ChetanWoodun

Investment Research and Analytics from the IT perspective at Keylogin Information and Technologies Co. Ltd.

    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·10-30

      Amazon: AI-Driven ROI And Productivity, Plus Consumer Resilience

      Amazon's AWS business, leveraging NVIDIA GPUs and custom AI chips, drives high profitability and productivity gains, supporting strong investment potential despite eCommerce risks. AWS's vertically integrated AI ecosystem and GenAI productivity improvements enhance margins, with AWS contributing significantly to Amazon's operating income. Despite high CapEx and competition, AMZN's differentiated AI offerings and productivity gains justify a premium valuation, with a targeted 23.5% upside. Q3 guidance suggests the potential for Amazon to beat EPS estimates, driven by resilient consumer sentiment and strong demand for AWS and retail services. Do expect volatility in case some key economic indicators point to rates staying higher for longer. Sundry Photography Since I last
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      Amazon: AI-Driven ROI And Productivity, Plus Consumer Resilience
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·10-27

      Adobe: GenAI Is Improving Sales, But Not Fast Enough

      Adobe has been able to rapidly embed Gen AI features into its products, which are getting a lot of traction. It has also been able to generate more sales but these are progressing gradually, as it reshapes its product portfolio in a market that has been disrupted. Adobe's inability to hike pricing hints that the competition is strong while it has lost the first-mover advantage in image creation. Due to high investor expectations built into the stock price, it could suffer from further volatility. Also, as AI-driven image generation takes center stage, Microsoft, with its investment in OpenAI is now a competitor, in addition to being a partner. mvp64/E+ via Getty Images I last covered</
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      Adobe: GenAI Is Improving Sales, But Not Fast Enough
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·09-20

      American Tower: 5G Reacceleration, But Volatility Comes First (Rating Upgrade)

      Summary American Tower's (AMT) stock price appreciated by nearly 24% since February, driven by improved financial performance and a more dovish-looking Fed. The India exit, involving a $2.5 billion asset sale, impacts AMT's global ranking and revenue but aids in deleveraging and improving FFO per share. Despite challenges in 5G investment globally, AMT expects U.S. market growth and has seen increased application activity, beating Q1 and Q2 expectations. Also, CoreSite acquisition positions AMT in AI, as it moves towards the edge. This remains a rate-sensitive stock, but it deserves better given it is improving the quality of earnings by exiting emerging markets and controlling leverage. We Are/DigitalVision via Getty Images Since I last covered American Tower Corporation (NYSE:
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      American Tower: 5G Reacceleration, But Volatility Comes First (Rating Upgrade)
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·09-18

      Prologis: Pivoting To AI Data Centers In A Profitable Way

      Summary Prologis is pivoting to AI infrastructure by investing in data centers, aiming to diversify its industrial REIT portfolio and capitalize on higher-margin opportunities. The partnership with Skybox Datacenters and a $7.5 billion investment plan target significant growth, leveraging Prologis' vast real estate and clean energy expertise. Data center investments could potentially rake 50% to 100% margin gains and better FFO, despite higher initial Capex compared to warehouses. Prologis' strong cash flow and strategic capital vehicles support its transition, mitigating cyclicality risks and positioning it to benefit from the AI transformation trend. There are short-term volatility risks with higher vacancy rates and lower market rents, but real estate transactions could potentially
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      Prologis: Pivoting To AI Data Centers In A Profitable Way
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-31

      QQQE: How NVIDIA's Result Could Continue Shifting The Landscape For Equal-Weight

      Summary QQQ is a market-cap weighted ETF heavily influenced by the Mag 7 mega-caps, which has delivered well up to now. However, as the AI landscape continues to shift and the focus turns on monetization, there are pains ahead. This was demonstrated by the volatility in the aftermath of NVIDIA's financial results. Hence, QQQE's equal-weight approach makes more sense to reduce concentration risks and for diversification purposes. This thesis makes the case for further upside while adopting a cautious tone as shifts are normally accompanied by volatility risks. Vertigo3d Since I last covered the Direxion NASDAQ 100 Equal Weighted Index Shares ETF (NASDAQ:QQQE) in my bullish thesis on December 20 last year, it has returned nearly 6.75% and is
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      QQQE: How NVIDIA's Result Could Continue Shifting The Landscape For Equal-Weight
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-29

