To The Moon

It is a strange behaviour that global markets had largely shrugged off Trump’s tariff threats on the week of July 7 - 11.

For instance, on Thu, 10 Jul 2025, the S&P 500 & Nasdaq closed at record highs - despite Trump announcing a +50% tariff on Brazil the day before.

Similarly, on Fri, 11 Jul 2025, the 35% tariff announced on Canada sent US stocks lower although losses were relatively contained compared to the tariff turmoil of March & April.

Investors seemed to interpret the developments more as political posturing than immediate economic threats.

With (a) stocks at record highs and (b) trade uncertainty lingering, investors are divided, on whether markets are complacent or there is room to push higher.

By the time market closed for the week:

• DJIA: -0.63% (-279.13 to 44,371.51).

• S&P 500: -0.33% (-20.71 to 6,259.75). posted 12 new highs and 4 new lows

• Nasdaq: -0.22% (-45.14 to 20,585.53). recorded 58 new highs and 43 new lows.

For the week:

• DJIA: fell -457.02 points, or -1.0%.

• S&P 500: fell -19.60 points, or -0.3%.

• Nasdaq: fell -15.57 points, or -0.1%.

Year-to-date:

• DJIA: up 1,827.29 points, or +4.3%.

• S&P 500: up 378.12 points, or +6.4%.

• Nasdaq: up 1,274.73 points, or +6.6%.

Trading volume on US exchanges was relatively light, with 15.4 billion shares traded vs average of 18.3 billion shares over previous 20 sessions.

Coming week’s distractions.

For investors, other factors have come into focus.

Most are turning their attention to 2nd quarter reporting season, with a focus on how Trump's on-again, off-again tariffs are going to affect major US companies.

Below are some of the big wigs, reporting their earnings.

According to LSEG, analysts are expecting S&P 500 companies to increase their Q2 earnings by +5.7% YoY, with:

• Big gains from tech companies.

• Declining profits in energy, consumer staples & consumer discretionary.

As Landsberg Bennett Private Wealth Management, Chief investment officer, Michael Landsberg commented:

• Expectations for S&P 500 earnings seem a little low.

• Much of Q2 2025 was marked with tariff and trade issues. That may have caused some dislocations in earnings.

Quarterly earnings

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 - $JPMorgan Chase(JPM)$, Wells Fargo, BlackRock, Citibank.

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 - Johnson & Johnson, Bank of America, ASML, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, $United Continental(UAL)$.

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 - $Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing(TSM)$ , Netflix, Norvatis Ag, Pepisco.

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 - American Express.

Economic Reports.

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 - Consumer price index (CPI).

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 - Producer price index (PPI).

Wed, 16 Jul 2025 - Fed Beige book.

Thu, 17 Jul 2025 - US retail sales. US Import price index.

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 - Consumer sentiments (preliminary).

Res. Bank of Cleveland, CPI forecast.

The Federal reserves bank of Cleveland has forecast a rise in June 2025 CPI. (see above)

• Headline inflation (YoY) will be 2.64 vs May 2024’s 2.4%.

• Core inflation (YoY) will rise to 2.95 vs May 2024’s 2.8%.

Bloomberg consensus forecast is:

• CPI rise to 2.7% in June, up from a 2.4% increase in May.

• Core CPI rises to 3% over the year, up from 2.8% in May.

AI-Play Importance.

According to LPL Financial, Chief technical strategist, Adam Turnquist:

• Market gains have been driven by AI and tech stocks.

• Just 5 stocks — Nvidia, Microsoft, Meta, Broadcom & Amazon — have contributed over 50% of the S&P 500’s returns across the past month.

Magnificent 7’s Performances.

As of 10 Jul 2025, the Magnificent 7 tech stocks — Amazon, Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia and Tesla — accounted for 32.6% of the S&P 500’s market value, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices. (see below)

It is evident that $NVIDIA(NVDA)$ is the top contributor, hitting the $4 trillion market cap for the briefest moment - a first for any IT company on the US bourse.

No guessing required on why $Tesla Motors(TSLA)$ has performed poorly, falling below the $300 support level, before crawling above it to close off the week.

Tesla’s latest robotaxi venture is likely to hit a speed bump, very soon. (see below)

2 Main takeaways:

Jonathan Morrison, a known Tesla critic, to lead NHTSA signals a likely increase in regulatory scrutiny for Tesla, especially amid (a) ongoing feuds between Trump and Elon Musk and (b) heightened concerns over Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) safety record.

Tesla’s latest robotaxi rollout is highly likely to face tougher oversight and possible delays under Morrison’s leadership, as NHTSA could (1) intensify investigations and (2) demand more transparency around safety data.

All these possible coming events, as Morrison is expected to have his confirmation hearing in the Senate on the week beginning 13 Jul 2025 and could take up his designated role shortly after.

Coupled with:

• The recently passed Tax bill that has eliminated virtually all subsidies to EVs and renewable energy, potentially harming Tesla in the US.

• Drastic dwindling sales in EU and China (Tesla’s largest market).

It is the setup for a perfect storm down the horizon.

Could this be the reason why Tesla has pushed back its annual shareholder meeting to November 2025, the as-late-as-possible date for an overdue annual shareholder meeting.

Rise & Fall.

Tesla is on track for a 2nd straight year of declining sales as its EVs deliveries fell -13.5% in Q2 2025 alone.

Shares are down -38% since hitting a record high in December 2024 (see above), with the automaker pinning its hope to pivot to self-driving technologies for future growth.

Even that seems gloomier now, with the appearance of Morrison, courtesy of Trump.

While it is disheartening to see US digressed to the point, where feuds between billionaires and elected officials are settled through regulatory agencies.

Then again, there are serious concerns about how safe Tesla’s FSD really is. Really don’t need another death to cement that fact.

Karma Is a B*#ch !

The treatment that Musk is getting from Trump, is no different to what Mr CEO, has done unto the Biden administration, really. (see below)

Elon Musk's companies, primarily Tesla & SpaceX, received a significant increase in government subsidies, contracts, & aid, during Biden’s presidency.

According to multiple analyses, Musk's firms have benefited from over $38 billion in government spendings, and tax credits over the past 2 decades.

Nearly 67% (or ⅔) of the $38 billion (about $25 billion), was allocated in the last 5 years, that largely overlaps with Biden’s tenure

Against his ‘visionary’ judgement, he too “bit the hand that feeds him” by buying the election for Trump.

In essence, he created this mess (for himself) really, leading Tesla to become Magnificent 7’s weakest link. If only he knows then, what he knows now. Karma is a b*#ch. alright!

Remember to check out my other posts. (See below). Help to Repost ok, Thanks.

Must Read: Click on below titles to access. Repost to share, Like as encouragement ok. Thanks.

• DAL Q2 earnings cont'd lift US market on Fri ? Fri, 11 July. Picked post.

• MP +50% Surge - Peak or just Starting ? Fri, 11 July. Ideal post.

• DAL zooms higher in US market rally ? Thu, 10 July. Ideal post.

• Do you think CPI inflation data will drive US market lower this week?

• Do you think Tesla’s robotaxi will hit the much anticipated speed bump that could be fatal ?

If you find this post interesting, give it wings! ️ Repost and share the insights ?

Do consider “Follow me” and get firsthand read of my daily new post. Thank you.

@Daily_Discussion

@TigerPM

@TigerStars

@Tiger_SG

@TigerEvents