Is DJT a Casino Play? Time to Short the Stock Before Election?

$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ shot up 21% yesterday, with a gain of 194% this month.

1. Wall Street is All-In on a Trump Victory! But is Polymarket’s Win Probability Reliable?

A Bloomberg article suggests that in Polymarket's election prediction market, a few large accounts are influencing Trump’s victory odds through concentrated bets.

These "whale" bettors, including several accounts operated by a French investor, have recently poured millions into bets on Trump.

For example, on October 17, these accounts placed $5.2 million in a 12-hour period, pushing Trump’s win probability up by about 4%.

2. Beware of the Harris Surprise Risk!

Nomura warns that the market has over-hedged for a “Trump victory,” potentially overlooking the risk of a "Harris surprise."

A “blue sweep,” where Democrats take a majority in both chambers of Congress, could be the only scenario leading to a significant market drop, with stocks potentially declining 7% to 10% in the following one to three months.

Meanwhile, stocks related to Trump’s pro-growth and deregulation themes may face closing risks, and safe-haven assets like gold and cryptocurrencies could see pressure as risk appetite wanes.

3. Will $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ Pull Back No Matter Who Wins?

Rumor has it that even bar models in New York are buying DJT, reflecting the market’s “greed” phase.

Betting on Trump and DJT seems to be the trend, with call option IV hitting over 300%. However, some investors believe that DJT could retreat even if Trump wins, as market expectations are sky-high.

After the election, we may see a “sell the news” reaction. Selling calls on DJT at $115 expiring November 15 could be a way to short volatility and collect premiums (though DJT is high-risk, so demo accounts are recommended over real trades).

Is DJT now a “casino play”?

Would you go long or short on DJT?

How do you view the Polymarket winning rates?

Will this election have unexpected results like in 2016?

Does betting on the U.S. election now mean gambling?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~

# US Election Wrap-up: How Will Trump Affect Market?

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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Comment（19）

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MicroStrategist
·10-29
I am long till election then it's cash in time , MAGA 🤑
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KingWQ
·10-29
to the moond
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Success88
·10-29
I keep the finger crossed 🤞. They might be a chance to pull back at last day before elections
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highhand
·10-29
this stock surely can short soon. no fundamentals and technicals show so many flush up candlesticks... just waiting for a bearish candlestick to form now....
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Universe宇宙
·10-29
@TigerGPT what is the target stock price range for $Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$
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- TigerGPT:
  Analysis of Trump Media & Technology (DJT)
  Business and Industry: Trump Media & Technology (DJT) is the operator of the Truth Social site. The company has recently gained significant attention due to its association with former President Donald Trump. It is difficult to tie the recent market moves to company fundamentals, as the stock's volatility may be influenced by perceptions of Trump's chances of winning the election and traders taking speculative positions.
  Earnings and Forecasts: The supplementary information does not provide specific details about the company's recent earnings and earnings forecast. It is important to consider that DJT is a relatively new company and its financial performance may be influenced by various factors, including market sentiment towards Donald Trump and the success of the Truth Social platform.
  Recent Trends: DJT has shown strong momentum in recent days, with a gain of 21% in the previous session and a 194% gain for the month. The stock closed at $47.36 (USD) on October 29, 2024. The current support price is $25.25 (USD), and the resistance price is $47.45 (USD). The average cost is $31.46 (USD). It is worth noting that these figures are based on historical data and market conditions may change.
  Analyst Viewpoints: The supplementary information does not provide specific analyst target prices for DJT. However, there are articles discussing the recent rally in DJT and its association with Trump's perceived chances of winning the election. It is important to consider both bullish and bearish viewpoints and evaluate the potential risks and rewards associated with investing in DJT.
  News Viewpoints: The provided news articles related to DJT highlight the recent rally in the stock. One article discusses the stock's significant gains since its last low and questions whether it is too late to join the party. Another article raises the question of whether DJT is a "casino play" and suggests considering shorting the stock before the election. Additionally, there are articles discussing the spike in DJT's stock price and its highest level since May.
  Overall, DJT has experienced significant price appreciation recently, but it is important to note that the stock's performance may be influenced by various factors, including the outcome of the election and market sentiment towards Trump and the Truth Social platform.
  Disclaimer: The information provided above is for reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investing in stocks involves risks, and the market can be volatile. It is important to conduct thorough research, consider your risk tolerance, and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
  Click here for the article "DJT Rallying 280% Since Last Low—Is It Too Late to Join the Party?"
  Click here for the article "Is DJT a Casino Play? Time to Short the Stock Before Election?"
  Click here for the article "Trump Media Stock Spikes. DJT Now at Highest Level Since May. -- Barrons.com"
  Click here for the article "Trump Media & Technology Group Shares Advance Premarket, Extending Gains After Trump's Campaign Rally"
  Click here for the article "Trump Media & Technology Group Shares up 9.6% Premarket After Climbing 21.6% in Previous Session"
  10-29
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MHh
·10-29
TOP
Totally feels like casino play to where a DJT stock is bought to signify support for a trump win! I feel that it has gone too crazy up, that it feels like a meme stock. I won’t touch it as beyond my risk appetite. The few polymarket are manipulating the prices but not necessarily sure win. I do hope that the election results will be like 2016! I won’t be betting/ gambling on the US election.
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- MHh:
  @SPOT_ON @Fenger1188 @HelenJanet @rL @Wayneqq @Kaixiang @Universe宇宙 @Success88 @DiAngel @SR050321 come join
  10-29
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TimothyX
·10-29
A彭博社文章建議，在Polymarket的選舉預測市場，少數大賬戶正在通過集中下注影響特朗普的勝算。

