[EVENTS] How will SPX close on Wednesday 12 July?

Click to vote. Can you predict how will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close on Wednesday 12 July? If you get the right answers, You may divide 1000 Tiger Coins with other Tigers. In addition, you have the chance of winning Tiger Gifts.

After the June jobs report showed a cooling but still-hot picture of the labor market, investors are looking to a key inflation report due Wednesday for more clues on the economy’s health. 

The labor market added just 209,000 jobs in June, below economists’ expectations for a net gain of 225,000 jobs. That’s the smallest monthly gain since a decline in December 2020, but with stubbornly high wage growth ensuring inflation concerns remain embedded.

What are analysts saying?

Economists expect a 3.1% increase in consumer prices for the year ended in June, which would be a cooldown from a 4% annual increase in May, according to Refinitiv.

Recent data has suggested that inflation is coming down, though it remains above the Fed’s 2% target. The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, rose 3.8% for the 12 months ended in May. That’s down from the revised 4.3% annual rise seen in April.
But it’s unlikely that the June CPI report will change the Fed’s interest rate trajectory, barring a huge upside or downside surprise, especially considering that Fed officials in recent weeks have been vocal that more rate hikes are likely coming, said James Ragan, director of wealth management research at DA Davidson.

What is the market telling us?

Markets are pricing in a 92% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50% after its meeting on July 26, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The central bank is not expected to take its Fed funds rate target back down to around 5% until June 2024, according to 30-day Fed Funds futures.

From the price calculation of SPX ATM options expiring on July 12, we know that, based on last Friday's closing price of 4398, the market expects Wednesday's closing price of this week's SPX to rise by 0.42, and fall by 0.48, with the probability of decline slightly greater than that of rise.



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⏰Event Time

  • The event will last until  21:00 on Wednesday 12 July 2023

 Welcome to participate!

voteHow will SPX close on Wednesday 12 July?(Single choice)
241 people voted· Ended

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  • KD84
    ·2023-07-11
    TOP
    介于加息预期高涨,临近加息前肯定要涨一波,下周可能会跌
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  • 007ws
    ·2023-07-12
    TOP
    thanks  @TigerEvents for creating this new event for us to share views. I polled "rise" as I think the S&P still have some legs to go. Notwithstanding the huge rally in tech and AI related stocks, other stocks still have scope to go higher. Plus the FOMC is on 25-26 July. A day or two before that there's some risk off sentiment, but we are still about 2 weeks from that.
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  • koolgal
    ·2023-07-12
    TOP
    🌟🌟🌟Hurray!  The Bull has come charging back to chase away the Bear as investors are optimistic that the Feds are nearing the end of its interest rate cycle hike.  Even some Feds officials said that the end of its tightening cycle is getting close.
    The markets are waiting with bated breath the all important US CPI report today and the Producer Prices Report on Thursday.
    I predict that SPX will close higher today.
    @TigerEvents
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  • mster
    ·2023-07-11
    TOP
    $S&P 500(.SPX)$ will rise as inflation should be cooling down. Baby steps, but we’ll get there - 2% that is. @TigerEvents
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  • Alvinlimsg
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    谢谢精彩分享 @TigerEvents 👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻我投票给上涨, 今年上半年大盘强劲反弹,下半年也不会差。随着财报季临近,可能会给股市造成压力,我依然对当前标普大盘保持乐观。股市有望继续保持强劲上涨,我会继续买入特斯拉股票作为长期投资[财迷][财迷][财迷]
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    • LY1970
      Huu
      2023-07-11
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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    • wyin08
      oook
      2023-07-10
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  • Optionspuppy
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    Hopefully it rises for those that long @MiniAce
    And hopefully it falls for tjose that short @KYHBKO


