How to Profit from IV Crush in Earnings Season?

During earnings season, IV Crush refers to the sharp decline in implied volatility (IV) after a company's earnings report. Before earnings, IV rises due to uncertainty about the outcome, causing option prices to increase. After the earnings release, this uncertainty dissipates, leading to a rapid drop in IV. This decline impacts options prices, often causing them to decrease even if the stock price moves favorably. ----------------- How to take advantage of IV crush in earnings season? Share your experiences!

avatarTiger V
11-13

Investment Reflection: Put Option Strategy on C3.ai, Inc.

Overview of Strategy On November 12, 2024, I implemented a put-selling strategy on C3.ai, Inc. (AI) by selling a put option with a strike price of $20, expiring on December 20, 2024. At the time of selling the put, C3.ai's stock price was $27.28, and I collected an option premium of $26. The strategy was based on C3.ai's recent stock performance, upcoming earnings, and a willingness to acquire shares at a discounted price if assigned. Analysis of C3.ai’s Recent Performance and Market Sentiment C3.ai, Inc. operates in the artificial intelligence software sector, providing AI and machine learning applications across various industries. The company's stock is often subject to high volatility, driven by market sentiment toward AI technology and C3.ai’s financial performance. Stock Performance:
Investment Reflection: Put Option Strategy on C3.ai, Inc.

How Tesla Traders Are Betting On Robotaxi Event?

The upcoming Robotaxi AI Event on October 10th is seen as key to $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ future growth; after all, Tesla has been sluggish so far this year and has faced problems on different fronts such as overvaluation, declining margins, executive departures, and Musk's personal behavior.The importance of the Robotaxi AI Event is that it could open up a multi-trillion dollar AI market opportunity.Current market expectations include:The latest Fully Self-Driving (FSD) technology, expected to be FSD v12.5, emphasizing Robotaxi's ability to handle complex traffic situations without human driver interventionDriving the commercialization process, by showcasing Robotaxi in real-world scenarios, Tesla hopes to attract investors and partners, which is a n
How Tesla Traders Are Betting On Robotaxi Event?

Decoding NetEase's Financial Options Game through Black Myth: Wukong

"Black Myth: Wukong" has taken the global gaming market by storm, breaking records across all platforms. According to the national game sales rankings, it has sold over 3 million copies on Steam alone, with total sales exceeding 4.5 million copies and revenue topping ¥1.5 billion. High expectations for "Black Myth: Wukong" were highlighted by Goldman Sachs, which called it a significant turning point for the Chinese console game industry and a key step for Chinese games on the global stage. This success may spur increased investment in Chinese games, especially in the 3A category.Goldman Sachs believes that $TENCENT(00700)$ $Tencent Holding Ltd.(TCEHY)$ and $NTES
Decoding NetEase's Financial Options Game through Black Myth: Wukong

How Option Investors See PDD

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ plunged the second day, on the one hand, the analysts of large banks have felt that the current plunge is a little over the top, the camel is bigger than a horse, on the other hand, the institutions also take the lead in the wildly throw, after 30 points may as well fall 10 points, hard to the management on the lesson. $Morgan Stanley(MS)$ : Who said long-term profitability is down? $Citigroup(C)$ : management's self-defeating expectation management, and it's only going up when the bearishness is out of the way $Goldman Sachs(GS)$ the target price has not yet taken into account the valuation of Temu .....
How Option Investors See PDD
avatarPommesy
07-31

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May Volatility Expected to Subside, Institutions Position for Longer-Term Downside

The surprisingly cooler U.S. April jobs report stoked hopes for an earlier start to Fed rate cuts, sending the VIX fear gauge to a one-month low and pushing Treasury yields lower. Apple rallied nearly 6%, leading tech stocks higher.Options market data suggested expectations for reduced volatility in the S&P 500 near-term, with a sideways bias this week and potential for the index to finish Friday below 509. QQQ saw continued buying of longer-dated downside protection. For small-caps, Russell 2000 options positioned for a range-bound move, with expectations for the index to trade between 194-210 into June.Details:The $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ options overall reflected a bullish trading sentiment, with sellers of put options dominating. O
May Volatility Expected to Subside, Institutions Position for Longer-Term Downside
avatarTiger V
05-31