這些“鯨魚”投注者，包括一名法國投資者運營的幾個賬戶，最近投入數百萬美元押注特朗普。
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Cadi Poon
·10-29
民主黨在國會參衆兩院均佔多數的“藍色橫掃”可能是導致市場大幅下跌的唯一情況，未來一到三個月內，股市可能會下跌7%到10%。

與此同時，與特朗普促增長和放松管制主題相關的股票可能面臨收盤風險，隨着風險偏好減弱，黃金和加密貨幣等避險資產可能面臨壓力。
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Alubin
·10-29
Feels more of a casino play with how fluctuating it is without any real fundamentals.
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Mrzorro
·10-29
We always make decisions in our life no matter whether they are good or bad. DJT might be a casino play, but it is also a good opportunity for some investors, whether long or short, is up to them. As long as you can take the risk, the US election is a big game! Ready for roller coaster ride!
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WanEH
·10-29
sure is casino play. cause it will.drop badly if trump lose in election
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jislandfund
·10-29
interesting roller coaster get it while you can
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ECLC
·10-30
DJT is a "casino play"? Will not long or short on such high-risk stock.
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AN88
·10-30
yea it does sound like a casino play now but I will still go long on djt. this election do sound like gambling
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icycrystal
·10-30
TOP
staying out of this, ain't not gonna gamble [What] [What] [What]

@Universe宇宙 @LMSunshine @koolgal @Shyon @Aqa @GoodLife99 @rL @HelenJanet @SPACE ROCKET @TigerGPT

Is DJT now a “casino play”?

Would you go long or short on DJT?

How do you view the Polymarket winning rates?

Will this election have unexpected results like in 2016?

Does betting on the U.S. election now mean gambling?

Leave your comments and also post to win tiger coins~
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- TigerGPT:
  特朗普媒体科技集团（DJT）目前的股票分析如下：
  公司资本流动：最近5天的资本流动情况如下：
  10-22：流入 2722.22 万元
  10-23：流入 456.16 万元
  10-24：流出 16.31 万元
  10-25：流入 277.66 万元
  10-28：流入 3904.6 万元
  
  赢利率：2024-10-28 的赢利率为 0.9928。
  
  支撑价格：2024-10-28 的支撑价格为 25.25 美元。
  
  阻力价格：2024-10-28 的阻力价格为 47.45 美元。
  
  平均成本：2024-10-28 的平均成本为 31.46 美元。
  
  资本流动情况（1天）：总流入为 31.25 亿美元，总流出为 32.15 亿美元。其中，大单买入为 6.78 亿美元，中单买入为 4.34 亿美元，小单买入为 20.14 亿美元，大单卖出为 6.69 亿美元，中单卖出为 4.58 亿美元，小单卖出为 20.88 亿美元。
  
  股票价格：截至 2024-10-30，股票的价格为 51.51 美元。
  
  请记住，以上分析仅供参考，不能被视为投资建议。在股票市场中存在固有风险和正常波动，投资者在做出投资决策前应独立思考。
  请注意以上声明，投资要谨慎，风险自负。
  10-30
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nomadic_m
·11-04
$Trump Media & Technology(DJT)$ is for non Americans to vote. team trump buys, team Kamala shorts 🤣
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pizzix
·10-29
Kinda high risk
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To The Moon