Harrison Schwartz
Harrison Schwartz
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Agnico Eagle Mines: Undervalued Miner With Lower Risks As Gold Prices Soar

Summary Gold is one of the top-performing assets in 2024, with a strong surge as the Japanese Yen crumbles. Gold miners, such as Agnico Eagle Mines, have performed well, outperforming peers Newmont and Barrick, which are seeing costs rise too quickly. Agnico's lower jurisdictional risk significantly benefits its peers, as the gold bull thesis largely implies increased political and economic unrest in developing countries. Based on an updated income estimate, I believe AEM's forward "P/E" today is closer to 12X to 13X. While I am neutral on most large gold miners, I believe AEM's advantage should continue in the long run. Vitoria Holdings LLC Gold is one of the top-performing assets in 2024, boasting a ~16% return YTD. Gold miners have also performed decently, with the gold miner ETF (
Agnico Eagle Mines: Undervalued Miner With Lower Risks As Gold Prices Soar

Clear Secure: Long-Term Growth Limited By Potentially Unstable Business Model

Clear Secure's sharp decline in post-Q3 earnings is due to slowing customer growth and declining net member retention despite solid sales growth and profitability. The company's focus on profitability over customer acquisition and retention may hinder long-term growth, especially with regulatory risks. Clear Secure must diversify beyond airport security to unlock its full potential, but its current strategy seemingly prioritizes short-term shareholder value. While YOU has substantial sales growth and a low forward P/E ratio, given its rising profitability, its business model and management focus raise long-term growth concerns. In my view, the company must prove that it is not a "fast pass" that benefits from price discrimination but actually fulfills an identification need, particularly o
Clear Secure: Long-Term Growth Limited By Potentially Unstable Business Model

Best Buy: Q3 Disappointment As Macro Headwinds Overcome Cost-Cutting Efforts

Best Buy's Q3 results missed revenue and EPS targets, with comparable sales growth at -2.9% and disappointing Q4 guidance, leading to a 7% decline Tuesday morning. The challenging macroeconomic environment, election distractions, and uncompetitive business model against Walmart and Amazon are significant headwinds for Best Buy. I remain bearish on BBY, expecting continued sales decline, potential dividend cuts, and store closures due to weak consumer demand and macroeconomic pressures. Contrary to most analysts, I doubt BBY's EPS will recover by 2027. Instead, I forecast a long-term decline that may accelerate with economic weakness next year. I plan to hold my short position in BBY until its valuation fairly discounts its chronic competitive pressures, or the company proves its ability to
Best Buy: Q3 Disappointment As Macro Headwinds Overcome Cost-Cutting Efforts

B. Riley Financial: Securities Lending Business Raises Eyebrows Due To Liquidity Risk

Summary B. Riley's stock has fallen by 71% since I wrote a bearish opinion in 2021, as its income has declined while its balance sheet risks have grown. The company's future seems uncertain as short interest reaches 30%, making it among the most short-sold stocks today. Fundamentally, the company is operating too many segments, failing to develop a competitive edge in most, leading to low margins. B. Riley's securities lending business stands out compared to peers but could result in notable risks due to the potential undercollateralization of these loans in the event of a large market decline. Although B. Riley's risk exposure appears high, its performance may recover depending on macroeconomic circumstances. Further, its short interest is high enough that it has high short-squeeze potent
B. Riley Financial: Securities Lending Business Raises Eyebrows Due To Liquidity Risk

COPX: Gold To Copper Ratio Signals Greater Trouble Ahead For Miners

Summary Copper prices surged earlier in the year, but have since reversed gains as China's copper inventories slipped from extreme highs. Rising copper mining costs may offset post-2020 gains in copper, depending on economic and political risk in Latin America. China's efforts to bolster copper stockpiles may have pulled future demand forward, potentially leading to a sharp decline in imports later this year. It may be unlikely that electric vehicle demand will rise enough to increase copper consumption, or EVs will continue to require so much copper. The rising gold-to-copper ratio may indicate a global decline in manufacturing activity. shells1 Last year, I published "COPX: The Copp
COPX: Gold To Copper Ratio Signals Greater Trouble Ahead For Miners

