrated short positions established earlier triggered stop-losses, creating a short-squeeze move that directly broke through the downtrend line in place since January and drove gold prices sharply higher. On a quarterly basis, however, gold remains overbought and needs a correction; the rebound offers an opportunity to establish short positions.
However, we must remain cautious. Once gold completes a technical breakout and accelerates higher in the short term, CTA funds turning bullish could trigger an explosive near-term advance in gold and materially strengthen the short-term bullish trend.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
From a cyclical perspective, gold could rebound to its 20-week moving average before reversing lower again to retest the 3,850 low.
Macro strategy takeaway
Gold trading plan: Consider buying an August 19 call option with a strike price of 4,350 while selling a call option with the same expiry and a strike price of 4,500. The risk-reward ratio is approximately 3.27.
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
Ivan_Gan：The Right Way to Chase Gold Highs; Equities to Consolidate — Trade Options for Time Decay
Key views
As the probability of rate hikes declines, assets previously affected by rate-hike expectations are entering a recovery phase. Gold’s rapid rebound last week validated my earlier expectation of a sharp rise in gold prices during July–August, although it occurred later than anticipated. The rebound is still expected to extend toward 4,600, after which the latest market information should guide further judgment. Those who previously sold put options below 4,000 can continue with this strategy, but should not rush to raise the strike price. Although the probability of a short-term new low has declined, the market may still experience large swings.
U.S. equity indices always find it difficult to decline sharply. Technically, the S&P index futures contract (ES) should be used as the benchmark, because recent gains in other stocks have masked the declines in Nasdaq AI stocks, making the Nasdaq signal somewhat distorted. Last week’s gap at 7,500 is an important level to watch: do not turn bearish unless it is broken. Strategically, 10% of futures exposure can be used to track the index or related ETFs, and CME’s recently launched single-stock futures can also be traded. For options, continue using the sell-put strategy, with a break below the gap level as the stop-loss.
Macro strategy takeaways
Strategy 1: Sell weekly put options on gold below 4,000. Stop out if the price breaks below the strike price.
Strategy 2: Last week’s gap in S&P index futures (ES) at 7,500 is an important level to watch. Do not turn bearish unless it is broken. Use 10% of futures exposure to track the index or related ETFs. For options, the rolling index put-selling strategy remains valid. This week, Nasdaq put options can be sold at strikes more than 7% below the market; stop out if the price breaks below the strike price.
Owen：Why Gold Is Diverging from Real Rates—and Could Trigger a Second U.S. Equity Pullback 💹📉
For a long time, gold and real interest rates—bond yields adjusted for inflation—have had a classic seesaw relationship. Because gold is a non-interest-bearing asset, the higher real interest rates are, the greater the opportunity cost of holding gold, so gold prices should theoretically decline. But this conventional wisdom has now been broken: real interest rates continue to rise, while gold has also continued to climb.
$标普500波动率指数(VIX)$ $1.5倍做多短期期货恐慌指数ETF-Proshares(UVXY)$
(Note: Chart circulating via social media, original source unknown. Used for discussion purposes only. If you own this content, please DM for proper credit or takedown.)
The essence of this phenomenon is the market’s extreme concern over U.S. sovereign debt. It shows that the market has begun to accept a “new normal”: a sustained rise in U.S. Treasury yields is almost inevitable. Investors do not see an effective way for the U.S. government to materially reduce its deficit, nor do they see AI supply-chain companies reducing debt issuance used to replenish operating cash flow.
Macroeconomic risks are now accumulating quietly, and capital has unhesitatingly made gold its first choice for hedging systemic risks. As long as U.S. Treasury yields move higher in an orderly, volatile manner and the U.S. Dollar Index does not experience a sharp collapse, U.S. equities can remain in a high-level range, and gold can likewise continue to rise.
For the short- to medium-term outlook for U.S. equities, I still believe the market will undergo substantial high-level volatility. On the one hand, the need for a correction from elevated levels has not been fully released. Based on the historical pattern around U.S. midterm elections, U.S. equities typically experience a weekly-chart-scale decline before November. On the other hand, we cannot simply maintain an outright short position in U.S. equities. Why? Because fundamentals are very strong. Among S&P 500 constituents, 84% of companies beat EPS expectations, and year-over-year earnings growth reached 50.3%. This strong fundamental support means that a one-way collapse in U.S. equities is unlikely.
