DavidMarlin
DavidMarlin
NYC Equity Trader | SF Quant HF Adviser | CEO of Marlin Capital | Not Investment Advice.
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avatarDavidMarlin
12-22 10:34
Hedge Funds sold US equities at the fastest pace in 8+ months last week, driven heavily by short selling.This was the fastest pace of HF short selling in ~12 months. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $GLOBAL X DOW 30® COVERED CALL ETF(DJIA)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ Image

We are entering a super bullish period for US stocks

We are entering a super bullish period for US stocks. Historically, the 2nd half of December is the 2nd strongest 2-week period of the year for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ . $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $E-mini S&P 500 - main 2503(ESmain)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $E-mini Nasdaq 100 - main 2412(NQmain)$ $.DJI(.DJI)$ ImageThe path of the SPX after the 1st Fed cut is determined by whether the economy ends up in recession or not. This time around, the SPX has been closely mirroring
We are entering a super bullish period for US stocks
The path of the $.SPX(.SPX)$ after the 1st Fed cut is determined by whether the economy ends up in recession or not. This time around, the SPX has been closely mirroring the Soft Landing path.Image

Never short a dull market

Never short a dull market. The average daily trading band for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ is currently its lowest in years.ImageThe Santa Clause rally is in progress. Look for stocks to continue to melt up into Inauguration Day in mid-January. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Amazon.com(AMZN)$ Image1 of 3 >100%+ gainers already in my Small Cap 6 $Innodata(INOD)$ setting up beautifully for the next leg higher. We’re long from $17 at
Never short a dull market
Crypto - there’s no putting the genie back in the bottle now. Since the Trump-Vance election victory, we have seen record inflows to Crypto Funds. $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ $iShares Bitcoin Trust(IBIT)$ Image
US Equities saw a record $141B in inflows over the last month, the largest monthly inflows EVER (by far). $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

Small Caps tend to heat up when the weather gets cold

1.Small Caps tend to heat up when the weather gets cold. Historically, Nov-Jan is the strongest period for the Russell 2000. $E-mini Russell 2000 - main 2412(RTYmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF(IWO)$ $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ $Innodata(INOD)$ Image2.My top way to play this trend is via my Small Cap 6 portfolio, already up a mind-boggling +140%+ equal weighted 👇👇👇Image3.December is the month of the year most likely to finish in the green. Going back to 1928, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ has finished December posit
Small Caps tend to heat up when the weather gets cold

December is the month of the year most likely to finish in the green

December is the month of the year most likely to finish in the green. Going back to 1928, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ has finished December positive 74% of the time. $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image2024 is pacing for the biggest annual outperformance of the US over Europe in 48 years.Image
December is the month of the year most likely to finish in the green

Market sentiment is SKY HIGH right now

Market sentiment is SKY HIGH right now. Goldman’s Sentiment Indicator hit +2.3 last week, its highest reading since Feb ‘18 and 4th highest in history (dates back to 2010). $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageIt measures stock positioning across retail, institutional, and foreign investors vs the past 12 months. A reading above +1.0 indicates extreme positions.The Small Cap outperformance is just beginning. $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ Image
Market sentiment is SKY HIGH right now

The Small Cap 6 after 4 months

1.The Small Cap 6 after 4 months👇👇👇+151% equal weighted3 Multi BaggersAll 6 up over 20%Fortunes are being made! $E-mini Russell 2000 - main 2412(RTYmain)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF(IWO)$ $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ $Innodata(INOD)$ Image2.Historically, the year-end Santa Claus rally begins next week. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image3.Small Caps - it doesn’t get mu
The Small Cap 6 after 4 months

Small Caps - it doesn’t get much more bullish than this

Small Caps - it doesn’t get much more bullish than this. $E-mini Russell 2000 - main 2412(RTYmain)$ 4 month base breakout on big volume following the US election, followed by a successful retest of the $2300 breakout level.A clean daily reversal formation on top of the range to boot! Very playable. Cheers $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $iShares Russell 2000 Growth ETF(IWO)$ $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ $Innodata(INOD)$ Image
Small Caps - it doesn’t get much more bullish than this

