Pullback!! Dip Buying Chance or Time to Sell & Hold Cash?
Following news of Israel’s airstrike on Iran, $Cboe Volatility Index(VIX)$ surged sharply, and U.S. stocks fell across the board.
The VIX is generally considered optimistic when below 15, normal in the 15–20 range, and increasingly volatile between 20–30. After today’s spike, the volatility index has risen to 20. The last two notable VIX surges occurred during the steep selloff in April and the “Black Monday” of August last year.
Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index remains in the "greed" zone at 60, suggesting the market isn't fully panicking yet.
So, is this just a small pullback or the beginning of real pain? Is it time to dip buy?
Many believe that market declines triggered by geopolitical conflicts are typically short-lived — unless there’s a spike in oil prices leading to broader inflationary pressures.
In an extreme scenario, if Iran shuts down the Strait of Hormuz or Israel directly targets Iranian oil fields, $WTI Crude Oil - main 2507(CLmain)$ could break above $100, significantly pushing up CPI. However, during past conflicts, such extreme actions have not materialized.
A more concerning factor is that starting mid-June, corporate buybacks will enter their blackout period, and CTAs may stop buying. At the same time, market sentiment appears to be rotating toward safe-haven assets.
On Thursday, $US30Y(US30Y.BOND)$ auctioned $22 billion. The auction was well received, especially with strong demand from foreign buyers. The awarded yield was 4.844%, the highest since January this year, up from 4.819% on May 8.
On June 13, Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish gold forecast, stating that structurally strong central bank gold buying will drive gold to $3,700/oz by end-2025, and possibly $4,000/oz by mid-2026.
Would you go for inverse ETF or buy the dip?
$ProShares UltraShort S&P500(SDS)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short S&P 500(SPXU)$ $ProShares Short S&P 500(SH)$ $ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ(SQQQ)$ $ProShares Short QQQ(PSQ)$
How do you interpret the market’s reaction to geopolitical tensions?
Is this a buying opportunity?
Or is this just another confirmation of the old wisdom: Sell in May and go away?
REWARDS
All valid comments will receive 5 Tiger Coins
The first 10 and last 10 valid comments will receive an additional 10 Tiger Coins
Join our topic and post directly or leave your comments to win tiger coins~
Plus, you can stand a chance to get $5 stock vouchers. Event detail to click: 10*100 Tiger Coins!! Plus 5 Stock Vouchers? Check Have You Won the Prizes?
Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.
As for me, I would continue to stay invested by dollar cost averaging into SPLG and IAU ETFs.
$SPDR Portfolio S&P 500 ETF(SPLG)$ tracks the S&P500 Index, offering broad exposure to the best and strongest US Large Cap stocks. It has a low expense ratio of just 0.02% and has shown steady long term growth.
$iShares Gold Trust(IAU)$ is a Gold backed ETF which serves as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical risks. Given the current Israel Iran conflict, Gold prices may rise as investors seek safe haven assets.
While headlines may drive fear, I believe that my long term strategy of dollar cost averaging into SPLG and IAU can weather global disruptions.
The key is to stay proactive not reactive.
@Tiger_comments @TigerStars @Tiger_SG @CaptainTiger
better to stay constant when investing. not aggressive though [What] [What] [What]
How do you interpret the market’s reaction to geopolitical tensions?
Is this a buying opportunity?
Or is this just another confirmation of the old wisdom: Sell in May and go away?
REWARDS
All valid comments will receive 5 Tiger Coins
Your coins have been sent! Check notification in community and find the coin![Tongue][Heart][Applaud]
Risk management is essential, as escalating tensions could spike volatility indices. Geopolitical shocks often result in temporary pullbacks followed by recoveries, so understanding the market's recovery potential is vital. Alternatives include shifting to defensive sectors like utilities, healthcare, or consumer staples, or employing hedging strategies using options or inverse ETFs to mitigate potential losses. Focus on aligning any action with your risk tolerance and market outlook.
但我更关注的是，这种下跌到底是真实的趋势反转，还是一次情绪化的回调？从历史经验来看，多数地缘政治事件对市场的冲击是短期的，尤其是如果不影响全球供应链或者美元流动性的话，很快就会恢复。换句话说，市场反应可能“过度”了。
所以我倾向于认为，这种回调更像是一次“技术性洗盘”，是让市场重新获得上行动力的过程。对我来说，是否是买入机会，关键看两点：第一，跌的是什么？如果是基本面没变的优质资产，那就是机会；第二，看市场是否出现恐慌性抛售，比如放量急跌，反而是我逐步加仓的信号。
总结一句话：不是每次回调都该抄底，但优质资产永远值得在别人恐慌时慢慢捡。情绪波动的背后，才是理性投资的好时机。
Be steady and not panic during bad times