Summary Gasoline prices are down again due to global demand concerns. The average US retail gas price is $3.3, down from nearly $3.8 in May. This year, energy is the worst-performing sector, as investors view oil as cyclical after 2008 and 2020 despite its historically non-cyclical pattern. The Federal Reserve's surprisingly quick dovish shift and geopolitical should encourage investors to look toward supply side inflation hedges. Chevron's strong balance sheet, low debt-to-equity ratio, and strategic acquisitions position it well for future growth despite its slightly higher valuation. In a recession, Chevron's diversified operations and consistent dividend make it a safer bet, particularly given US drilling activity has already declined due to concerns of a slowdown that may not occur. N

Summary PulteGroup's high valuation and profit margins are unsustainable due to low home affordability and a fading housing shortage, making it a potential short opportunity. Despite strong recent performance, PulteGroup's backlog and new orders are declining, signaling reduced demand and increased risk exposure. The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts should not significantly lower mortgage rates, meaning home affordability is unlikely to improve without lower prices. PulteGroup's aggressive investment in new projects amidst economic uncertainty could exacerbate losses if the economy enters a broader recession, though a 2008-repeat is unlikely for numerous reasons. krblokhin The home construction industry faces a strange mix of trends today; some support the market, while others are a gr

Summary Synchrony Financial faces risks from declining consumer credit and a potential economic recession, which should slow loan originations and may increase defaults. Despite slightly elevated delinquency rates, Synchrony's high interest rates provide a cushion, but its high loan-to-deposit ratio and unsecured loans pose risks. Consumer borrowing and spending are slowing, and low personal savings could potentially increase demand for credit and long-term default risks. I am bearish on SYF due to its exposure to negative economic headwinds, which I expect will increase its delinquencies over the coming year. J. Michael Jones A key theme to my outlook is the decline in consumer credit lending associated with potential recession risk. After being calm for most of the 2010s, consumer lendin

Summary B. Riley faces immense risks due to significant debt maturities, weak consumer brands, and a tarnished reputation that may harm its advisory business. Despite a 67% stock plummet, short interest remains high, indicating market skepticism about its survival and potential for a short squeeze. The company's future hinges on asset sales, creditor leniency, and potential take-private offers, making its equity value highly speculative. Given its seemingly binary prospects and the potential for significant upside, if liquidity risks are mitigated, I now have a neutral outlook on RILY. Reputation matters in investment banking, meaning B. Riley may struggle with keeping its key clients and employees. J Studios In July, I published "

Summary BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity. Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes. In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation. I expect a repeat of 2020-2022 when inflation declined in the short term but was eventually pushed to a new high as the Federal Reserve overstimulated. Speculators may take advantage of BND's current rally, but may not want to hold the ETF for too long. NoDerog/E+ via Getty Images The medium and long-term bond markets have reacted well to economic data indicating a slowdown. I'

Summary Rio Tinto has lost ~14% of its value since January, while the S&P 500 has risen by 20%, stemming from a sharp decline in iron prices. I expect China's iron ore demand to continue to plummet along with its property sector, potentially leading to a permanent 15-25% decline in global iron demand. Rio Tinto's exposure to China is exacerbated by its significant Australian iron ore mining, which has supported China's property development bubble. The coming glut in iron ore may push the commodity down into the $60 range, dramatically reducing Rio Tinto's overall EBITDA. Copper and aluminum are also negatively exposed to this trend, but they have closer ties to manufacturing demand, which may face a more transitory decline due to a global economic slowdown. Abstract Aerial Art/DigitalV

Summary B. Riley's stock has fallen by 71% since I wrote a bearish opinion in 2021, as its income has declined while its balance sheet risks have grown. The company's future seems uncertain as short interest reaches 30%, making it among the most short-sold stocks today. Fundamentally, the company is operating too many segments, failing to develop a competitive edge in most, leading to low margins. B. Riley's securities lending business stands out compared to peers but could result in notable risks due to the potential undercollateralization of these loans in the event of a large market decline. Although B. Riley's risk exposure appears high, its performance may recover depending on macroeconomic circumstances. Further, its short interest is high enough that it has high short-squeeze potent