To The Moon

$On Holding AG(ONON)$ $Nike(NKE)$ $adidas AG(ADDDF)$ 

🪜 Multi Timeframe Breakout Structure Is Strengthening

I am seeing a powerful structural pivot across the 30m and 4H charts that signals a real change in trend behaviour. Price has reclaimed the short term cloud, lifted into the upper Keltner envelope and produced clear divergence across the 13, 21 and 55 EMAs. This type of spacing normally appears when accumulation shifts from opportunistic to deliberate. The earnings gap that carried price from the mid $30s into the $40s reset the entire volatility landscape and created the foundation for this breakout.

👟 Short Term Momentum Confirms Institutional Rotation

Momentum on the 30m chart has been exceptionally clean. Price is respecting the upper Keltner boundary while forming higher troughs. Sellers have been unable to force a meaningful mean reversion. When short side positioning fails to defend key moving averages, latent pressure builds and squeezes often accelerate. The current structure resembles that early compression phase.

📊 Extended Compression on the 4H Chart Signals Expansion Ahead

The 4H Bollinger Bands contracted for more than two months from September into early November. Contractions of that length typically precede multi week volatility expansions. Price has stepped above the upper band while using the midline as dynamic support. That combination is one of the most reliable continuation patterns in established technical frameworks. The zone between $41.80 and $42.20 has become a reaccumulation platform. Maintaining control over this zone keeps the breakout structure intact and exposes the next liquidity pocket between $44.80 and $45.

📈 The 50 Day Crossover Adds a High Probability Quant Trigger

The 50 day crossover signal introduces a statistical edge that is rare in this category. ONON’s historical performance shows an average 30 day forward gain of +18.2% with a 100% win rate. Very few consumer discretionary stocks produce a signal with this track record. When a high win rate trigger aligns with multi timeframe compression and fundamental acceleration, the continuation probabilities improve significantly.

💼 Fundamentals Are Accelerating Faster Than Any Peer in the Sector

The fundamentals now carry real weight. Revenue has grown at a 53% CAGR over the past five years. Q3 delivered CHF 118.9M in profit, a 289.8% year on year surge, lifting trailing twelve month profits to $170.88M. Asia-Pacific expanded 109%, apparel rose 87% and direct to consumer revenue climbed 35%. Gross margins strengthened to 62.5%, supported by premium pricing and operational leverage. Guidance now points to 34% revenue growth for the full year on constant currency.

⚡️ ONON’s Growth Curve Is Diverging Sharply From Nike

The competitive spread against Nike has become striking. ONON is guiding to 34% sales growth, while Nike faces a 9.84% contraction to $46.31B. Wholesale for Nike is up only 5%, and direct sales have declined 8%. ONON’s curve continues to steepen while Nike’s flattens. This is how category reshaping begins and it is extremely rare for a challenger to maintain this velocity over multiple cycles.

🔥 Short Interest Provides Additional Squeeze Fuel

Short interest sits at 14.73M shares, or 4.51% of float. Elevated positioning, rising volume, strong EMA fanning and consistent volatility structure form a continuation scaffold with high conviction. This morphology often precedes directional phases where price accelerates quickly.

🔍 Market Structure Suggests This Breakout Has Room to Extend

The broader market is responding to a blend of structural earnings power, brand momentum and technical authority. I am tracking cloud retention, widening EMA divergence and the next high throughput session. If these confirm, this breakout has meaningful room to extend.

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