SPMO: Momentum Style Is Losing Momentum As Rotation Grows

Summary Momentum factor funds have performed very well YoY, with SPMO rising twice as fast as the S&P 500 due to its exposure to the "AI trade." As Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft, and others dominate SPMO, it is more exposed to the risk of a burst of the retail-driven "AI bubble." Low individual investor cash allocations may be a solid bearish indication for stocks that are more popular among individual investors. SPMO has outperformed the iShares Momentum ETF, MTUM, with relative consistency since 2022, potentially because of its less risk-averse approach. Technology stocks in SPMO may have less direct cyclical economic risk but more exposure to the possibility of a liquidity-driven stock market correction. Tom Merton/iStock via Getty Images Momentum investing strategy ETFs, such as Invesco
SPMO: Momentum Style Is Losing Momentum As Rotation Grows

Robinhood: Interest Rate Cuts To Cause Sharp Decline In Net Income By 2025

Summary Interest rates drive around 40% of Robinhood's net revenues, and a large recessionary rate cut would likely erase most of that revenue segment. Robinhood attracts speculative retail accounts, which see activity and flows ebb and flow more dramatically than peers with the overall stock market trend. Since individual investors lack prominent uninvested cash positions and recession odds are high, Robinhood's net revenues may also decline due to lower transaction-based sales. Assuming Robinhood's sales and income remain steady, the stock appears significantly overvalued, trading at a roughly 150% premium to IBKR. HOOD's bullish momentum is strong enough that it may not be a good short opportunity, but it may be a decent pair trade against its much more reasonably valued competitor, IBK
Robinhood: Interest Rate Cuts To Cause Sharp Decline In Net Income By 2025

VYM: A Low Dividend Investment With Greater Risk Than Bonds

Summary Many individual investors focus on high dividend-paying stocks and funds, like Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF, for consistent cash payments. VYM has underperformed the S&P 500 over the past decade and offers a marginally lower average rate of return. VYM and the S&P 500 offer low returns compared to 5.5% yielding short-term Treasury bonds. VYM's dividend yield is currently just ~1% higher than the 10-year real Treasury rate, implying overvaluation to bonds of at least ~20%. I expect VYM to fare slightly better than the S&P 500 due to its reduced exposure to growth stocks, but income-oriented investors will likely find better yields, with lower volatility, in bonds. Dilok Klaisataporn Many individual investors today focus on high dividend-paying stocks and investment f
VYM: A Low Dividend Investment With Greater Risk Than Bonds

Fannie Mae: Rising Multifamily Vacancies And Inventories Suggest Home Valuation Peak

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continue fluctuating with election odds and face immense volatility risk over the coming week. FNMA has been down since June, as Harris's ascent has lowered Trump's odds. Its Q3 results were slightly disappointing and indicated some risk in multifamily. Although the election matters over the short term, I think FNMA's 2030 value is more dependent on the economic trend and whether or not the housing market has a "soft landing." Home valuation and multifamily cap rates are unsustainably high today but were previously supported by low vacancy rates and single-family inventories. With vacancies and inventories rising, I expect housing valuations will decline in 2025-2027. Given high mortgage coverage ratios, FNMA should be safe if they do not fall too quickly. ablokh
Fannie Mae: Rising Multifamily Vacancies And Inventories Suggest Home Valuation Peak

BND: Trump Victory Could Hurt Bonds; Sweep For Either Side Worse

Trump's Polymarket election odds have a 73% R-squared to the 10-year Treasury rate, indicating that a Trump win would lower high-duration bond prices. A Republican sweep of the House and Senate may exacerbate losses by making deficit spending policies more feasible. However, the same can be argued for a Democrat sweep. My long-term view on high-duration Treasury bonds is decidedly bearish, given the bipartisan consensus against fiscal responsibility and pro-inflationary Fed policies. The bond-Trump correlation may result from foreign investment risk, with China potentially divesting US Treasuries in a trade conflict. The manufacturing economy is in a recession, but the service economy has strengthened, creating a complex outlook for 2025 unemployment. J Studios There is much speculation re
BND: Trump Victory Could Hurt Bonds; Sweep For Either Side Worse

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