Marching into March: How Will the Stock Market Fare?

$S&P 500(.SPX)$ has risen for 4 consecutive months. February seems to have broken the spell of its worst performance. Last year, March witnessed a bank run. This year's March also faces the test of elections. How will March fare? How do you expect March?

avatarKYHBKO
03-17

Preview of the week starting 18 Mar 2024 - can Micron turn things around?

Public Holidays No holidays for Singapore, China, the USA, or Hong Kong. Economic Calendar (18 Mar 2024) Notable Highlights FOMC interest rate decision should be the most watched economic data this coming week. We are not expecting the interest rate cut to begin. With the recent inflation data, we should also cater for potential interest rate hikes in the coming months should inflation worsen. Fed Chair Powell is speaking at the end of the week. His speech can move the market as they await updates of a hopeful fed pivot. Manufacturing data. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI provide an outlook of the manufacturing and we are expecting the sector to expand as per the forecast given. S&P Global Services PMI provides an outlook on the demand for U
Preview of the week starting 18 Mar 2024 - can Micron turn things around?

How Bank of Japan decides the liquidity?

In the history, the Bank of Japan has often been ambiguous in its attitude towards policy shifts, allowing the market to digest expectations on its own but without providing a clear timetable. Policy shifts are often "unexpected yet reasonable." $Japanese Yen - Mar 2024(JPY2403)$ $Japanese Yen - main 2406(JPYmain)$ $iShares MSCI Japan ETF(EWJ)$ The long-term loose policy has led to the monetization of the fiscal deficit, distortion of government bond prices, and depreciation of the yen. In recent years, as the growth momentum of the Japanese economy gradually recovers and inflation levels warm up, the subjective and objective conditions for the Bank of J
How Bank of Japan decides the liquidity?

Two events crucial for rate cut this week

This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will attend a congressional hearing to present the semi-annual monetary policy report, followed by the release of the February non-farm payroll report by the U.S. Department of Labor. March 6th to March 7th, Chairman Powell will testify before Congresswhere the focus is expected to be on the Fed's handling of inflation and its monetary policy stance. With January's CPI exceeding expectations, a rebound in core PCE, and strong service sector inflation, Powell is likely to emphasize the need to remain patient with rate cuts given the overall performance of the U.S. economy, signaling a hawkish stance.However, there is increasing pressure from the U.S. government for rate cuts, which Powell will have to address. Sustaining high interest rates may tig
Two events crucial for rate cut this week
avatarkoolgal
03-04

Bye Bye February, Hello March!

🌟🌟🌟What an amazing start to March as the Nasdaq 100 Index surged more than 1% to an all time high at 16,274.94 on Friday  as bullish sentiments on Big Tech led the way!  The S&P500 added 0.80% to close at 5137.08, the first close above the 5100 threshold. Even the Dow Jones Index also gained 0.23%to close at 39,087.38. The Star Performer was undoubtedly $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  which had led the tech rally by surging more than 260% for the last 12 months and was up 4% to hit a USD 2 Trillion in market capitalisation.  $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$  was up 2.4%. The key event in March would be the FOMC meeting scheduled i
Bye Bye February, Hello March!

$40B Flooded The Market In February 🌊🚀

$QQQ(QQQ)$  The tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 also paints a picture of extraordinary resilience. It surpassed the 18,000-point mark and closed the month at an all-time high. The surge in the Nasdaq 100, up 28% since late October, offers a testament to the unwavering appetite for tech-oriented investments. The S&P 500 index, a bellwether for the U.S. stock market, ends February with a 5.3% surge, marking its fourth consecutive month of gains. Since the tumultuous days of late October, the broader stock market rally now nears an impressive 25% increase. ⚠️ Trading tips: Almost everything will likely gap up today from the Federal Reserve’s favored price gauge, the personal consumption expenditures index, was in line wit
$40B Flooded The Market In February 🌊🚀
avatarKYHBKO
03-17

Earnings for the week 18Mar24 - can MICRON turn things around?

