Last night, two key messages: -The S&P 500 index closed above 4000 points (at 4001 points) ​ ​ -The yield of 10-year US bonds fell below 3% (as mentioned in yesterday's article, the condition for the short-term stabilization of the stock market is that the yield needs to return to below 3%) ​​ ​ Seems to be a good start. The risk alarm can be lifted in the short term, which stems from three aspects: First, the Federal Reserve sent several generals to rescue the market Williams, chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, talked about "soft landing" to inject confidence into the market. "The Federal Reserve is trying to cope with high inflation while achieving a soft landing. A rate hike would bring inflation down to nearly 4pc, before dropping to about 2.5 pc in 2023 and retu

-Open your eyes every day, as if the weather changed overnight. Wall Street knew tensions in Ukraine would continue, but did not expect a major escalation so early. If you use one word to describe the current financial market: it is completely chaotic. There is no clear main line of trading, there are false news, there are news misread by the public, there are news released by news media, and every news may affect the market. 1. The tension between Russia and Ukraine has entered the next stage ​​ ​ When Biden left the White House to give a speech in Cleveland, he told reporters that the possibility of an attack on Ukraine is very high, and it feels like it will happen in the next few days. We have reason to believe that they engage in self-directed and self-acting operations and create e

Wall Street concluded on the minutes that there is a lack of Hawkish hawkish surprises and little new information that the market does not know. -We were cheated by the Federal Reserve again. When we issued a hawkish statement in January, it seemed that we knew everything and everything was certain. Now I find out that they don't know anything. At 3:00 a.m. Beijing time, the minutes of the Fed meeting were released. This 20-page minute is a transcript of the meeting on January 27th. That is, at this meeting, the Fed completely changed into a super hawk image-announcing that QE will end in early March and raise interest rates "soon and appropriately" (the currency carnival era is over, and the Fed is starting the most historic tightening cycle).​ ​The Fed usually releases minutes three wee

The myth that US stocks kept "not falling sharply" was shattered. Friday was another night of massacres, with the Dow down nearly 1,000 points and all three major U.S. stock indexes tumbling more than 2.5%, their worst day since October 2010. ​​ ​ The Dow Jones index closed down 979.32 points, or 2.81%, to 33,813.44 points; The S&P 500 index closed down 119.36 points, or 2.72%, to 4274.30 points; Nasdaq Composite Index closed down 330.76 points, or 2.51%, to 12,843.89 points. ​​ ​ Investors withdrew $17.5 billion from global stock markets this week, the largest weekly outflow in history. There are three reasons behind the decline of US stocks this time, and each layer is more complicated than the other (not juxtaposition, but progressive relationship). The first layer of reason Tra

-Powell gave his answer after the historic 75 basis point interest rate hike.A testing Wednesday passed, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell spent his first day of congressional hearings.Judging from the market trend, Powell won. His speech did not bring much shock to the financial market. The US stock market only fell slightly, and the volatility of the global market was not much different from that of TuesdayKey points of speech:1. The Fed has no intention of triggering an economic recession, but it cannot rule out the possibility of an economic recession (acknowledging the possibility of an economic recession);2. But another risk is that we will not be able to restore price stability and will have to allow high inflation to take root in the economy. We can't fail in this task, we must b

-From today, the Federal Reserve may hold an emergency meeting at any time to start raising interest rates. -The inflation story of 2022 (and 2023) is far from over. This is an inflation report that shocked everyone. In January, the CPI of the United States bounced up by 7.5%, exceeding the 7.3% expected by economists, and even surpassing the 7.0% in December last year, setting a new record for the largest increase since March 1982. The hot inflation data raised the possibility of the Fed adopting more radical policies (the inflation rate is as high as 7.5%, but the interest rate is close to zero, which means that the Fed must act quickly). ​​ ​ In nine of the past 11 months, CPI beat Wall Street expectations, rising for the 20th straight month. One, a sensational report From the breakdo

At 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of its March meeting. The Fed usually releases its minutes three weeks after the meeting-which looks a lot smaller than February's, with 12 pages (eight pages short), compared with February's 20-page minutes. However, the fewer words, the bigger the matter, and the signal revealed in this summary is bigger than the market expected. ​​ ​ First, the main points of the summary On the Expression of Interest Rate 1) Many participants noted that one or more 50 basis point rate hikes might be appropriate at future meetings, especially if inflationary pressures continue to rise or intensify. Interpretation: It is almost certain that the interest rate will be raised by 50 basis points in May. Originally, many officials

The US stock market fell across the board, and the S&P 500 index returned to the bear market. The S&P 500 index closed down 78.81 points, or 2.02%, to 3821.30 points; The Dow Jones index closed down 490.48 points, or 1.56%, to 30,947.78 points; Nasdaq closed down 344.77 points, or 2.99%, to 11,179.78 points.​​​At the same time,-The US dollar rose by 0.519% and the euro fell by 0.61%-The yield of US Treasury bonds was basically flat, and the yield of 10-year US bonds fell by 0.2 basis points to 3.192%-Bitcoin fell back to nearly $20,000-Gold was sold again and fell to the level of 1820-Oil prices rose for the third consecutive day, and US crude oil futures rose by 2%There is a simple reason for the current trend of the market, and there is also a profound reason.On the surface, it i

-This is a chaotic reaction caused by the lack of consensus on the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates, which is a typical chaotic day. -The question now is not what the Fed will eventually do, but what the market will expect the Fed to do in the coming days and weeks. The trend of global markets on Tuesday was unusual: -Gold price rose (hit a two-week high); -The US dollar index rose; -The US stock market rose sharply (the Dow rose 1.06%, the S&P 500 index rose 0.84%, and the Nasdaq rose 1.28%); -Bitcoin rebounded to more than $45,000 today; -US bond yields rose (10-year US bond yields hit a two-year high). -In Asian trading, Chinese stocks fell sharply, with the CSI 300 index falling 2.4% in intraday trading and magically falling only 0.6% at the close. Bloomberg reported tha

This is a very fragile and unstable market, which may fluctuate greatly at any time. -If US stocks continue to plummet, according to Trump, Biden should be sent to Mars. Street blood. Last week, U.S. stocks performed worse in the last hour of every trading day, which is often a bad signal for the next day. This negative sentiment continued on Monday: Dow Jones index once fell by 3%, S&P 500 index once plunged by 4%, Nasdaq index once fell by 5%, and everyone pressed the "sell" button after the start of New York session. Before that, the major European stock indexes plunged by nearly 4%.​ US stock market opening massacre. US stocks fall hard and fast, like a professional killer who does not give any chance to hesitant targets; Like a thunderstorm in summer, lightning, strong wind and t

-It has been said for the past few months that "inflation has peaked", but it is not reflected in the data. Last night was the first time that it was really reflected in the data.After waiting for a year, I finally got good news.Inflation eased in the United States in October, and both CPI and core CPI rose lower than expected.-CPI rose by 7.7% year-on-year in October, down from 8.2% in September, and the year-on-year inflation rate of 9.1% in June was the highest in 40 years.-The core CPI excluding volatile energy and food rose by 6.3% year-on-year in October, which was lower than the 6.6% in September, and the growth rate in September was the highest since August 1982. Fed officials pay close attention to core CPI as a reflection of general price pressure and a forecast of future inflati