Chinese assets are heading for a bull market or a bear market?

Tiger_comments
10-08

Has the rise in Chinese assets come to an end?

Today, Hong Kong stocks saw a sharp drop:

$HSI(HSI)$ fell more than 8%, $HSTECH(HSTECH)$ dropped more than 11%, and $China A50 Index - main 2410(CNmain)$ fell over 10%, while $Direxion Daily FTSE China Bull 3X Shares(YINN)$ lost 36% in the premarket trading.

However, China A-shares surged, $SSE Comp(000001.SH)$ gains 5%, while $ChiNext(399006)$ rises 17%.

A dramatic financial-themed image with red as the main color. The backdrop features an abstract representation of China's skyline and its flag. A small, fierce tiger is placed in the corner, much smaller in size, symbolizing market volatility. Financial graphs and market indicators in the background show both steep rises and sharp drops, highlighting the tension in Chinese assets.A dramatic financial-themed image with red as the main color. The backdrop features an abstract representation of China's skyline and its flag. A small, fierce tiger is placed in the corner, much smaller in size, symbolizing market volatility. Financial graphs and market indicators in the background show both steep rises and sharp drops, highlighting the tension in Chinese assets.

Why HK stocks plunged?

The sharp rise in Hong Kong stocks ahead of the National Day holiday had already priced in expectations for today's meeting. However, no substantial policy measures were announced at today's meeting.

Additionally, a large amount of capital flowed into A-shares, while the outflow led to a continued decline in Hong Kong stocks.

In Hong Kong, the technology, real estate, and brokerage sectors generally performed poorly, while A-shares benefited from the strong performance of the semiconductor and liquor sectors. This sector rotation reflects different expectations for future growth between the two markets.

Recently, the surge in Chinese assets has been significant, and just yesterday, $China A50 Index - main 2410(CNmain)$ reached a record high. This often signals increased volatility and potential pullbacks.

Do you think Chinese assets are heading for a bull market or a bear market?

Have you took profit yesterday?

Leave your comments and pick your side to win tiger coins~

# China Equities Back! Do You Catch Up Rally?

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Comment（19）

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  • Sda
    ·10-08
    个人认为會走向熊市，牛市啱啱过去咗，止盈一半冇止盈一半唯有再等一段时间再止盈睇多中国资产
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  • highhand
    ·10-08
    Hang seng hit resistance about 23000. Pullback is normal and healthy even if it's a new bull market. Need to see where the pullback stops. 19600 looks like a good support. I don't hold any China HK stocks, so I just eat popcorn and watch the show. However, some US stocks retail/luxury stocks like EL and LVMUY may be affected by China's growth, since there's a growing market there. Let's see what happens.
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  • MilkTeaBro
    ·10-08
    it just started bull market
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  • neo26000
    ·10-08
    Obviously bull market. And this is no bull. Bull run also must take a break, no? [Glance]
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·10-08
    TOP
    @TigerGPT can you summarize what 08 Oct 2024 policy measures meeting is all about using 8 paragraphs, and get info from the Internet if needed, and also include what the market expectations are.
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    • TigerGPT: 

      The 08 Oct 2024 policy measures meeting in China did not result in substantial policy announcements. However, Premier Li Qiang emphasized the need for all sides to actively implement measures to stabilize growth and exercise caution when introducing contractionary or suppressive policies. The implementation of policies should consider timing, strength, and pace, according to Premier Li. You can find more details in the news article.

      Market expectations surrounding the meeting have improved following the adoption of new policies. Investors have aligned their expectations more closely with the Federal Reserve, with U.S. Treasury markets now pricing in two 25 basis-point rate cuts in November and December. The Fed's base case is a soft landing, with inflation falling without damaging the economy and labor market, and growth moving to its potential rate of close to 2%. This has influenced investor expectations. For more information, you can refer to the news article and market talk.

      Regarding the performance of Chinese assets, Hong Kong stocks experienced a sharp drop, while A-shares surged. The decline in Hong Kong stocks can be attributed to the absence of substantial policy measures and the outflow of capital. The technology, real estate, and brokerage sectors in Hong Kong performed poorly, while the semiconductor and liquor sectors in A-shares benefited from strong performance. This sector rotation reflects different expectations for future growth between the two markets.

      As for whether Chinese assets are heading for a bull market or a bear market, it is difficult to determine based on the current information. The recent surge in Chinese assets, including the record high reached by the China A50 Index, suggests increased volatility and potential pullbacks. Investors should carefully evaluate the market conditions and consider their own investment strategies.

      Risk Disclaimer: The information provided here is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. It is important to conduct thorough research and consider your risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

      10-08
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  • fir3tiger
    ·10-08
    bull
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·10-08
    TOP
    @TigerGPT 完了 完了 完了 芭比Q了 真的芭比Q了 真的完蛋了 怎么会这样 怎么变这样 真的芭比Q了 芭比Q了! [OMG]
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    • TigerGPT: 

      根据相关信息，我收集到了一些与中国资产市场的当前情况有关的观点和文章。以下是一些新闻观点的摘要和链接：

      EMC Labs 9月报告：扬帆起航，货币扩张或拉开涨势的下半场：该报告认为，随着利率的降低确定，中国资本市场将进入牛市的下半场。

        

      4个原因支持高盛预测：中国股市将再涨20%：高盛列出了四个支持其预测的原因，预计中国股市还有15%至20%的上涨空间。

        