Earnings Calendar (18 Mar 2024) In the coming week, we have some earnings of interest that include Micron, FedEx and Factset. Let us look at the recent performance of Micron. For Micron, the EPS TTM is -6.28 (that implies making a loss) in the 12 months trailing. The stock price has surged 64.58% from one year ago. The rating of the stock (from investing) is “NEUTRAL”. From the annual income statement, we have the following observations: Total revenue TTM has fallen to $16.18B compared to the recent peak of $30.75B (30 Aug 2022). The operating income has fallen from $9.7B (30 Aug 2022) to -$6.63B (TTM). The TTM operating income is expected to be worse. The Free Cash flow was negative for the last 2 years. Though TTM has a worse Operating income, the Free Cash Flow is improving compared to
Earnings for the week 18Mar24 - can MICRON turn things around?
Markets standing tall The markets have held up pretty well going into March and this is where I have to add that the markets that are doing well are doing so on narrow leadership.  The magnificent seven have been pulling the markets along as they ploughed through the bears. However, they have all been taking turns to fall back. Tesla was first and not surprisingly so being more of an EV story and much more affected by high rates. Then Apple and Google were next both not making new highs. Microsoft followed thereafter just recently which leaves only Nvidia, Meta and Amazon to hold the fort. Now that everyones' technicals seem to paint a complete pattern upon a five wave pattern, it seems only a matter of time before they pull back. So as much as the bulls would like the party to c

How did market react to Quadruple witching day?

Quadruple witching day refers to the expiration settlement day of derivative financial products in the US stock market on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December each year. 四巫The last trading hour of the day is called the Quadruple witching hour, from 3 p.m. to 4 p.m. New York time. There are four types of products for expiration settlement, hence called Quadruple witching day: stock index futures $SP500 index 2403 (ES2403)$, stock index options, stock options, and individual stock futures. Individual stock futures trading in the US market started on November 8, 2002, before that it was referred to as Triple witching day or Triple witching hour. The main impact of Quadruple witching day is a significant increase in trading volum
How did market react to Quadruple witching day?

AI - Opportunity or Threat?

AI boom is undeniably an opportunity for companies like Nvidia, AMD and Microsoft. But it is also quite evident that over the last few weeks, Apple and Google have been quite unloved in the latest AI rally. It has been a while since Apple innovated or came out with something fantastic. Their Vision Pro hasn’t been lifting off, at least for now. At the same time, we don’t see lots of AI plays in their business - both products and services. Recently, they have also pulled the plug on Apple cars. As for Google, they have been a little late in entering the AI field - late in introducing Bard to rival ChatGPT, late in introducing Gemini to rival other generative AI platforms. To make things worse, they had 2 rounds of bloopers for both of these platforms. Rushed products? Probably. They haven
AI - Opportunity or Threat?
avatarDan1192
03-03
【Voting Post】I'M BULLISH FOR MARCH $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$   Here's why.  Hi, I am Daniel. I am a retail trader learning to trade with the hope of eventually leaving my day job.  February 2024 has been a good month for many of us, I managed a 50% return to my capital. How did you do?  MARCH HOW?  Looking at ampircal data and trend, the general U.S. stock performance in March has been positive over the past five years, with the S&P 500 index averaging a return of around 3.5%. (However, it's important to remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results, and individual years can vary significantly) . As we know, by and large market sentiments drive market direction,
PCT: If Only Earnings Call Is Monthly v10.0 : PCT = Pandas Coffee Talk. Me RickPANDA really hate post-earnings blues. Just a passing thought. What if NVDA or TSM do monthly earnings calls. Not quarterly earnings calls? Stock markets will confirmed up & up every month. Because company CEO like NVDA CEO really know how to do his company things & sell his pitches. NVDA is just killed by post-earnings blues basically. You really think me RickPANDA don't want more tickers options each month basis. Must only consider 1Option now which is BTC Halving Hype. Many options have values in shares investings.

The Bull May Continues in March, $NVDA Targets $970 by mid-April

US stocks rallied to close out the best February for the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and Nasdaq Composite $NASDAQ(.IXIC)$ in nearly a decade as investors digested a crucial inflation reading.Both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 had their best February's since 2015.As a result, several tickers also ended the month on record highs. $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ $Chipotle Mexican Grill(CMG)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$ $Lennar(LEN)$
The Bull May Continues in March, $NVDA Targets $970 by mid-April
avatarpekss
03-09

Bulls and bears

With rising awareness of global climate change, geopolitical conflicts affecting crude oil prices, and tightening emission controls, adoption of electric vehicles is expected to increase over time, even if the EV industry may be encountering softening demands temporarily due to economic slowdown, escalated borrowing costs and expiring subsidies. Availability of charging infrastructure may have deterred buyers too. However, I believe that the EV market is poised to resume growth as the Fed is expected to commence rate cuts this year after taming the inflation and being confident that it is falling back sustainably to the Fed's 2% target, so as to avoid tipping the US economy into a recession. With $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ 
Bulls and bears

Enjoy the Ride! $SPX, $QQQ

U.S. CPI data for February slightly exceeded expectations, and core inflation exceeded expectations for two consecutive months, further supporting the Federal Reserve's caution in cutting interest rates.Housing and gasoline costs continue to hold back inflation.After the data was released, the $USD Index(USDindex.FOREX)$ rose first and then fell. S&P 500 index futures $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2406(ESmain)$ and $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2406(NQmain)$ first fell and then rose to daily highs. $S&P 500(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$
Enjoy the Ride! $SPX, $QQQ
avatarpekss
03-02

Will they march forward in March?

