Chase Rally After a 10x Increase or Buy Undervalued Assets?
$Micron Technology(MU)$’s earnings report far exceeded expectations, with fourth-quarter revenue growing 93% year-over-year. Management attributed the strong growth to the robust demand for AI, which drove significant growth in their data center DRAM products and industry-leading HBM chips.
This earnings report undoubtedly reassures those who have been skeptical about AI over the past two months. Nvidia's stock rose 2% pre-market, and SOXL surged 10%.
Will this rebound push Nvidia back to $140 or even higher?
Market opinions are divided. However, the most important aspect of investing is to follow your own beliefs and style.
Many people are hesitant to chase Nvidia's rise, feeling that it’s too expensive, given that Nvidia has already increased tenfold over the past year.
But how have companies that achieved a tenfold increase within 1-2 years performed historically?
$Amazon.com(AMZN)$ : When Amazon went public in 1997, its stock was about $5, and by the peak of the dot-com bubble in 1999, it had soared to over $100, a more than 20x increase. While the stock saw a significant drop after the dot-com bubble burst, the short-term rise in just two years was remarkable.
$Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ : Tesla's stock was around $30 (split-adjusted) in 2020, and by early 2021, it had reached nearly $300, a tenfold increase within a year—similar to Nvidia's surge over the past year.
$Zoom(ZM)$ : Zoom's stock price was around $60 when it went public in 2019, and during the pandemic in 2020, it skyrocketed to over $560, a nearly tenfold increase. However, Zoom’s stock is now back down to just $67.
If you're hesitant to buy into Nvidia after its significant rise, would you consider undervalued Chinese assets?
After a slight pullback yesterday, $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ surged 24% pre-market today. Looking at its yearly performance, YINN hit its lowest point of $13.4 in January 2023 since its inception in 2011.
Goldman Sachs Trading Desk notes that "Long China" is currently the most crowded trade on Wall Street.
However, many investors still believe that the rise in Chinese assets is short-lived and unsustainable.
Do you believe that top-performing stocks will always be winners, while declining stocks will continue to fall?
Which asset will you choose?
Or will you stay out of this speculative frenzy altogether?
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When it comes to choosing an asset, I would prefer to invest in fundamentally strong companies with solid growth potential and a sustainable business model. However, I would also consider diversifying my portfolio to mitigate risks.
As for staying out of the speculative frenzy, I think it's essential to approach the market with caution. While speculative investments can offer high rewards, they also come with significant risks. A balanced strategy that combines some level of risk with stable investments seems prudent.
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