Investment Reflection: Selling a LEAP AI Cash-Secured Put Option

Overview On May 10, 2024, I executed an options strategy by selling one LEAP AI $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$  cash-secured put option with a strike price of $22.50 and a maturity date of September 20, 2024. This strategy allowed me to collect a premium of $297 upfront. The position was closed on May 30, 2024, for $135 after AI stock surged to $28.57 following its earnings announcement. This investment reflection outlines the rationale, execution, and outcomes of this strategy. Strategy Rationale Selling a cash-secured put option was chosen for its potential to generate income while taking on limited risk. Here’s why this strategy made sense: 1. Income Generation: By selling the put option, I received an immediate premium of
Investment Reflection: Selling a LEAP AI Cash-Secured Put Option

Institutional Strategies for This Week: ITM Straddles with Limited Leverage and Risk Control

Impacted by last week's plunge, tech earnings this week, even with robust numbers, may not see significant rallies and could potentially decline further. As a result, large options orders for tech stocks appear to have turned quite conservative, with institutions starting to employ in-the-money option combinations to reduce costs and control risks. This reflects the market's skepticism about the sustainability of the current market rebound. $Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ I believe META will remain the strongest performer this earnings season due to its monopolistic advantages. However, expectations should not be set too high, as the previous sell-off has made $525 a minor resistance level, making a repeat of last quarter's 20% surge unrealistic. No
Institutional Strategies for This Week: ITM Straddles with Limited Leverage and Risk Control

Elon Musk's Travel Plans Leaked, Bulls Quietly Buy Huge Call Options Betting on $250!

TL;DR: A mysterious institution is bullish on Tesla, expecting the stock price to explore $210 in June and return above the year's high of $250 by August.On the afternoon of April 28th, a sudden news report revealed that Elon Musk had been invited to visit China. The main purpose is to discuss the deployment of Tesla's self-driving technology in the Chinese market. Although there is no specific timeline, judging from official Weibo statements and the Tesla app's purchase page descriptions, cooperation between the two parties seems highly likely.On Monday, Tesla finally reversed its sluggish performance this year, with its pre-market stock price surging 12%, showing strong signs of a trend reversal. Previously, Tesla's option big orders were predominantly bearish, with the main strategy bei
Elon Musk's Travel Plans Leaked, Bulls Quietly Buy Huge Call Options Betting on $250!
I had been buying $Sea Ltd(SE)$  since it dropping. I have faith and confidence in this company. The 3 business models for gaming, e-commerce and digital banking are making profit now. Therefore, I do not see why the stock price will not be going up. You must keep for long term and you can see the price shot to the moon. None of its competition is new. SEA is the dominant player in its markets, of course it won't grow as fast as someone just starting out and burning billions! SEA has challenges, certainly, will require patience no doubt, but as a long term perspective, I don't see how not to be long on SEA. I will keep buying. Great long opportunity. My target price is $80 by end of Aug 2024.

This week, the decisive battle for NVIDIA revolves around $800

After examining Friday's new options positions, I feel there's no need to wait until Monday's market close. I can assert that this week, the battle for NVIDIA's stock price will revolve around the $800 level.Specifically, I'm optimistic that NVIDIA will be able to maintain a price above $800 this week, although upside may be capped around the $840 level.Let me first share the overall picture of NVIDIA's options. Although some might regret missing last week's plunge, there's no need to worry, as the next major options expiration event is on May 17th, when the monthly options for May expire, with a significant number of open interest contracts. However, the specific dynamics will depend on the price movement preferences in May, for which I'll conduct a thorough analysis as we approach that d
This week, the decisive battle for NVIDIA revolves around $800

Why Did Excellent Earnings Not Match Excellent Return?

$PDD Holdings Inc(PDD)$ 22nd pre-market earnings report , revenue +131% y/y, the highest growth rate in 21 years, 13% above the market consensus estimate, gross margin of 62%, 5% above the market estimate, net profit growth of +200%, 97% above the market consensus estimate.But the stock opened higher and stayed below 150 that day, and the options were even more IV Crush, with almost all Calls and PUTs due that week discounted.No coincidence, the pillar of the U.S. stock $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ also announced earnings after the 22nd session, revenue +262.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations by 5%, of which the data center business +426.7% year-on-year; net profit +628% year-on-year.Pre-market gains ar
Why Did Excellent Earnings Not Match Excellent Return?

Little Chance of Breaking 170, but Tesla's Friday Action is Worth a Shot

In summary: Tesla's stock price is likely to settle around $160 this week, but there is a small probability of a gamma squeeze on call options, pushing the price up to $170.After its earnings report, $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ rebounded 11%, essentially just recouping last week's losses. Apart from "killing" the shorts, there seems to be no other substantial impact - it was just noise.The short-sellers were hit hard, with the effect being significant. The top 9 out-of-the-money put options expiring this week were essentially all buried, expiring worthless. Listed from low to high strike prices, the put options with open interest above 10,000 contracts had strikes at: 150, 140, 130, 135, 75, 120, 100, 145, 125, 160, 115, 155, 110, and 90.The distribution
Little Chance of Breaking 170, but Tesla's Friday Action is Worth a Shot

How investors bet on NVDA Q1 Earnings?