How, then, should we construct our trading strategy in the current market?
Macro strategy takeaways
Strategy 1: Gold futures and options strategy
For gold, we can consider trading strategies through both futures and options. First, in futures, we can use the above gold technical-model chart as a reference. The 20-week moving average of the front-month continuous gold futures price, currently around 4,413, can serve as the level for initiating bullish long positions. Stop out if futures prices break below this level, and target approximately 4,600. At the same time, in the short term, we should monitor resistance from the 200-day moving average of the front-month continuous gold futures price; trading with the trend after a breakout would be preferable.
Strategy 2: Use a “long straddle/strangle” to capture a VIX rebound from the bottom
Based on the average pattern over the past 20 years, the VIX, or fear index, is currently at a relatively low level and its seasonal pattern is gradually improving. In this range-bound market, where major volatility can emerge at any time, using an options long straddle/strangle to capture a rise in the volatility index (VIX) offers highly attractive value. For example, buy at-the-money call and put options on QQQ or SPY with the same strike price and expiration date, both expiring two weeks later. When large market volatility occurs and VIX rises sharply, the long straddle/strangle position is likely to become profitable.
The advantage of this strategy is that overall risk exposure is controllable and direction-neutral; there is no need to predict whether the market will rise or fall. The stop-loss condition is also very clear: once VIX breaks below its key support level, indicating that volatility cannot rise, close the position immediately to limit losses.
Strategy 3: Roll short low-strike index puts
In a market that is range-bound but biased upward, or broadly volatile at high levels, selling out-of-the-money put options is an effective way to collect time value. We can select strikes for U.S. equity indices, such as the Nasdaq or S&P 500, roughly 7 percentage points below the market and sell them on a rolling weekly basis.
If the equity index moves sideways or rises modestly, the premium is collected steadily. If the index pulls back gradually, this safety cushion is relatively substantial. The stop-loss method is to close the position immediately once the price breaks below the strike price.
Follow-up on Last Week’s Strategies
Cheng’s strategies last week
The earlier long position in euro futures was filled at 1.1420. With last week’s market move now underway, the stop-loss was raised to 1.1370. Targets remained unchanged at 1.1770 and 1.2420, with half of the position allocated to each.
For crude oil, following the execution of long orders at 70, all pending orders had been completed. The average entry price for the long position was 75. Although the long position rebounded strongly earlier, it did not reach the first target. The short-term outlook remained range-bound. Therefore, the previous plan would remain in place for the time being, and the stop-loss might be raised later. The current stop-loss was set at 60, with targets at 95 and 115, with half of the position allocated to each.
Result: Strategy 1 was profitable; the long euro position was currently modestly profitable. Strategy 2 was profitable; crude oil futures had rebounded as expected and the strategy was profitable.
Gan’s strategy last week
Continue to sell index puts, using small positions. Strikes should preferably still be out-of-the-money options at least 10% below the Nasdaq or S&P 500.
Result: The strategy was profitable, but margin requirements were high.
Owen’s strategies last week
Redeploy the QQQ (Nasdaq-100 ETF) long straddle/strangle strategy. Use put and call options with the same strike price, expiring two weeks later. If the market suddenly reverses and experiences large volatility, profits from the volatility spike should be sufficient to cover the cost. Of course, we must choose take-profit and stop-loss levels at any time based on VIX movements. If the S&P 500 accelerates through its previous high, this would indicate that market sentiment has become completely unrestrained on the upside, while VIX repeatedly breaks below support. In that case, it is necessary to exit decisively with a stop-loss; losses would remain manageable.
Sell out-of-the-money options to collect premium: in a range-bound market, continue selling out-of-the-money QQQ calls and puts at levels 10 percentage points above and below the market on a rolling weekly basis.
Allocate a portion of the portfolio to gold for defense: consider rolling sales of put options below gold’s 20-month moving average to capture arbitrage returns, then use futures to capture the rebound after gold breaks out of its sideways range.
Result: Strategy 1 was in a loss-making position. VIX had not breached the stop-loss level, and the loss remained within 10 percentage points; await this week’s strategy performance. Strategy 2 was profitable, with the full premium collected, but margin requirements were high. Strategy 3 was profitable, with the full premium collected, but margin requirements were high.
Position-Risk Disclaimer
All trading strategies presented are for educational reference only and must not be copied or applied directly. Parameters should be adjusted in light of your own market assessment and real-time market conditions.
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