      DigitalBridge: Rapid Expansion But Wait For Progress On Costs (Rating Downgrade)

      Summary DigitalBridge's share price has slid by more than 25% despite its revenues increasing rapidly over the last year. The reason appears to be connected to profitability as expenses have varied widely, raising doubts as to what will happen when the company scales further. On the other hand, it has rapidly advanced equity assets for which it earns fees (FEEUM) to $32.7 billion while accelerating capital formation to develop more data centers together with the power needed. Also, the high expectations for earnings growth seem to be unjustified meaning that the stock could suffer from volatility. I consider it to be a Hold until it makes progress on sustainably increasing profit margins. halbergman/E+ via Getty Images Since I was
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      DigitalBridge: Rapid Expansion But Wait For Progress On Costs (Rating Downgrade)
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-28

      Qorvo: AI-Related Gains With Apple, Cost Optimization, And Potential Fed Easing

      Summary Qorvo's stock is a buy due to expected Federal Reserve rate cuts and Apple's AI-capable devices, despite recent dips and competition. The company is optimizing manufacturing, transitioning to larger wafers, managing inventory, and improving product mix to enhance gross margins. China-related risks and competition from Broadcom and Qualcomm exist, but Qorvo's segmentation strategy and outsourcing improve flexibility and gross margins. Valued better due to improved cash flow, strategic acquisitions, and AI-driven smartphone market growth, with a potential target price of $129. Eduard Lysenko Qorvo's (NASDAQ:QRVO) share price has dipped from mid-July alongside the iShares Semiconductor ETF (
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      Qorvo: AI-Related Gains With Apple, Cost Optimization, And Potential Fed Easing
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-25

      SentinelOne: Platformization, And Second Quarter Earnings Preview

      Summary There seems to be a lot of expectation that SentinelOne will benefit from customers who switch away from CrowdStrike. However, buying habits may be changing with the "platformization" of cybersecurity services. Also, a lot will depend on management updates concerning ARR during the second quarter of 2025 (FQ2) earnings call. The company is also leveraging its Singularity AI-driven platform to sell bundled solutions in a way that is more profitable and generates more cash. There is potential but I have a Hold position till there is concrete evidence that it is managing to gain more recurring revenues in a rapidly changing cybersecurity landscape. baranozdemir/iStock via Getty Images Since I last
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      SentinelOne: Platformization, And Second Quarter Earnings Preview
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-20

      Iris Energy: A Potential Buy But Questions Remain

      Summary Iris Energy is a Bitcoin miner diversified into HPC, trading at $8, well below its peak of $15. Post-halving performance saw a decline in coins mined also due to lower subsidies, planned maintenance, and technical issues while electricity prices surged. Additionally, lower digital asset prices impacted profitability in July. Iris' aggressive expansion strategy into HPC requires significant capital, raising questions about sustainability, especially given this is being done through share dilution. With no debt, this is a potential buy but subject to providing further update on electricity prices on mining operations and sustainable financing for HPC diversification. bestofgreenscreen/iStock via Getty Images If you are looking for a Bitcoin miner to invest in that is also diversified
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      Iris Energy: A Potential Buy But Questions Remain
    • ChetanWoodunChetanWoodun
      ·08-19

      Exact Sciences: Cost Optimization And Product Strength

      Summary Exact Sciences stock is down 35% since August 2021, now trading at around $58.75. The second quarter of 2024 (Q2) results beat expectations with revenue growth driven by the Cologuard screening segment. It raised adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2024, demonstrating confidence in continued sales momentum and profitability. It is likely to suffer from volatility risks as it continues to strike a balance between growth and profitability. The stock is a buy with a potential 27% upside also given the way it is improving its competitive position and leveraging AI for accelerating data analysis. Hiroshi Watanabe Since I last covered Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:NASDAQ:<
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      Exact Sciences: Cost Optimization And Product Strength
     
     
     
     

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