$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ arnings can be a star-studded affair, and as the world's leading GPU maker, a good or bad Q1 report as well as changes in next guidance could affect the overall broader market. $GraniteShares 2x Short NVDA Daily ETF(NVD)$ $GraniteShares 2x Long NVDA Daily ETF(NVDL)$ $NVIDIA Bear 1.25X ETF-AXS(NVDS)$ First quarter resultsConsensus market revenue of $24.69 billion, up 243.3% year-over-year; EBITDA up 439% year-over-year to $16.46 billion and EPS up 418% year-over-year to $5.65The all-important Data Center segment showed significant growth momentum. With shorter H100 GPU lead times and the introduction of
How investors bet on NVDA Q1 Earnings?
$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ - I sold META puts a couple days ago. Although I believe META can rebound in the future, the capital used to take on those put positions will likely be tied up for at least 3 months. As someone who tries to unite theory and practice, I didn't really feel like talking much tonight and wanted to remain quiet.Despite lacking energy, I still need to maintain daily observations. An interesting question arises - after an earnings release, will market makers start killing off option positions?Call options will undoubtedly get crushed. For META's put options this week, the 450, 470, 440, 400, 480 strikes have the highest open interest. Looking at the intraday movements, although market makers can't control everything, they sti

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avatarTiger V
05-09

Investment Reflection on C3.ai Cash Secured Put Option Roll

Context and Market Position: - C3.ai, Inc. $C3.ai, Inc.(AI)$   closed the latest trading day at $24.76, representing a slight decline of 0.04% from the previous session. The company's recent stock performance lagged behind broader market indices, such as the S&P 500 and Dow, while the technology-dominated Nasdaq experienced a marginal decrease. - Over the past month, C3.ai shares have depreciated by 0.8%, underperforming both the Computer and Technology sector's gain and the broader market performance. Company Outlook: - Investors are anticipating the company's upcoming earnings release on May 29, 2024. The forecasted EPS of -$0.31 represents a substantial 138.46% downward movement from the same quarter l
Investment Reflection on C3.ai Cash Secured Put Option Roll

Will you trade the unsual volatility?

Several outlier options on May 20 followed several market-focused events. $Li Auto(LI)$ reported Q1 earnings. It turned out to be a big miss on the profit side of the equation, panicking investors in a thunderous way, with the stock dropping will the $21 position, hence the massive unwinding of the $23 (current week to expiration) CALL options.$Hims & Hers Health Inc.( HIMS)$ also shot up nearly 30% on the launch of a weight-loss pill that's 80% cheaper than Eli Lilly's, while the IV of Call, which expires at 19 this week, spiked to 193% as more speculative money joined in.Also, the meme ticker continues, $Faraday Future (FFIE)$ After
Will you trade the unsual volatility?
avatarTiger V
04-22
The recent drop in Tesla Motors' (TSLA) stock price following a Q1 delivery miss and a sustained decline below its 200-day moving average raises questions about the company's future prospects. Investors' pessimism about Tesla's future trend, with some predicting a further decline to $120 or $110, contrasts with ARK ETFs' Cathie Wood, who recently added a significant number of Tesla shares to her portfolio. Here is my view on how to take advantage of implied volatility (IV) crush during the earnings season, as well as whether to bottom-fish Tesla stock at the current or lower levels: Understand IV Crush: Implied volatility (IV) often spikes before earnings announcements due to the uncertainty around potential stock price movement. Once the earnings report is released, IV tends to drop signi
avatarV1p3r32
04-22

what's IV crush and how to take advantage of it

**Understanding IV Crush and Strategies to Capitalize on It** In the world of options trading, few terms are as critical to understand as "IV Crush." IV, or Implied Volatility, is a metric that reflects the market's forecast of a likely movement in a security's price. An IV Crush occurs when there's a sharp decline in implied volatility, which typically happens after a significant event like an earnings report. This sudden drop can significantly affect the extrinsic value of options contracts, often to the detriment of uninformed traders¹. **What Causes an IV Crush?** An IV Crush is usually event-driven. Before a major event, there's a lot of uncertainty about the future price of a stock, which inflates the option premiums due to higher implied volatility. Once the event passes and the unc
what's IV crush and how to take advantage of it