Clear Secure's sharp decline in post-Q3 earnings is due to slowing customer growth and declining net member retention despite solid sales growth and profitability. The company's focus on profitability over customer acquisition and retention may hinder long-term growth, especially with regulatory risks. Clear Secure must diversify beyond airport security to unlock its full potential, but its current strategy seemingly prioritizes short-term shareholder value. While YOU has substantial sales growth and a low forward P/E ratio, given its rising profitability, its business model and management focus raise long-term growth concerns. In my view, the company must prove that it is not a "fast pass" that benefits from price discrimination but actually fulfills an identification need, particularly o

Best Buy's Q3 results missed revenue and EPS targets, with comparable sales growth at -2.9% and disappointing Q4 guidance, leading to a 7% decline Tuesday morning. The challenging macroeconomic environment, election distractions, and uncompetitive business model against Walmart and Amazon are significant headwinds for Best Buy. I remain bearish on BBY, expecting continued sales decline, potential dividend cuts, and store closures due to weak consumer demand and macroeconomic pressures. Contrary to most analysts, I doubt BBY's EPS will recover by 2027. Instead, I forecast a long-term decline that may accelerate with economic weakness next year. I plan to hold my short position in BBY until its valuation fairly discounts its chronic competitive pressures, or the company proves its ability to

Summary B. Riley's stock has fallen by 71% since I wrote a bearish opinion in 2021, as its income has declined while its balance sheet risks have grown. The company's future seems uncertain as short interest reaches 30%, making it among the most short-sold stocks today. Fundamentally, the company is operating too many segments, failing to develop a competitive edge in most, leading to low margins. B. Riley's securities lending business stands out compared to peers but could result in notable risks due to the potential undercollateralization of these loans in the event of a large market decline. Although B. Riley's risk exposure appears high, its performance may recover depending on macroeconomic circumstances. Further, its short interest is high enough that it has high short-squeeze potent

SummaryMining stocks, including Rio Tinto, BHP Group, and Glencore, have significantly increased recently as China's iron ore demand rebounded.Rio Tinto's three-year performance has been lackluster overall, unable to break into new highs despite seasonal rallies.China's economy and its demand for iron ore are the primary drivers of RIO's profitability, making it dependent on China's construction market.Tremendous efforts to support China's economy in 2023 are being proven unsuccessful, pointing toward a potential property bubble pop this year.Despite its positive qualities, the Company is too dependent on commodities that China's economy drives, giving it tremendous downside risk associated with China's potential economic depression.TexBrWhile mining stocks have not been solid in recent ye

Summary Rio Tinto has lost ~14% of its value since January, while the S&P 500 has risen by 20%, stemming from a sharp decline in iron prices. I expect China's iron ore demand to continue to plummet along with its property sector, potentially leading to a permanent 15-25% decline in global iron demand. Rio Tinto's exposure to China is exacerbated by its significant Australian iron ore mining, which has supported China's property development bubble. The coming glut in iron ore may push the commodity down into the $60 range, dramatically reducing Rio Tinto's overall EBITDA. Copper and aluminum are also negatively exposed to this trend, but they have closer ties to manufacturing demand, which may face a more transitory decline due to a global economic slowdown. Abstract Aerial Art/DigitalV

Lithium Americas offers significant long-term value despite the current lithium market glut and stock price declines due to its large Thacker Pass deposit and low-cost production potential. LAC benefits from strong US government support and General Motors' investment, positioning it well for future growth in the domestic EV supply chain. Key risks include potential project delays, cost overruns, and further lithium price declines due to economic slowdowns and increased supply. Long-term investors may find LAC undervalued. If it achieves competitive production costs and meets development timelines, it has substantial profit potential. Lithium Americas aims to have similar costs to South American miners, as lithium is less labor intensive than most mines, and the US project may have greater

Summary BND's short-term outlook is positive due to lower inflation expectations and a potential end to or reduction in QT activity. Key bond risks include potential oil price spikes from geopolitical tensions and rising corporate credit risk during stock market crashes. In the long term, BND is not ideal due to concerns about US government debt, which makes its debt unpayable without chronically elevated inflation. I expect a repeat of 2020-2022 when inflation declined in the short term but was eventually pushed to a new high as the Federal Reserve overstimulated. Speculators may take advantage of BND's current rally, but may not want to hold the ETF for too long. NoDerog/E+ via Getty Images The medium and long-term bond markets have reacted well to economic data indicating a slowdown. I'

Sprouts Farmers Market has surged 470% since I became bullish in 2021, driven by superior management and a bifurcating grocery industry. Despite its high valuation, SFM's strong growth potential and market shift away from middle-market grocers like Kroger and Albertson's continued double-digit sales growth. Projecting its growth into the 2030s, Sprouts may be reasonably valued today, given that its sales are currently far below its expanding total addressable market. Sprouts is far more expensive than Kroger and Albertsons, but is likely undervalued to Costco. Compared to Costco, Sprouts has more recession risk but far superior long-term growth potential. SFM's current valuation appears risky due to potential demand fluctuations and fickle short-term momentum traders. Kobus Louw In 2021, S

Summary B. Riley faces immense risks due to significant debt maturities, weak consumer brands, and a tarnished reputation that may harm its advisory business. Despite a 67% stock plummet, short interest remains high, indicating market skepticism about its survival and potential for a short squeeze. The company's future hinges on asset sales, creditor leniency, and potential take-private offers, making its equity value highly speculative. Given its seemingly binary prospects and the potential for significant upside, if liquidity risks are mitigated, I now have a neutral outlook on RILY. Reputation matters in investment banking, meaning B. Riley may struggle with keeping its key clients and employees. J Studios In July, I published "