$INOD & $SEZL - Two of the superstars of Q3 earnings season

1. $Innodata(INOD)$ one of the superstars of Q3 earnings season appears to be gearing up for a continuation move higher. We are +170%!Plenty more meat left on the bone in this Small Cap AI play.Image2. $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ breaking out of this post-earnings bull flag today.We are up +400%!Clear skies ahead to $600+.ImageHistorically, Small caps outperform when the Fed starts to ease. If we are indeed entering a sustained Bull Run for Small caps, fortunes will be made owning the right stocks.
$INOD & $SEZL - Two of the superstars of Q3 earnings season
$NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ earnings Wednesday is HUGE for the whole market. NVDA has driven 20% of the $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ return over the past year & is projected to drive 25% of $.SPX(.SPX)$ EPS growth in Q3. $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Apple(AAPL)$ Image
Last week saw the strongest retail investor buying flow in over 137 weeks (since 3/22).+3.2 standard deviations above the 12M average. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$ $NVIDIA Corp(NVDA)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $MicroStrategy(MSTR)$ Image
During Trump’s first term, Bitcoin , Tech, Semis, Software, and Consumer Discretionary outperformed.Financials, China, and Utilities underperformed. $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ Image

Tech, Financials, Discretionary, and Industrials all broke out to record highs

Tech, Financials, Discretionary, and Industrials all broke out to record highs last week following Trump’s victory. This is the 1st coordinated breakout for these 4 sectors since 2021.Nothing remotely bearish about that. Broad sector strength signals potential for continued bullish momentum. History suggests gains ahead! $.SPX(.SPX)$ $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLK)$ $Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLF)$ $Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund(XLI)$ Image
Tech, Financials, Discretionary, and Industrials all broke out to record highs

The $VIX is falling -22% following Trump’s victory

The $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ is falling -22% this morning following Trump’s victory. Using history as a guide, Volatility has likely peaked for 2024. $.SPX(.SPX)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ ImageMassive day for Small Caps with the IWM finishing +5.8% on volume!We are ALREADY up: +185% on $Sezzle Inc(SEZL)$ ✅+133% on $GeneDx Holdings(WGS)$ ✅We are seeing a perfect storm for life changing gains ahead! The other 4/6 I covered in my report could be considered some form of AI plays.Historically, Small caps outperform
The $VIX is falling -22% following Trump’s victory

Institutional investors sold US stocks at the fastest pace in 9+ years

Institutional investors sold US stocks at the fastest pace in 9+ years last week, according to BofA. It was the 2nd largest weekly net selling by institutional investors since 2008 (trailing only Sep 2015). $SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust(SPY)$ $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $iShares Russell 2000 ETF(IWM)$ $Microsoft(MSFT)$ $Advanced Micro Devices(AMD)$ $Alphabet(GOOG)$ $Alphabet(GOOGL)$ ImagePS:BofA’s data on this only goes back to 2008. So 2nd largest in their data history (which started in ‘08), behind only S
Institutional investors sold US stocks at the fastest pace in 9+ years

Tech is leading the charge through Q3 earnings

So far through Q3 earnings, Tech is leading the charge. 78% of Tech stocks that have reported have beat on EPS, compared to just 51% for the $.SPX(.SPX)$ . $Invesco QQQ(QQQ)$ $NASDAQ 100(NDX)$ $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ $Netflix(NFLX)$ $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ ImageWe are now 2 years into the current Bull Market that began in October 2022. The average duration of the last 11 Bull Markets has been ~5 years, with 8/11 (73%) making it to the end of the year 3.Image
Tech is leading the charge through Q3 earnings
In prior close elections, the $.SPX(.SPX)$ typically sold off in the weeks/days leading up to Election Day, and then rallied into year end on a clear resolution.ImageImage

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