Is DJT a Casino Play? Time to Short the Stock Before Election?
$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ shot up 21% yesterday, with a gain of 194% this month.
1. Wall Street is All-In on a Trump Victory! But is Polymarket’s Win Probability Reliable?
A Bloomberg article suggests that in Polymarket's election prediction market, a few large accounts are influencing Trump’s victory odds through concentrated bets.
These "whale" bettors, including several accounts operated by a French investor, have recently poured millions into bets on Trump.
For example, on October 17, these accounts placed $5.2 million in a 12-hour period, pushing Trump’s win probability up by about 4%.
2. Beware of the Harris Surprise Risk!
Nomura warns that the market has over-hedged for a “Trump victory,” potentially overlooking the risk of a "Harris surprise."
A “blue sweep,” where Democrats take a majority in both chambers of Congress, could be the only scenario leading to a significant market drop, with stocks potentially declining 7% to 10% in the following one to three months.
Meanwhile, stocks related to Trump’s pro-growth and deregulation themes may face closing risks, and safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies could see pressure as risk appetite wanes.
3. Will $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ Pull Back No Matter Who Wins?
Rumor has it that even bar models in New York are buying DJT, reflecting the market’s “greed” phase.
Betting on Trump and DJT seems to be the trend, with call option IV hitting over 300%. However, some investors believe that DJT could retreat even if Trump wins, as market expectations are sky-high.
After the election, we may see a “sell the news” reaction. Selling calls on DJT at $115 expiring November 15 could be a way to short volatility and collect premiums (though DJT is high-risk, so demo accounts are recommended over real trades).
Is DJT now a “casino play”?
Would you go long or short on DJT?
How do you view the Polymarket winning rates?
Will this election have unexpected results like in 2016?
Does betting on the U.S. election now mean gambling?
Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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與此同時，與特朗普促增長和放松管制主題相關的股票可能面臨收盤風險，隨着風險偏好減弱，黃金和加密貨幣等避險資產可能面臨壓力。
這些“鯨魚”投注者，包括一名法國投資者運營的幾個賬戶，最近投入數百萬美元押注特朗普。