China Stocks Climb for Second Day ,Will It affect the US stock market?
Following the latest Good News and Headlines, Chinese stocks have risen for two days in a row,But, as an overseas investment, no matter how good chinese market is, it should have little to do with US stocks. After chinese market being closed, US stocks will go their own way in the evening, so you should not be too excited.
Historically, chinese market used to have two bottoms (calculated by index), one is the policy bottom and the other is the market bottom. With the current policy strength, the probability of policy bottom is very high, while the market bottom is often 2-3 months after the policy bottom, and a large part of the stocks at the market bottom will still hit a new low, so we should be cautious about it
Will Chinese shares drive US stocks?
It is definitely far from saying that Chinese stocks drive US stocks, but at present, when there is a certain correlation between Chinese and US stock markets, Asian trading time should make US stock indexes relatively better.
However, the problems of the US stock index itself still depend on the attitude of the Federal Reserve to control inflation and the expected situation of economic recession, so any good news at present can only be treated as a rebound for the US stock index.
Last week, the trend of the US stock index was quite technical, and the 20-day moving average still had miraculous effect, but the trend was much weaker than the news, which indicated that the actual bad news of US stocks had not been fully realized, and there was still the possibility of accelerating the decline in the future.
It is very likely that the market bottom of A shares in the future will be driven by the decline of the US stock index, so it is better to observe the bottom by two indexes.
The current situation of the US stock index is obviously still in a weak position, and the 20-day moving average is still an important trend tracking line. After the sharp rebound of S&P last week, there was a typical peak trend of US stock index in recent years-head and shoulder top.
At present, the neckline of this form is near 4370, which is about 270 points away from the recent high point, which means that once the neckline falls below, the measured decline of S&P will fall to the range of 4000-4100, which provides a good basis for the future US stock index strategy. Therefore, strategically, without breaking 4500 points, S&P is still short. When the stock index falls to around 4000, we will look at the fermentation of bad news and how to bargain. At the time point, we are still short until around October (around China's National Day holiday).
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Any positive or negative news about the Chinese economy or the Chinese stock market could also affect the US stock market.
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