    I am more neutral a strangle option guy that hopes it ranges not more than 20% and i am safe
    @Fenger1188 @sbchandra @HLPA
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    • KYHBKO
      thanks for sharing your strategy.  all the best
      2023-07-11
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    • Optionspuppy
      My prediction is rise to flat open red close green
      2023-07-10
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享😃
      2023-07-10
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  • Fenger1188
    ·2023-07-11
    TOP
    感谢 @TigerEvents 精彩分享👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻我投票给涨📈。美股今年上半年美国股市强劲走高,标普500指数踏入牛市区间。大盘股基准指数标普500指数今年迄今累计上涨超过15.03。
    自1950年以来,在标普500指数上半年涨幅超过10%的22个例子中,下半年回报率中位数为8%,胜率为82%。
    尽管银行业危机一度冲击市场,但物价涨幅整体回落等因素一定程度上提振了市场人气。参考历史走势,投资者可能有理由对未来六个月的市场行情更加乐观。人们对股市的乐观情绪日益增强,投资者最近增加了对股市的敞口。
    目前美股市值最大的八家科技公司市值合计占了标普500指数的30%。仅苹果一家公司,在上半年成功突破3万亿美元的大关。
    表现极佳的几只股票,在去年都几乎腰斩的情形下触底反弹。‌英伟达在 2023 年上半年实现了 189% 的涨幅,‌Meta上半年涨了138%。‌特斯拉年初至今的连续降价引发了市场对电动车需求的担忧,上半年特斯拉也成功翻倍。
    随着财报季临近,企业经营表现对经济软着陆的预期也有很大的影响,或许会进而将给市场估值带来压力。
    特斯拉股票是我目前最赚钱的股票,我会继续买入这只有价值的优质股票❤️❤️❤️。
    特斯拉是值得买入的股票,不过如果以一家公司的股价是由盈利能力来推动的话,短期内特斯拉不会像2020年底那样爆炸性的增长。我相信特斯拉在马斯克的带领下,未来只会越来越好,特斯拉公司重点不是环保,而是智能,未来是电动汽车的世界,特斯拉股价将会再创高峰。
    老虎证券是最喜爱❤️的投资平台,在这里投资让我安心也安全,我会继续我的投资之路。希望大家继续坚持留在老虎证券。愿大家早日财务自由,无需为生活开销而努力为钱工作。健康快乐,无忧无虑过一生❤️❤️❤️。
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  • Alvinlimsg
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    感谢 @TigerEvents 精彩分享👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻,我投票给涨😃。美股以一种令人意想不到的剧本结束了上半年。今年上半年大盘强劲反弹,下半年也不会差。随着财报季临近,可能会给股市造成压力,我依然对当前标普保持乐观。牛市会继续进行🎉🎊🥳。
    英伟达和META分别以180%和133%的涨幅引领标普500指数,特斯拉股价上涨了109%。
    近期公布的这些数据提升了投资者对美联储7月重启加息的预期,也导致本周美股市场备受压力。
    我认为美股今年上半年的涨势将延续至年底。股市有望迎来强劲上涨,个人看好特斯拉股票,首先,从运营方面来看,从上述特斯拉各季度的交付量来看,整体处于上升的趋势,从年度增长来看,更是惊人。特斯拉是只有价值的优质股票,值得长期投资 。

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    • Alvinlimsg
      👍🏻👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    FED should raise 50 bps, inflation is sticky: look at the food and housing prices, always so high and size getting smaller, no value added, very sticky inflation! [Facepalm]
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  • Success88
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    I vote raise. Most likly Fed will increase 25 basis this round. For market it expected this increase so it will still make investor to invest. It let say it zero increase the market reaction will be even better
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    • Success88
      不謝
      2023-07-11
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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  • Taurus Pink
    ·2023-07-10
    TOP
    我猜是漲的 [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭] 不知道我的答案正確與否 [笑哭] [笑哭] [笑哭]
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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  • icycrystal
    ·2023-07-10
    @LMSunshine @koolgal @SR050321 @Universe宇宙 @GoodLife99 come vote and win coins [smile] [smile] [smile]
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    • koolgal
      Thanks for sharing my friend 😍😍😍
      2023-07-11
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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    • Universe宇宙
      [ShakeHands]
      2023-07-10
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  • SPOT_ON
    ·2023-07-11
    i will vote it will rise slightly... already quite high... the risk reward bo longer there

    @TigerEvents
    @MHh
    @Mrzorro
    @Success88
    @StarLuck
    @Aqa
    @GoodLife99
    @Ron18

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  • Bons
    ·2023-07-12
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  • GoodLife99
    ·2023-07-12
    come vote Tigers!
    how will $S&P 500(.SPX)$ close on Wed!

    @rL @Shyon @Aqa @b1uesky

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    • GoodLife99Replying toShyon
      voted the same too [Happy]
      2023-07-12
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    • Shyon
      Up up up? Haha
      2023-07-12
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  • Ah ping
    ·2023-07-11
    我投给涨,大家不要错过这轮牛市😄祝大家好运🍀🍀🍀❤️
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  • 安安0715
    ·2023-07-10
    Rise😃😃😃看好标普会大涨🚀🚀🚀
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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  • WanEH
    ·2023-07-10
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    • Fenger1188
      谢谢分享👍🏻
      2023-07-11
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    • BenjiFuji
      [Grin]
      2023-07-10
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  • Mrzorro
    ·2023-07-10
    I vote for rise...it time to 🚀
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  • CL_Wong
    ·2023-07-12
    Thank you @TigerEvents
    I vote Rise
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