BYD has just slashed prices on the updated versions of its Han and Tang EV models that come with upgraded driver-assist features among other tech upgrades, after similar cuts across other models previously, while its closest competitor Tesla has further discounted its selling price of Model Y after earlier cuts in that model as well as Model 3 in the Chinese market. These moves are taking the price war into both ends of the EV market: budget and mid-to-high end, so that no market segment is now spared from the prevailing price war that has been raging for the past 1-2 years. After strong results and optimistic outlook from $LI AUTO-W(02015)$   this week, $NIO-SW(0986
Will they march forward in March?

Can SPX. break the Leap Day curse and close higher?

Today is Leap Day. February 29th, a date that only occurs once every four years. Its origin goes back over 2000 years to when Julius Caesar fixed the calendar in 45 BCE, acknowledging a year is a bit longer than 365 days.How will market perform on this special day?It's worth noting that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has risen for 4 consecutive months. As of now, the monthly gain for February stands at 4.62%!Historical data suggests that both the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ tend to underperform. Since 1950, Leap Day has experienced gains only 38.5% and 30.8% of the time. It's noteworthy that US stock indices have declined on each of the past three Leap Days.Source:
Can SPX. break the Leap Day curse and close higher?
avatarKYHBKO
03-10

Market outlook of S&P500 for week starting 11Mar2024 - More records?

Market Outlook of S&P500 - 11 Mar 2024 Technical observations of the S&P500 1D chart: The MACD indicator is showing a downtrend having completed another top crossover. Chaikin Money Flow advises an uptrend though the momentum is thinning. Moving Averages (MA). Both the MA50 line and the MA200 line are on an uptrend. The last candle is above both the MA 50 line and the MA 200 line. Thus, it could be read as bullish for the long-term and mid-term. Exponential Moving Averages (EMA). The 3 EMA lines are moving in a fanned-out pattern, thus implying an uptrend. I have replaced Stochastic with CMF to incorporate consideration of volume. Stochastic and MACD are similar with Stochastic being “more active” and more capable for “false” signals. From investing, it recommends a “Strong Buy” fo
Market outlook of S&P500 for week starting 11Mar2024 - More records?

Rate cuts

This week, investors will be looking for answer to the number of rate cuts for this year. The current expectation from both the Fed and market is 3 cuts. Things may and could change on Wed as Fed release its latest monetary policy decision. This is especially so when recent inflation reports came in hotter than expected. ==== Check out my latest YouTube video on market analysis: Warning: Hot Inflation + FOMC Meeting https://youtu.be/rJNqShqb7Aw $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$  $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$  $Meta Platforms, Inc.(FB)$$Apple(AAPL)$  $Invesco QQQ Trust-ETF(QQQ)$ 
Rate cuts

Feb 2024 update

Feb 2024 was not bad for me, I got 2.7% paper gain. Chinese stocks seemed bottom out. I hold Tracker of HK, HST ETF and Emerging Market ETF VWO. And Feb is the earning report season. Most of my dividend stocks announced expected dividend amount, except SIIC Environment. I secured 8k dividend by today. Estimated dividend income was 18k in 2024. To further diversify my dividend portfolio, I opened new position on P9D, Civmec, G13 Genting Singapore, 544 CSE Global and VC2 Olam Group. Civmec is up trending engineering construction company for Australia mining and offshore. Genting Singapore played kitchen-sinking strategy at Q4 2024 result. CSE global was stable dividend payment company in software and IT service industry. Olam Group profits seemed bottom out, current dividend yield was abou
Feb 2024 update
March is always a crazy time for the stock market, isn't it? It's like March Madness for investors! Enjoy free capital gains without working. No need to work in a real job anymore. Just buy the US Stocks with your food money and wait for the FED to Pump the stock prices big time every single day, Despite Tanking Corporate Revenues and Collapsing Economy. Worse fundamentals do not matter. It is a Free Money ATM, Get Quick Rich Scheme. There is no risk anymore, No Correction, not even red day anymore. Only green days, only free capital gains without risk every single day forever. Even Bankrupt company stocks are getting Pumped by 500-600% per year... NO risk of losing money! The FED gives away trillions of dollars in the form of capital gains every single day, by Pumping the US Stock prices