      财富网：中国股市可能进一步飙升，随着中国内地部分市场重新开放：根据一份美国银行的报告，如果没有更多积极的推动因素，中国股市可能面临回调的风险。

        

      彭博社：中国股市是突破还是败局？：即使在最近的上涨后，中国股票仍然不算贵。MSCI中国指数的前瞻市盈率为11.4倍，大约只有标普500指数的一半。

        

      根据这些观点和文献，目前的情况是比较乐观的。一些观点支持中国资产进入牛市下半场，并预测股市还有上涨空间。然而，也有一些观点警告说，没有更多的积极因素，中国股市可能会面临回调风险。因此，股市中仍然存在一定的波动性和潜在的回调风险。

      请注意以上信息仅供参考，并不能构成投资建议。在进行财务决策之前，请自行进行充分的研究和评估，并据此决定是否进行投资操作。

      风险提示：投资股市涉及风险，资本市场具有不确定性，可能导致投资损失。在进行投资之前，请确保您对投资产品和市场具有充分的了解，并根据自身情况做出理性的决策。

      10-08
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  • Universe宇宙
    ·10-08
    @TigerGPT some say that this is a normal pull back in a normal bull run, what do you think, my buddy?
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    • TigerGPT: 

      Regarding the recent market movements in Chinese assets, let's analyze the situation step by step:

      Normal Pullback in a Normal Bull Run: Some market participants may believe that the recent drop in Chinese assets is a normal pullback within a bull market. In a typical bull market, there are periodic pullbacks and corrections, which serve as healthy price adjustments before the market continues its upward trend. However, it's important to note that market movements are influenced by various factors, and a comprehensive analysis is needed to determine the underlying market trend.

        

      Bull or Bear Market for Chinese Assets: At the moment, it is too early to definitively determine whether Chinese assets are heading towards a bull or bear market. Market trends depend on a multitude of factors, including economic conditions, policy changes, and global market dynamics. It is crucial to monitor these factors and conduct thorough analysis to make informed investment decisions.

        

      Sharp Drop in Hong Kong Stocks: On the recent trading day, Hong Kong stocks experienced a significant decline. HSI (Hang Seng Index) fell over 8%, HSTECH dropped over 11%, and China A50 Index (CNmain) fell more than 10%. The decline in Hong Kong stocks can be attributed to several factors, including the lack of substantial policy measures announced during a meeting and the outflow of capital towards A-shares. Sector-wise, the technology, real estate, and brokerage sectors in Hong Kong performed poorly, while the semiconductor and liquor sectors in A-shares showed strength.

        

      Rise in China A-Shares: In contrast to the drop in Hong Kong stocks, China A-shares saw a surge, with SSE Comp (000001.SH) gaining 5% and ChiNext (399006) rising 17%. This sector rotation reflects different growth expectations between the two markets. It is important to note that the surge in Chinese assets, including the China A50 Index, has been significant recently, and such levels often signal increased volatility and the potential for pullbacks.

        

      In conclusion, it is essential to conduct thorough analysis and monitor multiple factors when assessing the direction of a market. The recent market movements in Chinese assets highlight the need for careful consideration of economic conditions, policy changes, and global market dynamics. As always, it is crucial to align investment decisions with individual risk tolerance, goals, and investment time horizon.

      Risk Disclaimer:The information provided is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. It is important to conduct your own research and consider your investment objectives and risk tolerance before making any investment decisions.

      10-08
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  • MasterStonker
    ·10-08
    Bull la, how to bear. So many years bear liao
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  • Cadi Poon
    ·10-08
    港股在國慶長假前的大漲，已經消化了對今天會議的預期。然而，無實質性政策措施是在今天的會議上宣佈的。

    此外，大量資金流入A股，而流出導致港股持續下跌。

    港股方面，科技、地產、券商板塊普遍表現不佳，A股則受益於半導體、白酒板塊的強勢表現。這種板塊輪動反映了兩個市場對未來增長的不同預期。

    近期中國資產大漲顯著，而就在昨天，$中國A50指數-主2410(CNmain)$創歷史新高。這通常預示着波動性增加和潛在回調。

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  • MHh
    ·10-08
    I took profit recently and yesterday decided to enter a small position in some stocks to bet as good news by the Chinese government today. As proven repeatedly, the Chinese are really not good at keeping the stock market up. Each time, the rally is quickly wiped and gains are spared. Really not good for the Chinese and HK markets if this cycle keeps happening and the government just waste their bullets…I will wait for the bear again… no rush. Just keep playing on this cycle.
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  • Success88
    ·10-08
    Sorry didn't follow on China stock as busy with work this Oct
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  • ECLC
    ·10-09
    Normal pullback after sharp rise. Still heading bull market.
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  • DiAngel
    ·10-11
    Never recovered. [Cry][Cry]. Just when I thought I could sell off my China UT, it just 📉📉📉📉📉📉[Cry][Cry]😭😭😭😭
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  • nomadic_m
    ·10-13
    Bullish on Chinese stocks long-term due to pro-growth policies, market liberalization, and emerging tech focus. However, cautious of regulatory risks, policy uncertainty, and economic headwinds. Mitigating risks with:

    - 5-10% allocation (satellite position)
    - Gradual scaling, profit-taking during surges
    - Active monitoring of policy developments

    Balancing China's growth potential with risk management.

    $CSI China Internet ETF(KWEB)$
    $iShares China Large-Cap ETF(FXI)$

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  • YueShan
    ·10-09
    Good ⭐️⭐️⭐️
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