Can SPX. break the Leap Day curse and close higher?
Today is Leap Day. February 29th, a date that only occurs once every four years.
Its origin goes back over 2000 years to when Julius Caesar fixed the calendar in 45 BCE, acknowledging a year is a bit longer than 365 days.
How will market perform on this special day?
It's worth noting that $S&P 500(.SPX)$ has risen for 4 consecutive months. As of now, the monthly gain for February stands at 4.62%!
Historical data suggests that both the $S&P 500(.SPX)$ and $DJIA(.DJI)$ tend to underperform.
Since 1950, Leap Day has experienced gains only 38.5% and 30.8% of the time. It's noteworthy that US stock indices have declined on each of the past three Leap Days.
Source: TradingView, StoneX
Some believe Leap Day will bring forth a once-every-four-years curse, leading to a market downturn tonight in the US stock market.
Others think February will post a strong ending, with the S&P closing higher on the last day. The anticipated correction that the market has been worried about and waiting for might occur in March.
How will S&P 500 close on the special February 29th? Green or Red?
After another happy month, how do you expect for March?
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🌟🌟🌟All eyes will be on the all important PCE report tomorrow. If it is higher than expected, it could mean further delays to the Feds cutting interest rate. However if it is lower than expected the markets may jump.
Whatever the outcome maybe, the next Leap Year will be in 4 years' time. As a long term investor it does not really matter as this is just a small blip in the scheme of things. The S&P500 has always been on a uptrend over the years with a few years down. This is the normal volatility in the markets and is the price we pay to receive outsized gains in the long term.
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I foresee march to be another good month. call me hopeful, but what's life without hope?
fun fact... did you know that leap day is a day for women could propose to men?
歷史數據表明$標準普爾500（。SPX）$和$道瓊斯（。DJI）$往往表現不佳。
自1950年以來，閏日的漲幅僅爲38.5%和30.8%。值得注意的是，在過去的三個閏日，美國股票指數每天都在下跌。
From a seasonality standpoint, however, there's a possibility of a pullback in March.